Welcome to Breeder’s Cup Saturday! The day we have anxiously awaited is finally here. There were some excellent races yesterday, including a monumental upset in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. I will once again cover the undercard for today’s races, as well as one Breeder’s Cup race for Saturday. Good luck to all!
Race 1: [F]SKMaddy-G3 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 4-8-2-9
Breeder’s Cup Saturday starts off with a bang, as we open with a Grade 3 stakes for fillies and mares sprinting on the turf. There is a ton of speed in this race, but these turf sprints are usually won on or just off the pace regardless of the fast fractions. #4 Just Grazed Me looked awesome last out, breaking well and stalking just off the leaders and powering past them turning for home. I imagine she will get a similar trip today, with a cozy inside draw sitting just behind the main leaders and start getting to them in the last 1/16th. Miss has been on the improve since switching to turf; don’t think we’ve seen her best just yet. #8 Girls Know Best will be winging hard on the front end, as she has made the lead in an astounding 8 starts in a row. Nothing wrong at all with running third to good stakes types Oleksandra and Morticia last out at Keeneland. She is ever dangerous on the front end, especially they way the turf has played at Santa Anita so far, but she hasn’t seemed to quite have enough gas in the tank to outlast foes for the final half furlong when trying stakes company. At 5 furlongs she would be the top pick, but there’s enough speed here to keep her honest, and I think there are enough quality foes in here where she may find herself leg weary deep in the stretch and ripe for an upset. #2 Don’t Sell owns a record of 4-3-1-0 at this distance at Santa Anita, suffering her first defeat last out. She hopped at the break last time, rushed up to contest the lead, and then found herself overmatched by Just Grazed Me deep in the stretch. She has the versatility where she doesn’t need the lead, which could be advantageous to her given the fact she probably won’t get it today. Expect her to get first run on the likely pacesetter, and we’ll see if she has enough in the tank to hold the others off.
Race 2: DamascusB100K 7 Furlongs
Picks: 4-5-3-2
Race 2 is an interesting field of 5 where both Sadler and Baffert have entered 2 each. #4 Flagstaff ran well in defeat last out, but he had the misfortunate of running into two buzz-saws in Omaha Beach and Shancelot. He meets no such foes here, and he should be able to make the lead or sit just off the pace if Victor prefers. He has to prove he can get the extra furlong, but he should be very tough to run down if he makes the lead in a fairly paceless affair. #5 Comical Ghost hasn’t run fast enough to win this race, but he is very lightly raced and has done all that’s been asked of him so far. He was not flattered by his last race when Rogallo and Candy Cornell both missed the board in their next optional claiming n2x race at the end of Breeder’s Cup Friday. However, he does have a good chance to make the lead if Flagstaff elects to rate, and without much other pace pressure the “other Baffert” could end up stealing this one. #3 Roadster will take plenty of money based on name recognition and star power, but this feels like a curious placing for him. After running in classic distance races and prepping for the Derby, Baffert elects to cut him back to a one-turn sprint and adds blinkers. I’m not sure this race is the ultimate target – perhaps a prep for something else down the road? He has the talent to win this on his best day, but not sure he will be fully cranked, and he has a disadvantageous pace setup to deal with unless stablemate Comical Ghost can efficiently pester Flagstaff on the front end.
Race 3: TwilDrby-G2 11/8 Mile (T)
Picks: 8-7-3-1
#8 Neptune’s Storm shipped east last out and scored a victory for the west coast, upsetting a field of some of the east-coast’s finest 3-year-old turf horses in the G2 Hill Prince at Belmont. He sat just off of a slow pace that day, moved up on the leader, and slowly but surely drew off. He has tactical speed to make his own trip, and he loves Santa Anita (6-4-0-1) and the 9-furlong distance (3-2-0-1). Always fires his race, and is 2 necks away from coming in on a 5-race win streak. The pick. #7 Ocean Fury runs like one who has been begging for more ground all along, and he already owns a win in his lone try at this distance. Versatile sort gives Bejarano options, as he’s won from on the pace as well as closed from farther back. He was dismissed at 14-1 last out when upsetting a number of today’s foes. O’Neill has this one going the right direction, as he has improved in each of his last 4 starts. Finds a few tougher rivals today, but he may stand the class test. #3 Nolde is a bad bob away from being unbeaten on turf, but this one feels like a bit of a vulnerable favorite in an open race. Has done nothing wrong in his time and figures logical here, but in a race with some live longshots I’m not sure how much I want Nolde at his morning line of 7/2. #1 Originaire was arguably the best horse last race, but he had a tough trip when hung very wide around the turns. He gets a rail draw today, and I expect Mike Smith to save all the ground for this one-run type. Not sure 9 furlongs is his best game, as he looks more of a true miler, but look for him late to fill out the exotics.
Race 6: Longines Breeders Cup Distaff -G1 11/8 Mile
Picks: 4,9,5,11
#1 Paradise Woods – This maddening mare is capable of running with the best horses in her division when she is on her game. However, she is wildly inconsistent and oftentimes throws in inexplicable clunkers. She has early speed, but I think she was massively compromised by the rail draw. Paradise Woods appears to hate kickback, and in most of her races where she can’t get the lead or get an outside stalking position she often quits running. I don’t think she is fast enough to make the lead here, and the inside draw ensures a rough trip for this inconsistent type. Doesn’t seem like we’ll get her best today. Pass.
