The Breeders’ Cup is finally here and there are some great races this weekend. The undercard at Keeneland is especially strong with five nice stakes races today.
Race 1: The Nyquist, 2yo, 6 and ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 4-1-7
I think the morning line might be a little funky in this race, so I’m not planning on getting 6-1 on Upstriker (4), but he makes a ton of sense to me in the opener. He was a sharp debut winner at Ellis, and many of the two year old races there this summer came back pretty strong. He made his next start in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity here, and he faded late. He returns to sprinting, as two turns is either not his game or not his game yet. The added stamina edge should help him run down some of the early speed. Highly Motivated (1) has two strong starts in New York, just missing in his debut, and drawing clear late to break his maiden last time at Belmont. He, too, has shown he’s comfortable sitting off the pace, which should serve him well at this distance. Assertive Style (7) is another one that debuted a winner at Ellis, but he hasn’t been seen since. He’s been working well for his return, for the Ackerman barn, which has done a lot of good with a small stable. It would be neat to see a son of Nyquist take down a stakes race named after his sire.
Race 2: The Songbird, 2yoF, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-8-11
There’s an overflow field of 14 here, and you’ll probably want a lot of coverage because this race seems absolutely wide open. I’m definitely shopping for a price, and I landed on Mona Stella (5) making her first career start on the dirt. She’s bred to be better to on the dirt than on the grass, despite her first two career tries coming on the lawn. Biancone does a great job getting his horses to perform at a high level on both surfaces, winning with 28% of his horses moving from turf to dirt. Her work at Palm Meadows on the main track on Saturday was really good and Florent Geroux picking up the mount is a good sign. Taylor’s Tourist (8) is also moving from turf to dirt, after finishing midpack in the Jessamine here last out. She cuts back to a sprint and returns to the main track. She does have a win on the dirt, breaking her maiden by over 9 lengths at Evangeline in August. I like her cutting back to 6 and ½ Furlongs here. Farsighted (11) is one of six horses that are competing in this spot after breaking their maiden at Keeneland last month. She fought hard to get the lead and leveled off nicely in the stretch to win her race by seven lengths.
Race 3: The Bryan Station, 3yo, 1 Mile and 1/8, Turf: My Picks: 6-3-2
This is another 14 horse scrum, with many live options. In an evenly matched field, I have to feel that the trip will be the key to who wins this race, and while I don’t love the price, I trust Fancy Liquor (6) and Florent Geroux to create a strong trip here. He’s been really good on the front end, but he showed that he can close as well, when he won the American Turf at Churchill from well off the pace. He breaks in the middle, so Geroux can send him, or sit off the speed, if there are some aggressive rides from the outer posts. The same could be said for Taishan (3) who is coming out of the same race, and had a similar trip, except he had trouble at the start. He is also versatile, and can create his own trip here. Leparoux sticks as he returns to the turf for second time in his career. I like betting back horses who take a big step forward in their first turf start, and the value for this one should be there. I hesitated picking him on top because I’m not sure if his big effort was a function of a pace collapse last out, but regardless, I think he has a decent shot in here. No Word (2) was a game second in the Belmont Derby last out when Gufo collared him in the stretch. He has been close up in stakes company, but hasn’t broke through to get the win yet. I prefer him more underneath.
Race 4: The McConnell Springs, F/M 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-7-6
I’m not in love with the two morning line favorites that are drawn inside in this spot. I’m leaning toward Wildwood’s Beauty (8) to rebound after a dull effort on the polytrack at Arlington last time out. I thought her race in the Madison here against better was pretty good. She’s gotten out of the habit of winning this year, but she was very good in 2019. I think she can wake up on the cutback with these. Unholy Alliance (7) was overmatched in the Honorable Miss last out against Come Dancing, but she was good enough to beat a quality field of optional claiming allowance horses at Saratoga two back. I think she can rebound here. Unique Factor (6) has been gradually improving since joining the Peter Miller barn a few starts back. She was sixth here in the Madison in July, but ran an improved fourth in the Rancho Bernando at Del Mar last out. I think she’ll be coming late against a softer bunch today.
Race 5: The G2 Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, 1 Mile and 5/8: My Picks: 9-12-13
Here we have yet another 14 horse head scratcher at an unusual distance on the dirt. Some of these are proven at longer distances, while others are stretching out this far for the first time. I might be crazy, but I think 50-1 Mirinaque (9) deserves a look here. This field is lined with question marks, so why not put a few bucks on a horse that is proven at the distance, as he won a Group 1 in Argentina at 1 Mile and 9/16 on the dirt (1/16 of a mile shorter than today’s trip). He’s managed to be a factor in large fields before, facing as many as 22 rivals in one race where he finished second. Who knows how the competition stacks up there, but his race in the Pacific Classic here behind Maximum Security, gives him a speed figure that isn’t too far off the par for this race. He’s third off a layoff and back on Lasix after racing without it last time. I don’t think he’ll go off at 50-1, but I think he’s worth a shot at 25-1 or better. Plus Que Parfait (12) hasn’t won a race since winning the UAE Derby last year. He ran well enough to be second in the Charles Town Classic last out (a three turn mile and an eighth race), and his best races have been at longer than 9 Furlongs. He’s never gone this far, but his pedigree suggests he can get the trip. Cupid’s Claws (13) breaks from a tricky post, but is coming off an easy win in the Toyko City last out at Santa Anita at 12 Furlongs. He showed that the switch to dirt was not an issue, and figures to be prominent in this race as well.