Race 4- CLM 16K N2L 1m turf
- The Start of the Late Pick 5 Carryover of $163K, kicks off with a Non winners of two lifetime going a flat mile on the grass. I think about 4 to 5 horse can win this race out of the 8 lined up to run here. I have a good feeling you will need to spread in at least the first leg and the last leg, just so you can try to make it into a pick modified pick 3.
- The first horse I like is the #1 Adios. I like Adios today because of his most recent win at GPW off of a two month layoff. She closed and broke her maiden after going 7 wide in the stretch. However that was for 12.5K, and she has to step up today but still is in her condition. Her beyers are slow but I think after that performance on the layoff, she might be fully cranked today.
- I like the three inside horses actually, so I’ll go to the #2 Slewys Chosen One as my second choice(in no particular order). He will be on the lead or possibly dueling with the #5 Zodiac Princess which is another horse I like. I think the pace will be hot early and Jeffery Sanchez could sit off but I think if he sits off, this filly will not run to the capacity she is capable of running. Her beyers are about 15-20 better than the #1 Adios, but I think the pace duel and possible pace pressure from the two heavy longshots can set this horse up for failure early. Have to use her in case she gets loose.
- #3 Noble Intentions might be my favorite horse in the field. She just broke her maiden after a 7 month layoff and trying turf for the first time. She won easily for 12.5K and earned a 55 beyer. I have seen this horse run at Parx before and I could tell she wanted no part of the dirt, so after than dominating turf performance I have to use her today and to be honest, she is one of my “A horses” in this field.
- #5 Zodiac Princess is the other speed and should be on the pace early. Santos is an aggressive rider when he needs to be, and today I think he needs to be in order to solidify the early pace. Consistently hangs at his distance in beaten 16K. Drops into her condition today so possible class relief and possible early pace control means you have to use her. I like the #6 Party Dancer a little bit and I would use on deeper tickets. Paco can probably outride most of these jockeys and she is a horse who is dropping in by about two class rankings.
- Finally the #7 Aguas Coloradas is a horse who just broke her maiden and comes into her second start today. Batista can ride with the best of them down there right now and she is coming back after a strong performance. Can rate off the speed and she can be an A or B horse on most tickets.
Race 5- Maiden 50K Dirt 7F
-I like 2 horses here in this field of 8. Two other horses I would recommend if you have an unlimited bank roll.
My main four horses start with the #3 Irish Thunder who has just missed last time. Rendon is riding lights out down there and for a trainer like David Fawkes this horse should be ready to go. She has been wide in majority of her races and hopefully can just sit a cleaner trip today. 7F should hit this filly right between the eyes.
#6 Don’t Get Khozy should be able to improve on the drop and she gets Paco today. This filly just worked a bullet on October 1st, which means they have her fully cranked in my opinion. I like today as a good price. #7 Mudslide Wicked should be the pace with Berrios. Mejia does always run his horses over their heads so she could be in a spot too big for her, but if she gets loose she gets loose. #8 Dazzling Bride gets Miguel Vasquez today and should be right near the lead early, and if the #7 quits she could get the first run on the leader.
Race 6- 7 ½ F Turf OC32K
- I have 3 “A Horses” in this race, and 1 “B horse”. My first “A Horse”, #3 Island Commish is a young colt who gets blinkers for the first time and shows some early pace which is always a strong angle for me. The fact Paco is also aboard and can be aggressive with this horse can be beneficial.
- #5 Saint Benevolence is also a contender in here. Miguel Vasquez can get this horse in the right spot and he is dropping in from stakes company. If he runs the way he did in his maiden victory he can run huge today. Should be right there in the mix.
- Finally my last “A Horse” is the #8 Yes for Less. I think Yes for Less should be able to sit the exact trip needed to win today. To be honest, Yes for Less is my top choice this race too.
- The only “B Horse” is # 2 Mr . Cesco. I think Mr. Cesco can close well but I think he might not be quick enough. Zayas could get the most out of this horse though and on deeper tickets I would use.
Race 7- CLM 16K Beaten 6F Dirt
- I have 2 “A Horses” here and the first one is #2 Blings Express. I think Blings Express, will ultimately get the early lead, and is also rounding into form coming into this race. He can also rate right off the speed and pounce like he did before his layoff. Is he the same horse has in his previous years or is he just too old now. That’s my only concern but I still like him as an A horse.
- I really like the #7 Santiamen. Santiamen is trained by Antonio Sano and ridden today by Leonel Reyes. I think there is enough speed early on today that this can set up for Santiamen. He is dropping in from OC 62K and into a Beaten 16 which should suit him better. 8-1 ML odds seems like a gift to me.
Race 8- 5F Turf MD 20K
- I have no real “A Horse” here but I like a few choices.
- #3 Cookie Cove, is a filly dropping in from MSW and Maiden 40K’s in which she never showed much promise. Dropping in today to Maiden 20K and third time turf should help. She checked sharply last time out and never ran on after that. Hopefully a clean trip can have her right in the mix at the end.
- #4 Aunt Irene is a first time turf starter that should tons of early lick on the dirt in debut. However in the dirt debut she ended up fading to third. Stays in the same class ranking and turns to turf for the first time in which she has some solid breeding for turf which should help. She carries over that dirt speed to turf and she could run away on this field and win.
- #11 Run Tiz Run is a decent priced filly who could shake things up in the last race of this sequence. Christian Torres gave this filly virtually the best trip she ever was given and almost won her first race that day too. Today she comes into this race with a new trainer and Torres back aboard. The slight layoff should mean she is back into shape, but with a Trainer like Rick Creel who is 0-44 when new horses start for the first time in his barn, makes me wonder if she really is ready to go or if she will need a race.
BALLER TICKET STRUCTURE
Race 4- 1,2,3,5,7
Race 5- 3,6
Race 6- 2,3,5,8
Race 7- 1,2,6,7
Race 8- 3,4,11
Total Ticket Price- $240
MAIN TICKET STRUCTURE
Race 4- 1,2,3,5,7
Race 5- 3,6
Race 6- 3,5,8
Race 7- 2,7
Race 8- 3,4,11
Total Ticket Price – $90
ECONOMY TICKET STRUCTURE
Race 4- 2,7
Race 5- 3,6
Race 6- 3,5,8
Race 7- 2,7
Race 8- 3,4,11
Total Ticket Price- $36