#2 Ollie’s Candy – Ollie’s Candy was a surprising winner when beating out Secret Spice in the CL Hirsch at Del Mar this summer. She looked beaten that race, but then came back gamely to get a head in front at the wire. After winning impressively in front-running style, she inexplicably returned to her closing tactics in the Zenyatta, and the best she could manage was a nonthreatening third. Rosario takes the mount, so it’s unsure what type of ride we’ll see today, but not sure this filly is up to the task regardless of the trip. Pass.
#3 Street Band – This 3-year-old filly was plugging along picking up stakes wins at minor tracks until she stamped herself as a serious contender when she launched a furious rally to win the G1 Gotilion by over 2 lengths over highly regarded Guarana. To be fair, she had a very hot pace to run at in that race, and Sophie Doyle timed the ride perfectly. Nevertheless, this one runs like added ground will be to her liking, but not sure she will get the same setup today as she had last out. She fired a huge new top effort last out, and a repeat makes her competitive here, but I think a slight regression could be more likely. Exotics possibility.
#4 Midnight Bisou – What more can you say about this mighty filly? She is a perfect 7 for 7 on the year, she has turned away all comers, including Elate who will be taking on the boys in the BC Classic later on. Her Personal Ensign could very well be the race of the year. There isn’t much to knock about this filly, as she can win from just about anywhere and has silenced the doubters that she can get the 9 furlong distance. She is the most likely winner of the race, but she isn’t so much faster than a few others in here that she can just waltz to an easy victory. If a few others improve, they could give her a real challenge, and at a criminally short price there could be value in trying to get around her. Likeliest winner.
#5 Dunbar Road –Highly touted filly in the Chad Brown barn has had quite the start to her career. She tried facing elders for the first time last out, and found the waters perhaps a bit too deep. However, for a large part of the Keeneland fall meet the rail was absolutely dead, and the off-the-pace rally wide move was exactly where you wanted to be. She got stuck inside that entire race in the Spinster, so she ran fairly well considering. Horses often fire big races after efforts on a dead rail, and there is no doubt about her getting the distance after her romp in the slop going 10 furlongs in the G1 Alabama. Live longshot and win contender.
#6 Wow Cat – Wow Cat was supposed to be the next big thing when Chad Brown brought her over from Chile last year. Things haven’t quite gone according to plan since, as she has only amassed one win in her 7 starts here in the states. She is as good of a threat as any to run second, but she always seems to find one better. Was never a threat to Midnight BIsou in their last meeting, and don’t expect that to change here. Exotics Possibility.
#7 Secret Spice – This filly has some early foot, but the presence of Serengetti Empress means it’s unlikely Secret Spice can find her way to the lead. This feels like an ambitious placing, as this miss just doesn’t seem to want to go further than a mile after fading multiple times at 8.5 furlongs. She now has an extra 1/16th to manage. Talented to be sure, but huge stamina concerns. Would have preferred to see her in the F&M Sprint. Pass.
#8 La Force – Wins have been scarce for La Force lately, with only 1 win in her last 10 starts. She dances every dance and puts in her late bid, but her run style means she spots the field quite a few lengths. Would need an absolute pace meltdown and a few others to misfire to have a chance here. Pass.
#9 Serengeti Empress – Polarizing filly brings boatloads of speed to the table in a race that could be lacking a true pacesetter. She tried to rate last time in the Cotilion from the rail, but that clearly backfired as she slowly faded along. She arguably ran her best race in defeat in the G1 Test when running into superfreak Covfefe. Filly is capable of setting lightning quick fractions and proves stubborn to pass in the lane. There is a very real chance she gets loose on the front, and Santa Anita has played kindly to speed this meet. Don’t overlook at a big price. Live longshot and win contender.
#10 Mo See Cal – This filly ran a nice race when blasting optional claiming foes going a mile, but can’t imagine she gets that type of trip again with the speed to her immediate inside. Need-the-lead type probably isn’t fast enough to get to the front, but there’s no doubting that Paco will do his best to hustle her to the lead anyway. Seems highly unlikely she can make the lead and out-duel Serengeti Empress and also have enough in the tank to hold off Midnight Bisou and the other closers. Pass.
#11 Blue Prize – Blue Prize is arguably the most difficult mare to figure out in this race. She draws a difficult far outside post, so Joe Bravo will need to find a way to get over and save ground without getting shuffled too far back. She ran a strong race in the Spinster last out over a quality field, but one has to think race flow impacted that result as she was running over the best part of the track that day closing on the outside. Her prior race at Saratoga comes back fast, but that race was likely of suspect quality horses. She is probably the most likely horse to run her standard race, but she may need one or two others to run a bit lower than their standard in order to get top honors here. Do get the feeling this one may be overlooked for the sexier 3-year-olds though, so don’t sell too short. Contender.