It’s not going to be an ordinary Independence Day celebration at Arlington Park! They’ve got a big carryover in their pick 5 pool, worth $46,480! The sequence starts in race 4, with an approximate post time of 3:06 PM CDT.
This is a fascinating sequence of races. All five are competitive on paper; in my view, there’s no easy singles. I’ll go through each race and talk about who I’d use in each race. Note that this reflects all grass races being run on their original surface. If they are moved off the grass, I’ll post an alternate ticket on twitter: @thedailygallop.
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming $30,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
A crusty field of seven will line up to kick off this sequence, and it’s a field loaded with early speed. The top pick in this race, and the most likely single of the sequence, is the 3, Tough Stuff. If you take out an inexplicably dull race at Churchill Downs two starts back, he’s been in great form as of late, earning brisnet speed figures of 81 and 86 in his last two starts. In his last race, against similar company, he dropped to the back of the pack, but came zooming late to win going away. There’s a lot of horses who will be vying for the early lead, so expect him to sit off the leaders and make a big move on the turn.
If you want to use someone else in the field, the 6, Shogood, goes out for trainer Hugh Robertson, who is a very sharp 38% third off the layoff, and 22% on the year. This horse has the ability to go for the lead or rate, the latter of which could be very valuable.
Race 5: Claiming $35,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
Eight claimers will go on the lawn here, in another wide-open affair. The 7, Clear N Convincing, is 6/1 on the morning line, but I think you’ll be lucky to get half those odds. He broke his maiden in “clear and convincing” style at Belmont Park last June for Chad Brown, then went over the Larry Rivelli barn and cleared his n/w1x condition easily over this very same turf course. His brisnet figures of 85 and 84, respectively, were very sharp. He found himself in a bit over his head at Kentucky Downs, and was a flat eighth. He hasn’t been seen since then, but has been working steadily getting ready for his return, and retains the riding services of Jose Valdivia, who rode him to victory at this track last year. Look for him to sit mid-pack and make a steady, winning move.
The “other” Rivelli in the field is the 1, He’s Cheeky, who won against $20,000 claiming horses two back with a decent figure of 83. He’s got no early speed whatsoever, and Valdivia jumps off him in favor of Clear N Convincing. Still, he’s been competitive in his races since returning from a long layoff three starts back, so he’s got to be respected. The 4, Exprompt, held his own against tougher at Gulfstream Park, closing well despite having to rally into very slow paces. It would be wise for jockey Sophie Doyle to keep him near the pace.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
This race is a bona fide handicapping puzzle: there’s twelve maidens, only five of whom have experience on the grass. I’ll use one of those horses, and then use two lightly-raced contenders trying the lawn for the first time.
The 1, Ekaterinoslav, has grass experience, with a second and a third from five starts on the surface. Over the winter at Fair Grounds, he steadily ran figures in the 70s, including a near-miss against similar-quality rivals. He’s got a good post position for his running style, which should have him saving ground and making a move late.
The 9, Louie’s Kingdom, was well-backed on debut, going off at 2.4/1. He led most of the way before fading around the three-quarters point. Nevertheless, his figure of 79 is impressive for a firster, and Valdivia keeps the mount. Look for him to go to the early lead, in a race where it doesn’t look like there’s anyone fast enough to go with him early.
Also debuting in that same race was the 11, Hello America. He rated well behind Louie’s Kingdom, and while he passed him in the stretch, he couldn’t catch the winner, losing by 2 1/2 lengths with a decent figure of 83. Trainer Chris Block hits at 17% with horses first time on the turf.
Race 7: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile (Grass)
A competitive group of eleven n/w2L fillies and mares will go here, and I’ve narrowed it down to two horses. The 1, Helen Hayes, goes out for the dangerous Valdivia/Rivelli jockey/trainer combo. Her lone win came with a gate-to-wire score over this turf course last July, with a strong figure of 75. She’ll make her first start since January at Gulfstream Park, where she was hung wide around the first turn and lost all chance. If she’s forwardly placed here, look out.
The 4, Prado’s Encore, is fairly lightly-raced, with one win from nine career attempts. She raced against maiden special weight company all winter at Fair Grounds, and held her own, including a loss by just two lengths while racing wide all the way. Look for her to save ground and pounce.
Race 8: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Illinois-bred, 6 Furlongs
We’ll narrow this race down to three contenders.
The 5, Sword of Truth, is undefeated on the season, having won his last two races against $4,000 and $5,000 horses. In fact, he’s enjoyed great success against cheaper horses, winning five out of nine lifetime. He tries Illinois-bred allowance horses for the second time; he was soundly beaten when he tried them for the first time. However, on that day, he was restless in the gate and began very slowly, and it sounds as if his mind wasn’t on running. With a clear head, he should do much better.
The 6, Rock Can Tour, ran a big race first off the long layoff last out, recovering from a bad break and getting up to win against restricted claiming company at 13/1. You have to figure that he’ll improve some more second off the layoff, and that his closing kick will be used to full effect.
Finally, the 7, Little Mighty Man, makes his third start off the layoff, and has been improving since returning from a six-month stint on the bench. Last out, at this level, he showed some good closing kick to miss by just 3/4 of a length, while improving his figure for the fourth straight race. I’m expecting another good rally out of him.
THE TICKET
Here’s our UPDATED play for the Arlington Park pick 5, to reflect the races being taken off the turf:
Race 4: 3 6
Race 5: 1 2 8
Race 6: 7 11
Race 7: 3 7 11
Race 8: 5 6 7
With a 50-cent base wager, that tickets costs $54. Good luck to everyone playing along!