Rough start to the Belmont Fall meet last week but looking to get back on track today. 8 races on today’s twilight card, first race is a steeplechase at 3:00 PM and then the first flat race at about 3:32 PM. Be sure to follow me on twitter for any changes and updates throughout the day @cjfelts87. Good luck if you are playing along!
Through 13 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 118-30-23-22 (25% win, 64% ITM)
Race 1 Steeplechase
Multi Race: 3,4,8
Never really been one to play the jump races but I will mention two horses of interest. #4 Teodoro won by 33(!!) lengths at Saratoga and #8 Snap Decision won by 38(!!!) lengths also at the Spa 2 weeks prior. Will be interesting to watch them square off in the first steeplechase of the Belmont fall meet.
Race 2 MCL 62.5k 2yo, 7 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 3,5 B: 1
Top pick- #3 Mr. Phil
- $30k purchase has the ability times to be competitive as he drops down from the restricted maiden special level. Positive jockey switch from Tyler Gaff to Jose Ortiz for trainer James Ryerson who can get some 2 y.o. longshots home.
Exacta play(s)- #1 Blues City
- Last race may not be as good as it appears on paper since he was helped by a deep closing bias that day. Lezcano needs to send him to the lead to have a chance here, but if he comes from off the pace again will be better suited to play underneath.
Second choice- #5 Liveyourbeastlife
- First time starter drawing a lot of interest being 3rd choice on the morning line and in a weak field is certainly a contender. Trainer Jorge Abreu spouts good numbers with both first time starters and debut maiden claimers.
Race 3 ALW 77k n1x fillies and mares 3up, 1 1/16 miles
Multi Race- A: 1,5 B: 3,6
Top pick- #1 Off Topic
- Has been running against tougher with some good figures that are close to today’s par. Cutback in distance should help as she drops to her eligible condition.
Exacta play(s)- #3 Cottonwood Falls, #6 Foolish Living
Second choice- #5 Smooth With a Kick
- One of two Chad Brown entries uncoupled, 2-1 ML because of the CB factor but broke her maiden drawing away 2 back and last race you can forgive since it was in the slop. Does step up here but it’s not the toughest n1x in the world.
Race 4 CLM 35k n3L fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Multi Race- A: 1,8 B: 4
Top pick- #8 Golconda
- Even money favorite ships over from Monmouth for Jason Servis in what looks like an easy spot for her. Gets Irad Ortiz and we all know how Servis does with claimers, not to mention he’s 50% so far this meet.
Exacta play(s)- #4 Morissette
- Her race 3 back is enough I think to make her a contender and last time at the beaten 50k level was beaten only a length and ¾. At 8-1 ML could provide some nice value for the exacta.
Second choice- #1 Dancingwithdaffodls
- Has won over the Belmont turf course before with Jose and has the back class to be competitive. Dropping from the starter 40k level to 35k n3L isn’t a huge drop to me plus she cuts back to a sprint which she probably prefers over a route.
Race 5 MSW 62k state bred 3up, 1 mile turf
Multi Race- A: 2,5 B: 1,4,8
Top pick- #5 Klickitat
- 3 year old ridgling gets Lasix for the first time and cuts back to his preferred distance of a mile, fits the pace profile well enough as Javier Castellano hops aboard.
Exacta play(s)- #1 Jimmy Jazz, #4 Quiet Out East, #8 Wild Boar
Second choice- #2 Wayne’s Footsteps
- Think he fits pretty well here based on the pace scenario where he could be the controlling speed. Luis Saez does very well with early speed types, got nipped at the wire last time going 1 1/16 miles and now cuts back in distance which will benefit this 4 year old gelding as well.
Race 6 ALW 66k n1x state bred 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Multi Race- A: 4,8 B: 5,7
Top pick- #4 Crack Shot
- Lightly raced 3 year old fits the condition well and could be the controlling speed. 3/3 ITM on grass and Jose and trainer Jeremiah Englehart have a positive ROI when they team up at Belmont this year.
Exacta play(s)- #5 Jo’s Bold Cat, #7 Constant Knight
Second choice- #8 Bourbon Mission
- Has two well placed thirds at this level, needs a clean break but should be in the mix as they turn for home.
Race 7 Joseph A. Gimma Stakes 150k 2yo state bred fillies, 7 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4,6 B: 2,5
Top pick- #4 Irish Danzing
- The owners clearly saw potential in her when they purchased her for $120k at the OBS April sale (sire’s fee was only $3.5k). Geared down at the wire in her win on debut and now faces a bit of a tougher (but short) field here, think she’s due for another impressive performance.
Exacta play(s)- #2 Time Limit, #5 Naked Avenger
Second choice- #6 Fierce Lady
- Already a stakes winner and has never finished worse than second in three tries. Has the speed to be competitive but there is a question of if she can handle 7 furlongs as she stretches out.
Race 8 MSW 62k 2yo, 1 mile turf
Multi Race- A: 1,2 B: 4,10
Top pick- #2 Fame to Famous
- Weak field of maidens where you may as well hit the all button or pass but looks like he has the best closing speed of the bunch. Someone saw something they liked in his second career start as he went off 4-1 after being 51-1 in debut. Was close to par each of his last two races and looks to be right in it today.
Exacta play(s)- #4 Get Smokin, #10 Nexus
Second choice- #1 Theitalianamerican
- Part of the Gary Contessa entry, the other being #1A Justintimeforwine who should gun to the lead with Mike Luzzi aboard. Has been running against tougher and although I’m not thrilled about this being his turf debut, it really is a bad bunch.