Welcome to a unique Belmont day, where instead of ending the Triple Crown we will actually kick it off for the first time in the history of the race. The distance is shorter and the field took a few hits in recent weeks, but this is still one of our classic races and I am very excited to share my thoughts on the entire card this afternoon. Good luck to all those playing along, and have a wonderful Saturday!
Race 1 – 11:45am – The Drinking Before Lunch Stakes
9 – Striking Speed – very tricky race to start the day and the early pick-five, and I’m going with 2019 turf superstar Jose Lezcano on the front-running second-time starter (26%) for Linda Rice. The debut was a mile on the dirt and he tried to wire the field before being caught in the final 1/16th, and will now go the same distance on the lawn for a barn that hits with 19% on the surface change. Doesn’t look like an abundance of speed in here, so let’s get Jose back on track after his unlucky start to the meet. 9-10-1
Race 2 – Woody Stephens, $250k G1 – 7F, 3yo
2 – Meru – this field might be short, but it came up FAST on paper didn’t it? Outside of Shoplifted, the other four are all capable of booking it from jump and have proven wire-to-wire abilities. The favorite in here should be Echo Town for Steve Asmussen, but he jumps into graded stakes company off the optional claiming win at Churchill last month and will not have an easy go of it on the lead in this bunch. I landed on Meru after seeing both of his first two career starts at Monmouth last summer. Following those two romps he ran into a freak Independence Hall performance going a mile at Aqueduct in the G3 Nashua, then had a little bit of trouble finishing a close third to the aforementioned Echo Town last month. I think he’s the best candidate to sit off the pace and show the tactical speed to pounce in the lane, and the seven panels should hit him right between the eyes. Normally not a huge deal, the Jose to Irad switch could be noteworthy considering the current run of form for both riders. Cool race, and I’m looking to beat the ML fav both on top and in the exacta this afternoon. 2-1-4
Race 3
1 – Palomita – the “other Chad” theory doesn’t usually work on dirt, but why not take a stab? This filly was MUCH the best in the bad-beat second last-out and comes back again today at the same distance. The barn also sends out even-money favorite Indian Pride, and both of them could find themselves in a speed duel up front and this could all fall apart….but if they get a reasonable pace, and the favorite isn’t quite as sharp off the very long layoff I think Manny Franco could steal this thing at a price. 1-6-7
Race 4 – Pennine Ridge, $150k G2 – One Mile (Turf), 3yo
3 – Proven Strategies – the favorite in here will be Decorated Invader for Christophe Clement, and rightfully so. He ran a huge fourth in the BC Juvenile Turf after a Grade 1 win at Woodbine over this distance on turf, and most recently won on his return off the layoff in listed stakes company down at Gulfstream. All that said, he’s somewhat pace-dependent and I think can be had by a loose leader with distance capabilities. Enter Mark Casse and his speedy Sky Mesa colt who has hilariously appeared in two maiden races AFTER two very sharp grade 1 appearances. He finally graduated back in March and has since taken it to a higher level, just missing at 1 & 1/16th last-out against a very formidable foe while on the lead the whole race. He gets the major rider upgrade today and cuts back to the likely-preferred mile, and should get the lead without too much pressure if he so chooses. Last two works have been good for a reliable barn, so let’s beat another favorite shall we? 3-1-7
Race 5
6 – Shadow Boat – a disappointing debut at Churchill after a slow break and an even slower pace to try and run into afterwards, the second try comes with Manny Franco in the irons for a young trainer that has forged a nice relationship with Colts Neck Stables and the Godolphin folks. One of my favorite angles is the second start for a maiden that threw in a clunker on debut, and this certainly qualifies. I want to see how he runs with a clean break, and the price should be very fair to find out. 6-8-7
Race 6 – Wonder Again, $150k G3 – One Mile (Turf), 3yo Fillies
1 – Speaktomeofsumer – everything about this race screams “Sweet Melania wins wire to wire” considering the lack of pace and short field, but I’m just so intrigued by this filly’s closing kick in the listed stakes at Aqueduct last November. She came from out of the clouds that day, but in the win at Monmouth two-back she was much closer to the lead despite some early trouble and found her way through against a maiden bunch at short odds. I certainly respect the favorite, but I’m taking a little swing at a price with Joel getting the mount on a horse that might just have one more level to reach. 1-2-3
Race 7
3 – Single Verse – has hit the exacta in five of six career starts, with all but one coming on the dirt. The one turf try was a game second last summer at Saratoga, and he switches back to the lawn today after the claim from Rob Atras in the fall. The barn connects with 25% of their debut runners, and we should see an improvement off the last race, a five-wide slog in listed stakes company at Gulfstream. She has good tactical speed and gets the major rider upgrade to Santana this afternoon, so let’s get her near the front and she if she can find the winner’s circle at a price. 3-4-12
Race 8 – Acorn, $300k G1 – One Mile, 3yo Fillies
7 – Perfect Alibi – I’m big-game hunting here, as Baffert sends the ultra-impressive Gamine to the east coast for a big step-up from the maidens and optional claimers she whooped up on in California and Arkansas respectively. As good as she is and will likely be, and considering the murky details of the drug investigation from Oaklawn, I don’t like this spot for her with all the speed signed on and think she can be beat on the square. Perfect Alibi hasn’t made a start as a three year old but is already as battle-tested as some horses will ever be, winning a G1 and G2 last summer in one-turn affairs before battling VERY nice fields in longer G1’s in the fall. She has the perfect stalking style for this mile event today, keeps Irad in the irons and should get plenty of pace to run into. Hope this price stays right where it is at 5-1, love this one today. 7-4-1.
