Here we go for another to Thursday at Churchill. It looks like there’s some rain in the area coming in early afternoon and not sure what the track will be like at post time and still unsure if the races are going to remain on the turf. My picks for the turf races are as if they are staying on turf and please disregard if they come off.
Had a great day last Thursday at Churchill with a few winners and if you took my top picks you would’ve had the last pic five the paid over $1000. Let’s have another one of those days today.
Race 1
3-5-4
3- Sargeant Drive – Best part of the day should get some really nice value and you can start the day off with a nice winner. I made trip notes for his race April 11 at Keeneland and was waiting for him to come back and he shows up here in a nice spot after being gelded. Very nice workout on May 26 coming in off a short layoff.
5- Mississippi – but this horse last out and really didn’t run much at all. I like the race on April 11 at Keeneland where he ran without blinkers for the first time in a while and ran very well. If you look in his past performances when he race without blinkers he did well and had very nice speed figures I’m looking for that today.
4- Verve’s Humor- I really like the last three races this horse ran at Oaklawn, his first with blinkers on April 13 was ultra impressive and had a big rally. I think he had too much to do last time but looking for a smarter ride today.
Race 2
4-2-1
4- Moti – I love the connections here and I also like the drop down to less than the recent purchase price. If you exclude the turf start he has raised very well and his other three races and I’m looking for a similar spot today.
2- Front page – New trainer big time drop-down quality connections should like the added distance. Lots of things to like.
1- Entry – both parts of the entry look good in this lower level maiden race and will take money at the windows. I’m a little reserved as between both of the trainers they have a total of one win this meet.
Race 3
6-1-7
6- Gentrified – The guy was on fire down the lane last time out at Oaklawn. There is some concern over the riders 2% win percentage at the current meat but feel this horse can do very well at the distance as a reference look at the November 17 race at this distance.
1- WB Smudge – Asmussen claims one for himself out of a slightly lower claiming level a couple weeks ago. I like the works leading up to this race like the connections and should do well at the distance.
7- Ceeky – A few things to like with this guy today, four of his last five races of been very well he has two wins at Churchhill and he’s getting back on a fast track if it stays that way.
Race 4
1-3-6-8-9
1- Made to be – I am hoping she finally gets a fast track here today after running on to wet surfaces in her only two races of her career. The drop-down in Clash should really help this Filly and the connections are definitely a positive.
3- Bling Springsteen – Was rushed early last out and also took some money and did well for her first start. Trainer is 20% with his maiden 2nd time starters and he shows some great numbers so far this meet.
6- Blue sky in Dixie – A bit of a value play here but I like the breeding I like the amount of workouts and I like the trainer jock combo. She may be leaning to turf for the Ron but shows up here at a fairly reduced level.
8-9- I just added these two as definite value plays as there are things to like and put in both your vertical and horizontal wagers.
Race 5
3-10-11 turf only
3- Love your buttons- this five-year-old comes in third off layoff and raised outstanding on April 27 at Churchill. If you look down his lines you’ll notice that he does very well in this type of claiming event and should be coming at the end if it remains on the turf.
10- Sekondi – May in fact come second. If the turf is favouring speed this guy should be there at the end. He may be the controlling pace.
11- Almoravid – lots to like here and I almost had him as my top pick. Comes in off a long layoff and drop down considerably in class. The workouts have been tremendous and the trainer has solid numbers with long layoffs.
Race 6
4-1-7
4- Mt. Brave – Great breeding amazing workouts and awesome connections I’ll mix well with this first time starter. Should get 3-1 and that would make me a happy guy.
1- La Chancla- this very high price two-year-old sale purchase looks like she is ready to roll at first asking. Check out the May 7 and the May 24 work outs as they are phenomenal for a first time three-year-old Filly starter.
7- Club Car- has a bit of experience and has run to quality races so far. Her last speed figure was very good and she reads very well in fast fractions.
Race 7
4-1-5-6
4- Principe Guilherme- I just realize that I really hope that Santana and Asmussen have big days today as I’ve picked many of their horses. This guy seems to always take the money and finish on the fringes. He started his career out in a huge fashion back in late 2017. I like the fact that blinkers are added off this month long layoff and we should be able to see what this high-priced yearling can do.
1- Texas wedge- if you look hard at his past performances he really only has one bad race and that was in the grade one at Santa Anita in September 2017. I love the workouts coming in here and I like the fact that Miller has brought them in from California.
5- Strolling – A bit of a longshot here but really has done nothing wrong in 2019. I think court consider just off the pace and stay with this group.
6- Line Judge- not much value here as he takes a lot of money and his races but it would be hard to leave off a ticket.
Race 8
3-6-7 Turf only
3- Speed to Victory- Amoss has great numbers with horses running for the first time with him. This girl should race much better on the turf that she did in the dirt in her first race and only race at Oaklawn earlier this spring. Great turf connections will be looking for I win in the final tonight.
6- Freudian finish- you should get a bit of a value here for those three-year-old Filly who tries to tour for the second time. Her first race at the fairgrounds in March was quite acceptable and now reduces the distance coming in off some nice works.
7- Stylishly- has been touring the country and shows up at her fifth track in her sixth start. I do like the connections as they have been bringing fresh horses to the track. Her last two races have been great and you will notice a consistent increase in your speed figures.
Good luck today and let’s hope the track stays quick and the rains hold off.
@shawn55murphy