Belmont 2020 (Spring Meet) – 33: 5-4-1, -42.3% ROI ($66 wagered, $38.10 returned)
Race 1
2 – Danegeld – he’s been close in all three tries, showing good early kick and staying power each attempt. The Bond barn connects with 23% off this layoff and he gets a major rider upgrade to Saez. Graduation day. 2-3-7
Race 2
7 – Business Cycle – chalk, but should catch a fast pace and has very nice tactical speed on a track that he’s won at twice in three tries. Franco keeps the mount for a barn that hits with 25% of runners coming off a win. 7-1-3
Race 3
1 – Jazzique – comes out of the G2 Ms. Grillo in the fall and looks better than this field. Not a ton of speed in this bunch, so Irad could be aggressive and get out front, not dissimilar to the trip he got from Newapaperofrecord on Saturday. Coming off the layoff but Chad Brown hits on 29% off this break and he can be singled here in my opinion. 1-4-7
Race 4
1 – Frosted Rose – tons of speed in this bunch going six panels on the lawn, and Manny Franco gets the mount for Michael Trombetta. He hasn’t been seen since February in Tampa, but the barn does well off these breaks and he’ll drop from optional claiming and listed stakes into a claiming bunch that looks relatively soft on paper. Should get a setup, looks like some speed signed on. 1-7-5
Race 5
2 – Walkoff – as far as claiming races go, this one came up pretty strong in my opinion. The one turn route will test the speed of a few in here, and I think the Brad Cox gelding will find a nice stalking trip over a surface that he’s won on in all three tries thus far. Saez gets the mount from Cancel and Davis, and though it looks on paper that he’s a deep closer, I think there’s more tactical speed and he might be a bit more involved early today. 2-4-3
Race 6
6 – Fridaybeers – a mild opinion here, but the horse did show nice speed before fading in the debut and switches to the turf today in the debut for the Rodrqguez barn. Perhaps he likes the grass and finds the early lead in a field that doesn’t have too much pace? Saez will be aggressive as always. 6-1-5
Race 7
9 – Mo Me Mo My – odd to see Doug O’Neill show up in the PP’s, as he’s only run three at Belmont this meet and this one has never been on the east coast before. Going with Saez again here, as he takes a mount that appears to have the perfect stalk and pounce style for this sprint, and he’s second off the break after finally breaking the maiden at Del Mar in September. His last try was a close fourth at big odds in an optional claimer at Santa Anita, so maybe he needed a race and the ship east will take him up another level. 9-5-3
Race 8 – The Bouwerie, $100k – 3yo Fillies, 7F
4 – Risky Mischief – blew them away and opened eyes in the debut at the spa last summer, then went right into the Grade 1 Spinaway and had a rough trip. Hasn’t been seen since, but looms large in a field that has mostly only seen state-bred opposition. The favorite on the rail also looks dangerous, but I’m leaning towards this filly because I think she might get first crack at the speed up front if pace gets hot early. Should be a fair price, and the barn excels with sprinters (22%). Layoff is a little scary, but I think she’ll be ready to roll. 4-1-6
Race 9
3 – Timeless Journey – these maiden turf races to close out NYRA cards seemingly produce wild results on the regular, and in a big field like this I just wanted to find some logic in picking a bit of a price. Clemente hits with 27% of his first-time starters, 21% of his first-turf runners, 22% when the debut is over a mile and 23% in MSW races. The works have been good and he’s at 10-1 on the ML. Let’s hope he has a live one today, and as always we’re spreading in the late pick 5 here. 3-11-9
Have a great Sunday everyone!