Let’s go over the analysis of the Breeders Cup Sprint, always one of my favorite races, with pure speed on display:
#1 Catalina Cruiser – 4/1
I remember when this horse was thought to be the next great handicap horse in the country, about fifteen months ago. He is 7 for 8 lifetime, but hasn’t run in a Grade I since his Breeders Cup debacle last November. Furthermore, he has been in such a short distance since May of 2018, and, facing the best sprinters in the Us, he definitely has his work cut out for him. I imagine Joel Rosario will try to get him right behind the first flight, but then how much will leave him for the stretch. Don’t get me wrong, he is quick enough to go with the early leaders, but his best races have come when he can rate from just off the pace. I think 4/1 is too low of a price for my liking, if he were 5/1 or better you can maybe take a flier with him. Watch the board action before betting.
#2 Hog Creek Hustle – 20/1
Hard knock/ing three year old who needs a pace hot enough up front for that late run to be felt in the stretch. It is unclear that he will get that kind of scenario, having Shancelot and Mitole as the two best speed balls in here. It will be very interesting to see what kind of strategy veteran Mike Smith employs to have this horse closer to the pace and not compromise that late run. He has been competing exclusively against three year olds and six panels is way short of his best trip, which is seven furlongs. I think the best he can do is pick up the pieces for a minor award, and if you like him, put him at the lower end of your exotics.
#3 Firenze Fire – 12/1
This horse is one that can take advantage of a scorching pace duel, if it develops. A Grade I winner at 2, he has always been extremely competitive versus these horses, and Irad Ortiz knows him well, and will put him in a stalking position from the start. In his most recent start, I thought he had the measure of Imperial Hint, but the latter just didn’t go away and went by him over the last yards to score a nose win. I think in this race he can relax a little bit more to save energy for the stretch, and if he can find the space at the rail, he will be a very dangerous horse. 12/1 seems t be a fair price on him, maybe you will not get that dividend, but anything between 8 and 10 to one will be an acceptable payout for a horse who just missed a Grade I win in his last race.
#4 Mitole – 9/5
Definitely the most consistent horse in this division, having won five out of six in 2019 and nine out of thirteen lifetime, with three Grade I wins in his resume, two of them at seven panels and one at a mile (Met Mile). But the trip which he has endured in the majority of his races is the one that he will travel today, the six furlongs, in which he has won six out of ten. Ricardo Santana knows him well, as he has been his only jockey since the start of 2018, and I think he will sit right off the initial leader, who should be Shancelot. The Santa Anita main strip has not been kind to speed lately, so Santana will need to adjust to that important factor. His versatility enables him to be placed whenever his rider prefers, and he should be in every play you make on Saturday.
#5 Engage – 15/1
Has been injected new life since being transferred to the barn of Steve Asmussen, with two consecutive wins, including the Grade II Phoenix Stakes, a Win and You In for this event. His speed figures are definitely going in the right direction and all of his wins have come at this six furlong distance, so no doubt that, with the right setup, he will make his presence felt late in the race. With Jose Ortiz electing to get aboard Shancelot, Hall of Famer Johnny V inherits the assignment, and no one better to have at your side if you need a rider for your horse. He will come from way off the pace and if he gets the burning pace he needs, he can post the upset at 15/1. I prefer others, but will not surprise me if he arrives in time. If you get the 15/1 shown in the morning line, bet if you like him, as it seems as a fiar enough dicidend.
#6 Shancelot – 4/1
This one knows only one way to race; go quick from the start and try to stay the whole trip. And that is why trainer Navarro elected to switch jockeys, from Emisael Jaramillo to Jose Ortiz, a specialist in speed type horses. As with every Breeders Cup Sprint, there is plenty of early zip signed in. But from all of those, this guy is the quickest of them all, and that will be the strategy from his connections. Azs I mentioned before, the Santa Anita main track has not been kind to early speedsters, so Ortiz will need to be fast, but not lightning fast to have a chance to wire this quality field. He has a race already at Santa Anita, a big plus he has against the majority of this bunch, and he ran nicely against returnee Omaha Beach. If he can somewhat have an easy enough lead, he is a threat to score from the gitgo. 4/1 seems low for him, so maybe the exotics way is better for him (Exactas, Tris)
#7 Whitmore – 15/1
This grizzled old six year old veteran was second last year in this same race, out performing his 6/1 odds and losing only to the great Roy H. Things have not gone quite as good for him this year, with only one win in five tries, and been soundly defeated in all of them, up to his last effort at Keeneland. That day, he bobbled at the start and came flying at the middle of the track to fall short by just half a length in the Grade II Phoenix, whose winner Engage is here also. Is always nice to root for the old guy, and this horse has been nothing but an ATM for his connections, banking over 2.6 million dollars for them. Up to late last week, it was unclear if he was going to be making the trip to Southern California. Ultimately they decided to give it a go, but he needs to return to be close to last year’s form to have a chance for the big upset in here. Not seeing him at this stage of his career.
#8 Landeskog will be a scratch
#9 Imperial Hint – 4/1
Last year, he was the 1.60/1 favorite in this race, and was no match for Roy H., who beat him quite easily. After that, his trainer sent him for a prep flor the Golden Shaheen at Tampa and was beaten as the .20/1 prohibitive choice, and ran so so at Dubai. Four months later, he returned in the Vanderbilt at Saratoga and posted an upset, besting Mitole and others. On his most recent effort, he was bet down to .25/1 and was just good enough to post a nose win over Firenze Fire. So which Imperial Hint we will see today? The one of he Vanderbilt, who will be a logical contender to win, or the one that we saw on the Vosburgh, who will be a longshot to beat the favorite Mitole? Don’t get me wrong, when he is good, he can beat any sprinter in the country. But, at least this year, has lacked consistency. 4/1 seems to be a very legit Morning line, but play at your own risk.
#10 Matera Sky – 30/1
Japan invader who was good enough to get second money at the Dubai Golden Shaheen, beating amongst others Imperial Hint. His last two performances are nothing to brag about, but one was on the turf and the other one was over a good track, so he has excuses for both of them. Legendary Japanese jockey Yutaka Take is in Santa Anita and has spent the last week or so working the horse, a good sign on how confident he is of a good showing. His race in Dubai gives him a fighting chance in this group, so if you like him, you most probably will get a price very close to the 30/1 morning line. He is a six furlong specialist, with five wins and three seconds in twelve tries, so seems to me he is a very live longshot to at least get into the exotics.
How Will I play it:
My win money will be on Mitole. If I get close to the 9/5 odds of the morning line, I will bet $20 WP on him. On the Exotics front, will play the following:
Exactas: 4,6 with 4,6,3,5,9,10.
Trifectas: 4,6/3,4,6,9/1,3,5,9,10
On the Horizontals, the two I like the most are Mitole and Shancelot.
Good luck !!