Churchill 11/07/2018 by Hunter Ulwelling (@hunterandhorses)
Race 1– 1st #9 Gentle Ruler is the morning line favorite trained by Ian Wilkes, and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr and ran a 79 Beyer last out which is very good for a maiden race. She has been on the board 7 out of 10 starts.
2nd #2 Dakota Diva also just ran second last out by a neck, as Kellyn Gorder seeks his first win of the meet. The horse has had some decent races in the past, but the losses haven’t been terrible either, usually within a couple lengths of the winner.
3rd #6 Snuck Out might have odds of 12-1, but I think she is capable of hitting the board. Her losing margins are decreasing (meaning she is not losing by as much as she first was) and was also a $500,000 Keeneland purchase.
Race 2– 1st #7 American Mandate is trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr, so he has some solid connections. Also has the best Beyer number in the race. The losses are not bad, I think his third start could be the charm.
2nd #5 Mr Dumas has fired some decent works recently, and his trainer John Ortiz has been having a great year. $100,000 purchase at OBS April this year, and has very good breeding. He is a first time starter.
3rd #4 Chase The Ghost ran a much improved race last out, but still has some improving to do to win. The first loss was by 22 lengths and the loss last out was by 6 ½ lengths. Miguel Mena is riding, Ian Wilkes trains.
Race 3– 1st I didn’t take #3 Proud Dixie last out at Keeneland but I will take her here, if I can figure out a way to toss out her last races before last out. I think this horse just had a tough time for awhile, but I think she could rebound.
2nd #4 Dancing Waves(IRE) needs this easier race. Her running pattern is very inconsistent and it troubles me a little bit to take her on top but I will try her for second.
3rd #8 Midnight Blvd won her first race two years ago by 30 lengths. Wow, can’t say we see that often! She is fresh coming off of a little break. She hasn’t ran that way since, but still manages to hit the board. Anthony Granitz trains.
Race 4– 1st #7 Happy’s Reflection has two races, and two seconds. That looks like the best in the race. Chris Hartman did very good at Keeneland, but is looking for a win here, Julian Leparoux rides.
2nd #4 Crafty’s Dream has a couple of really good races, and two really bad races. I think this horse will run better on the dirt, she has a second place on it already, and the synthetic surface isn’t her thing.
3rd #11 Mom I Forgive You is 10-1 morning line, but I am taking a chance with Brad Cox’s first time starter. The Overanalyze filly has average work outs, but I think she maybe is overlooked.
Race 5-1st #3 Floss Dancer is trained by Al Stall Jr, ran 4th by 10 lengths last out, dropped down a little in class here which I think will be a benefit for this horse.
2nd #1 Laser Ladee belongs at this level, which she showed last out by running a decent second place. Her first race wasn’t any good but the class drop helped her, Joe Sharp trains, Gabriel Saez trains.
3rd #10 Vortices has earned back her purchase price without even hitting the board. She is on a bigger class drop than Floss Dancer, but her last race was not good. I hope things can change here.
Race 6– 1st #7 Rushin Tothecircle took a while to break his maiden but eventually won, still at the maiden special weight level, but after that was put into some tougher company. He could turn out to be a nice Mineshaft colt.
2nd #5 Flight Risk just lost by a head last out. Only problem is now he has been upped in class a bit, off of a claim. If he keeps up his recent running pattern, he will be okay here.
3rd #10 Lngtermrelationship has ran in a couple of stakes race but didn’t seem to be to competitive. So he has gradually been dropped in class, but hasn’t ran much better. A hard horse for me to take.
Race 7– 1st #7 Golden Award is I’ll Have Another’s half little sister. She comes off a rather easy win at Belmont, lightly raced, but patience could be the key with this girl. Gaffalione and Mott team up here.
2nd #4 Aerial Assets ran second a month ago in a Keeneland allowance race. She also hasn’t been off the board in six races.
3rd #8 Aife was recently claimed, and in eleven races her worst race she ran was a 5th place in a difficult allowance optional claimer at Presque Isle over the summer. Comes off of a win at Keeneland.
Race 8– 1st #2 Upset Brewing won’t live up to her name in this race (Morning line favorite), and comes off of a second place in an allowance race at Keeneland. She has ran in some pretty tough spots including graded races and has eight second place finishes. Pretty solid.
2nd #4 Glorious Hour is a California shipper who’s last four races have been anything but impressive. Hopefully the change of scenerary and a new jockey help her.
3rd #5 Hint of Mint won here at Churchill last fall. Has had a little over a month without a race, but her last race she only lost by 1 ¾, Channing Hill rides.
Race 9– 1st #8 Galton has been around the block a couple times, at eight years old, he still runs pretty respectable and hasn’t shown signs of aging. He has banked $658,260 over his years, just won one two back, Joe Sharp trains.
2nd #2 Applicator just comes off of a win at Indiana Grand, and is trained by Brad Cox. He was claimed earlier this year for $80,000 which is a lot of money for a five-year-old.
3rd #4 Almoreb recently broke his maiden and followed up with a couple of nice races that prove he is capable to run at this level.
Race 10– 1st #1 Key Moment takes a needed drop in class, and it isn’t often you see Candy Ride horses run for this low of a tag, but it’s bound to happen at some point. A hefty $200,000 purchase price now runs for $15,0000.
2nd #8 Undisputed Justice has ran second twice times in a row and at this level could easily do it again, but at a new track with a new jockey.
3rd Let’s try something interesting and take #5 Revenge Is Sweet. Yes, that last race was absolutely brutal, but I am a fan of class drops (as you’ve probably gathered to understand by reading my picks), and this horse is going from the toughest possible race, to the bottom of the barrel.