Golden Gate Fields, located near San Francisco, has a big jackpot up for grabs on tomorrow’s card. The early pick 5 has a carryover of more than $24,000, and we’ll try to take it down on the latest edition of Carryover Chatter.
EARLY PICK 5: $27
RACE 1: 4, 5
RACE 2: 4
RACE 3: 5, 6, 7
RACE 4: 1, 2, 5
RACE 5: 2, 3, 4
We’ll kick off the sequence with a maiden claiming race for 2-year-old fillies at 5 1/2 furlongs on the synthetic main track. The likely heavy favorite here is the 4, She’s a Spy, who will be a single on many tickets. She’s shipping up from Del Mar, where she finished fifth in a maiden claiming race after racing wide. Given that the level of racing isn’t quite as high at Golden Gate as it is at Del Mar, bettors will likely flock towards her. I will certainly use her, but will allow for an upset and throw in the 5, Noonshine. She improved fourteen brisnet points in her second career start, earning a 66 while finishing sixth last time out. That’s not far behind the 68 She’s a Spy ran in her debut. If Noonshine improves a little more, or She’s a Spy doesn’t run back to her debut, Noonshine could pull off the upset, and knock a lot of tickets out of the pick 5.
Race 2 features another heavy favorite, in the 4, Foreverinsummer. I will not try to beat her, and will make her the “key” horse in the sequence. She has two major advantages over the rest of the field. First of all, her speed figures are superior to everyone else’s. She consistently runs brisnet figures of at least 75. Only three horses in the field have done it even once in recent races, and two of those horses earned them while going six furlongs. This race will be at one mile, so it’s a big unknown if they can stretch out their speed. Secondly, Foreverinsummer is the only strong front-runner in the field. It looks as if she’ll go right to the lead and set an uncontested pace, leaving her with plenty of energy to run away from the field in the end. If you want to try to beat her, I would recommend the 8, Benchmark’s Rose, who earned a 75 while going a mile last time out.
The third race is a competitive allowance race at five furlongs on the turf course. We’ll go three horses deep in this leg. The 5, Gray Gem, ran well in his first start on the turf. He had a slow beginning, which is usually deadly in a short race, but he rallied well to finish a respectable fourth, earning a figure of 81. That’s one of the fastest figures anyone has earned on the turf this year, and with this being his third start off the layoff, he has the opportunity to improve even further. The 6, Synnin, has already won twice at this distance over the track. In fact, in fourteen tries over the Golden Gate turf, he’s won five times, and has come in the top three a mind-boggling 13 times. This makes him the most dependable member of the field. The 7, Plate Slide, got a great trip stalking the pace last out, and got up for the victory at five furlongs, getting a figure of 81 for his efforts. He’s run figures as high as 85 in the past, and a number like that makes him a very likely winner. With eight horses in the race, using three in this race provides decent coverage.
Race 4 is a maiden claiming race at six furlongs on the main track. There’s only six horses, but almost everyone in the field has a case to win. As such, we’ll use three horses again. The 1, His Legacy, has run figures as high as 71 in the past, and ran a 65 last out, in his first race off a nine-month vacation. He’s got some of the best brisnet late pace figures in the race, so he’ll almost certainly be heard from late. The 2, Ancestry, ran a big race last out, which was his first time out in more than a year. He made a decent rally from behind, finishing second and earning a figure of 68. If he could run a figure like that first off the layoff, he should be able to run even better this time around. Finally, the 5, Nonno Pietro, has raced just one time, earning a figure of 71 while finishing sixth against tougher company. He drops in class here, which should be an advantage. In addition, he has just that one start under his belt. That’s usually an advantage in maiden races, as he hasn’t proven that he’s a chronic loser just yet. In this race, we’re not using the two morning line favorites: the 3, Papa Caballero, and the 6, Beat the Chalk. As such, if we can get past this leg, we’ll have defeated the two favorites, and should be in good shape as such.
The fifth and final race of the sequence is a n/w1x allowance race at one mile on the turf course, featuring a field of eleven. We’ll go three horses deep in this one to wrap things up. The 2, Saburai, comes up from racing at the same level in Southern California. She should find some class relief racing at Golden Gate. The 3, Speakers, had a rough beginning last time out, but flew late to finish second, missing by just half a length, while earning an 83. That’s tied for the best last-out figure in the race. The 4, Desert Smoke, is the clear lone front-runner in the race, and has already won twice over the Golden Gate turf this year. If she can get an uncontested lead, she’s going to be tough to catch.
Overall, our ticket comes out to 2 X 1 X 2 X 3 X 3, which equates to a cost of $27. Best of luck if you’re playing along!