Churchill Downs has a Mandatory Pick 6 Payout on Sunday worth $61,122. Here is a walkthrough of the sequence and my opinions regarding it. Let’s hit it!
*The current forecast shows spotty showers and rain for most of the afternoon starting around 1pm*
Due to this I will be handicapping all the races for a sloppy racetrack.
Races 7 – 12
Race 7 is a Maiden Special Weight for two-year olds at 6 Furlongs on the dirt.
My top selection in this two-year-old maiden is #8 Little Menace. This son of Into Mischief was heavily bet on debut losing to Bango, who was second in an optional claiming event in his subsequent start. Into Mischief has been one of the hottest sires this year and does stamp his progeny with we track ability.
There are 2 other horses I would think about using. The first is the other Asmussen, #7 Shanghai’s Dream. This colt by Shanghai Bobby has raced 5 times this year with his best effort coming in his last. He is a progressive type that will be sitting midpack. If there is any pace pressure on Little Menace, expect this colt to be hitting his best strides late. The other is the #5 Speightstown Again. Speightstown Again ran 6th on debut but has been training forwardly since. Speightstown is another sire with great wet track pedigree.
A – 8
B – 5,7
Race 8 is an open $25,000 being run at 7 furlongs.
This race is a wide-open event that I will be spreading as deep as you can. My top pick is the #7 Hardly A Secret running for the Peter Miller Barn. Hardly a Secret has ran 9 races on an off going (9:2-3-1) finishing on the board in 6 of those races. He won at the level last out and will likely get a stalking trip right behind the leaders.
I will also be using the #3 Perfectly Majestic who is also running for Peter Miller. I do not know what to make of this horse coming off over a year long layoff. This gelding has run much faster races than all of these in here and has faced some very tough competition. I cannot trust the layoff and the fact he is in for a tag for the first time. I don’t trust but is a must use. #6 Conquest Windycity likes a wet track and will be out on the lead from the start. He was third, beaten a neck, at the $16k level and will be facing a lot of the same foes from his previous race here. Speed may play well on the sloppy track, keep an eye on previous races. The last one I will be using is the #8 Curlins Vow coming in first off the claim for Diodoro. Diodoro’s first off the claim numbers are gaudy and with a slight improvement could easily see himself getting his picture taken after the race. He will need to work out a trip as he is a closer.
A – 7
B- 3,6,8
C – 2,5
Race 9 is a Maiden Special Weight for two-year olds going a Mile and a sixteenth (8.5 Furlongs) on the dirt.
Keep an eye on race 7 as my top pick #4 No Shirt No Shoes ran against my top pick in that race on debut. It was great effort closing into a slow pace from dead last to finish third. If he can break better and get into position this Shackleford colt could make some noise at the finish line. Speed figure wise he towers over the field with the scratch of morning line favorite #6 Shared Sense.
A – 4
C – 9,5
Race 10 is an $30,000 Claiming race for three-year olds who have never won two races at a distance of 6.5 Furlongs.
My top selection in race 10 is the #8 Out Cold. He is coming into this race off a maiden breaking score at Ellis Park. He was able to take advantage of a hot pace and close with a flurry and won by a DQ. This horse can improve off that last effort which would put him first across the wire.
#5 Raphael is coming off a brief freshening since running third in a $25k Claiming N2L at Belmont. This horse has won off layoffs before and has ran well on an off racetrack.
#2 Miracle Hill helped push a strong pace against starter allowance company finishing sixth behind two others in this race. If Miracle Hill can set a more reasonable pace, he will be hard to pass near the finish line.
A – 8
B – 5,2
B – 1a
Race 11 is a non-winner of one, other than, Allowance race going a long mile and three sixteenths (9.5 F).
My top selection is #5 Icon for trainer Steve Asmussen. On debut he was put on the turf to put some bottom in him and came back in his subsequent start on the dirt breaking his maiden IMPRESSIVELY, winning by an easy 7 lengths. He broke in a tangle and was able to take advantage of a contentious pace. I will expect him to improvement off that effort as he was very green coming down stretch. If he is able to improve, he will be very tough to beat.
The #2 Chess Chief has had an impressive three-year-old campaign facing the best of his generation. He has had a brief freshening and having the blinkers come off. Dallas Stewart is not known for having his horses cranked off of a layoff and with the removal of the blinkers this makes me take a wait and see approach but is a must use.
A – 5,2
Race 12, The Pay leg of this Pick-6, is a maiden special weight for fillies going 6 Furlongs.
My top pick selection is the #4 Jilted Bride. She finished second on debut to a $350k filly out of Bayen named Bayerness (More than 20 times the stud fee). Bayerness came back yesterday and won an Allowance optional claiming $75k race. If she can run back to her previous races she will be tough in here, her wet track pedigree IS untested though.
I will be using a second time starter for Dallas Stewart #7 Speighty Shirl. Her wet track pedigree speaks for itself and has a right to improve on her debut a month ago. The 4th place finisher in that race came back yesterday and finished a close second.
#10 Lucky Dime is a must use finishing in the money three out of her 4 races. She almost is starting to feel like a bridesmaid but her speed figures put her near the top.
#3 Lipstikliesnlovers is a filly out of American Pharoah, who has been doing some great things in his freshman sire year. Eddie Kenneally is great with two year olds so don’t let this firster get by you at 12-1. Very consistent workout tab.
A – 4
B – 7,10,3
Here is the recap of my main ticket I’ll be playing:
R7: 5,7,8
R8: 3,6,7,8
R9: 4,5
R10: 2,7,8
R11: 2,5
R12: 4,7
At a $0.20 denomination this ticket would cost $57.60. Good luck to all that are playing!