TVG Breeders Cup Turf Mile
- Suedois (FR)- Castellano/ O’ Meara
- Suedois ran huge in America last time out, managing to get a 7 on the ragozin which is the best in over 2 years. None of the European jockeys are taking this mount so it came down to Javier Castellano which could be beneficial. Suedois just hasn’t been the same since his early career and has only won one race since 2017. Should be closing today and breaking from the 1 hole should help him be able to save ground.
- Lucullan- Luis Saez/ Kiaran McLaughlin
- Lucullan is really coming into form currently and is coming off his career best beyer number. He has won 3 out of 4 since coming back off the long layoff. His numbers since the layoff have been some of the best in his career as well. I think he is more of a Grade 2 or 3 horse so class might be an issue, but on a figure stand point, he competes. Should be closing today as well which doesn’t usually work too well in Southern California.
- Space Traveller- Tudhope/Fahey
- Timeform ratings on this horse are consistently over 105 and most of them as of late are above 110, which is a great sign. However, his Ragozin numbers are never better than a 10 and most are at a 10. He just doesn’t give me that x factor feeling and he also doesn’t get lasix today either. Should be mid pack or far back early and he moves late which seems to be a case for a lot of the horses lined up today.
- Trais Fluors- Lee/Condon
- I truly don’t see why these connections would come to the breeders cup with this horse. He isn’t that fast on the Ragozins and Boudot didn’t ship over with him either. I never heard of the jockey aboard which is a bad sign for me as I know or recognize the majority of the Euro jockeys that come over on big days like this. He seems to be a mid pack runner which could help him but I can’t see him competing today.
- True Valor (IRE)- Van Dyke/ Callaghan
- Van Dyke will find the winners circle this weekend but it might not come in this race. Coming off one of his best races to date with a 6 on the Rags and a 100 beyer, he should be in form. He seems to be a horse for course as well, which can only benefit him. Should be mid pack and be able to pounce on the turn. Will he have enough, I am not sure. I am sure he will be underneath on my tickets and if I manage to spread a lot in this race he would be on the ticket.
- Got Stormy- Gaffalione/ Casse
- Got Stormy is legit and you can tell from his form, his speed ratings, and the Rags that he is a step ahead of the 5 horses inside of him and probably 80-90 percent of this field. Gaffalione has done amazing with this horse and gets the call again today in the biggest race of his career. He loves the distance here which is a huge benefit. I think he might be my top pick but if not he is in consideration and will be on every ticket of mine.
- Bolo- Leparoux/ Gaines
- Bolo too me just seems like the horse that everyone sees in the big races but he never shows up. He did with the Shoemaker earlier this year at 32/1 and that was a surprise to me. He seems to just be slower than most of the field and probably outclassed. He will be close to the lead if not on the lead which can only benefit him unless there is a bias.
- El Tormenta- Da Silva/ Gail Cox
- El Tormenta ran his best race of his career last time out and beat Got Stormy and Lucullan which is huge since they are both in this race today. I think he is peaking at the right time and today could be a huge payday for him, his connections, and his backers. This is Da Silva’s last time at BC due to retirement so you know he will give it his all. Should be giving some pace pressure or be mid pack and pounce late down the lane. If he gets shuffled to far back the race for him might be over.
- Circus Maximus (IRE)- Moore/ Aiden O’Brien
- Circus Maximus will be one of the favorites but I see some flaws and some huge upside with this horse at the same time which is almost offsetting. Some positives are that he gets Lasix for the first time and also gets Blinkers for the first time. Another positive is that he has a Group 1 win at two different tracks and he has one of the best combinations of connections in the world. He should chase the leaders and hopefully with blinkers he can be calm and sit the right trip and pounce late. However, the Ragozin sheet numbers are consistent 10s and 12s which is super slow for this race and I hope the performance he gives are better visually than on paper.
- Without Parole (GB)- Irad Ortiz Jr./ Brown
- Chad brown sends this horse out for the first time in his barn. This horse seems to need to be super close to the lead and I also think he is going to need a race or two to really fire, but he has been working in America for months so maybe they are sitting on a huge effort from great connections at 20/1 ML. His Ragozin numbers in 2018 compete in this field but his two races this year are lackluster. If the layoff doesn’t scare you then be my guest but I will point somewhere else.
- Uni (GB)- Rosario/ Brown
- Uni has been on a roll over the past two years, and is a huge closer and has Joel Rosario aboard as usual. Multiple Grade 1 winner and has consistent sub 10 Ragozin numbers and is coming off of a 4 on the sheets and his career best beyer. Got Stormy has beaten him however but Uni had a bad trip and mistakes happen. Chad Brown points his horses to their ceiling and I don’t think Uni has reached that yet, so I think Uni is super live but I just don’t see too much speed so it might cost him if there isn’t a crazy pace.
- Lord Glitters (FR)- JP Spencer/ O’Meara
- I am not a fan of Lord Glitters at all, but besides my opinion, he seems to just never really show anything unless it sets up for him. He has one start in America in recent history and it resulted in a 6th in the Woodbine Mile in 2018. He seems to be one of those lazy horses that needs a lot of urging but when he gets a lot of urging he doesn’t want to respond. He seems to choose when he wants to try and I won’t be betting a horse that acts like that.
- Hey Gaman (GB)- Frankie Dettori/ Tate
- I am not a fan of this horse either, but the added lasix and Dettori aoard again who seems to give him the best trips are both beneficial. He seems to be slower than most in this field and he also seems to be outclassed. Seems to be a chaser in a field full of chasers or closers so I think he will get lost in the mix.
- Bowies Hero- Prat/ D’Amato
- Another closer in a field full of closers. Bowies Hero is a legit contender and I will be using him, but I think the outside post kind of hurts his chances. He usually runs around a 5 or 7 on the Ragozins which competes here. If he can run back to the run style he had back in the spring of 2018 he can win this race easily. Too many closers and a bad post are my only flaws with him, but Prat owns Santa Anita so Prat should give him his best chance at winning.
No real speed besides BOLO is really lined up for this field today. I think the most legit contenders from Europe are CIRCUS MAXIMUS and WITHOUT PAROLE. I think the Americans win this one, and I think UNI, LUCULLAN, GOT STORMY, EL TORMENTA and BOWIES HERO are the top of that group. I think Chad Brown can win this race and has two legit chances to do it. I think maybe WITHOUT PAROLE becomes a rabbit for UNI since there isn’t any real speed in the race. I think honestly, EL TORMENTA might be the best in the field though and especially the way he is coming into form.
My picks in order are
#8- El Tormenta
#11- Uni
#6- Got Stormy
#2 Lucullan
#9 Circus Maximus
Bowies Hero and Without Parole would be on my bigger tickets if I single or go smaller in other legs of the sequence.
Good luck and have a great day full of winners and thanks for sticking with The Daily Gallop.