Churchill Downs has a pick 5 carryover on Wednesday worth $119,514. Here is a walkthrough of the sequence and my opinions regarding it. Let’s hit it!
Races 6 – 10
Race 6 is a tough $20,000 claiming race for three-year olds and up that have ever won two races. The race is at a mile and a sixteenth (8.5 Furlongs) on the dirt.
My top selection in this tough race is the #6 Fra Mauro for Eddie Kenneally. He is coming into this race first off the claim for Keneally who has a 36% win rate when doing this move. In his last race Fra Mauro was allowed to sit behind the pace setters (who set an average pace) and was a neck away from getting through this condition. I expect him to get a similar trip and boasts the best last out Beyer Speed Figure (72).
The #8 Wild About Candy is the speed of the speed and is taking a drop in class. The #3 Candy Store is taking a 50% drop in tag but does not possess any early speed and will need a setup to win. The #10 Believeinholidays is another class dropper who is making a change of surface from turf to dirt. Cox is 24% with this move and does have tactical speed to be in position when the real running starts.
A – 6
B – 8,3,10
Race 7 is a non winners of 2 in their lifetime Allowance race with a purse of $97,000 for two year old fillies. This race is ran at a mile and a sixteenth (8.5 F) on the turf
My top selection in race 7 is the #8 Ask Bailey trained by Mike Maker. This filly by Run Away and Hide was last in the grade 2 Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland in October. In this race she broke second to last and was nearly 10 lengths behind. This filly was 7-wide coming around the final turn to close with a flurry before flattening out with a sixteenth left in the race. She finished third to eventual Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner, Sweet Melania. The #11 Witez finished ahead of Ask Bailey, however, with a better trip I would expect Ask Bailey to out kick her down the lane.
The #9 Ginger Kitty won her debut on the dirt but is much better bred for the turf being bred by Irish sire Red Rocks (who is out of one of the best turf sires right now, Galileo). His beyer on debut was a 54 on a surface she is not bred for. She should improve while switch to the grass and will have tactical speed to stay close. If #11 Witez or #14 Skygaze get in the are must uses in spread tickets. If #4 Morning Gold can show the speed she showed when she broke her maiden, she is in with a chance.
A – 8
B- 9
C – 11,14,4
Race 8 is a non winners of one allowance race for three year olds with a purse of $97,000. This allowance race is a one mile (8 F) contest on the dirt.
My top selection, and single, is the #7 Gun It trained by Steve Asmussen. This 2.6-Million-dollar colt by Tapit has faced multiple graded stakes winners including Ketucky Derby Winner Country House. He broke his maiden against eventual Louisiana Derby winner By My Standards and was third to Breeders cup classic participant, Owendale. He is easily the speed of the speed and has the back class to go along with it. He coming off of a layoff since April but I expect Asmussen will have this colt ready to go.
A – 7
Race 9 is an $62,000 Optional Claiming race for three year olds and up run on the dirt at 7 F.
My top selection in race 9 is the #8 Curate trained by Peter Miller. Curate is coming off a second-place finish in a $50k Claiming race in which he was claimed for Peter Miller from Steve Asmussen. Peter Miller this meet has won at a staggering 67% clip. He has tactical speed to sit close and will get first run at the pace.
#3 Done Deal won at this exact class back in October at Keeneland. He was able to get out to a comfortable lead and never looked back. With the other pace in the race starting from the rail, Landeros will be able to break and judge if he can get an easy lead or sit just off of #1 Telekinesis.
#4 Mojo Man boasts the fastest last out Beyer and was third to an off form graded stakes winning Do Share. #5 Alkhaatam and #6 Home Base we in the same race that #3 Done Deal won. The added distance will only help both of these close into #3 Done deal.
A – 8
B – 3
C – 4, 5, 6
Race 10 is the final leg of the pick 5 and it’s a tricky Maiden Special Weight going a mile and an eight (9 F) on the turf.
My top selection is #7 Freedom’s Flight. Freedom’s Flight in his last race was rank going around the first corner, so much so that Joe Bravo let him have his head which brought him up to the lead going down the front stretch. With all of the fighting this horse was almost able to break his maiden only being passed near the wire. I am expecting Santana to get him out of the gate and onto lead as there is a dearth of pace signed up for this race.
#9 Red Sorrell comes out of the same race as my top selection and just didn’t seem to want the added half furlong that the previous race was. If the #11 Third Edition gets into the body of the race, he could be dangerous. Coming out of the same last race as #7 Freedom’s Flight and #9 Red Sorrell, finishing a closing third. #3 Ramsey Solution is a dangerous horse for Wesley Ward. This gelding by Real Solution is bred top and bottom for distance races on the grade and could improve with an added furlong.
A – 7
B – 3,9,11
Here is the recap of my main ticket I’ll be playing:
R6: 3,6,8,10
R7: 8,9
R8: 7
R9: 8,3
R10: 3,7,9
At a $0.50 denomination this ticket would cost $24. If scratches occur look to the AE’s I pointed out above to add to the ticket. Good Luck!