Race 9 – Jaipur, $250k G1 – 6F (Turf), 3yo & Up
5 – Stubbins – nice field here huh? Odd not seeing Disco Partner in this race with so many enjoyable editions featuring one of the all-time fun turf sprinters, but the field is certainly not lacking. There are some burners in here, most notably Pure Sensation and the ever-perplexing Hidden Scroll, so I’m going with the two sharpest stalkers in the bunch to complete the exacta and taking Doug O’Neill’s colt to get the money. He always fires and will very much appreciate the extra distance, and one of these times his consistent explosion in the lane is going to end in victory. Why not today? Texas Wedge also looks like a player in here and should get a very similar trip to my top selection, with Pure Sensation staying on for third the way I see it playing out. 5-3-4
Race 10 – The Belmont Stakes, $1mil G1 – 1 & 1/8th, 3yo
10 – Pneumatic – this is by no means a heavy-swing type of opinion, and I’m not going to pretend to come up with reasons why Tiz the Law isn’t the clear favorite in here, but I am very much interested in a lightly-raced Steve Asmussen colt ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr. going off at juicy odds in a one-turn stakes race. This one was very sharp in both victories to start the career before getting caught up in a speed duel last-out with another promising Derby hopeful (NY Traffic) en-route to a third place finish behind the now-injured Maxfield. He has seen three very salty groups and has earned all accolades to this point, and today will get the outside slot in a one-turn affair that should have two legitimate speedsters battling early. He’s improved in each start thus far and has shown tactical speed, so what if he finds one more level and the favorite doesn’t fire his best shot? Tiz the Law is a perfect candidate to single on multi-race tickets and I understand that most will be doing just that, but when it comes to playing this race and hammering both of the late pick-five sequences, I want this guy on all of them. 10-8-2-9
Race 11
7 – Monarchs Glen – in what is arguably the best betting race of the day, and in a field that I will definitely be spreading in for the late pick-five, I landed on the Danny Gargan six year old gelding coming off the sweet-spot layoff (61-180, 23% for the barn). He’s been very sharp since the move to this outfit in January, and gets back to a distance today where he has two wins in seven tries and has hit the board on two other occasions. He has good tactical speed and should comfortably sit off what appears to be two speed horses on his inside, hopefully giving him first run on the closers that are certainly looming. He found a little trouble in his last start, and was nailed at the wire two-back vs a very game field at Gulfstream. Pilot change from Irad to Lezcano today, and while it’s never good to lose the best rider in the colony, Lezcano is one heck of a consolation prize. Great race, should be very nice price. 7-9-3.
Race 12
2 – Crack Shot – feels like this one is getting loose on the lead, and I trust Saez to pilot that trip with a horse that has put up some nice efforts recently. I’m tossing the last race as he had trouble from the gate, and I think he’ll fire from the inside today for barn that does well with both sprinters (22%) and allowance races (20%). 3-1-8
Have a great Saturday everyone!
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 590: 135-114-95, -16.8% ($1,180 wagered, $981.80 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.9%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 58.3%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Final Total: 121: 26-23-20, -13.8% ROI ($242 wagered, $208.50 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)