It’s always sad to see the Saratoga meet come to an end but the Belmont fall meet is always intriguing to follow as we head towards the Breeders Cup. 8 races on today’s card with a first post of 3:00 P.M. Good luck if you’re playing along!
Through 13 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 110-30-22-21 (27% win, 66% ITM)
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 75k 2 yo, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 3,6 B: 1/1A
Top pick: #6 Ox Bridge
- I’ll take experience over any first time starter, ran a pretty quick ability time in his debut and was second best to Gozilla (placed in the Hopeful next out). Seems to have talent as he stretches out to a mile and Manny Franco stays on.
Exacta play(s): #2 Abrupt
- One of two Bill Mott entries in here uncoupled, appears to the best FTS in the group by process of elimination (not interested in the CB firster), at 12-1 ML he is a live shot to hit the board.
2nd choice: #3 Ajaweed
- Another colt with experience in this short field, by Curlin so distance is no issue but I don’t see any value at 7-2 ML.
Race 2 CLM 35k 3up Nw3L, 6 furlongs turf
Multi Race- A: 6,8 B: 7
Top Pick: #8 Another
- Indiana Grand invader has won before on the Belmont Turf Course and has won with Junior Alvarado before, he’s been running close to today’s par his past couple races and now comes in 2nd off the layoff with another chance to improve cutting back to a sprint. Given the probable pace scenario I would expect him to be flying late.
Exacta play(s): #7 Zap Daddy
- Jason Servis trained gelding has enough speed to be competitive and is also versatile enough to sit off what could be a very fast pace. 1st off the claim and drops in distance, although I think he will offer more value underneath.
2nd choice: #6 Corot
- Drops in class after running into the talented Pagliacci twice before. Dylan Davis stays on and I think the instructions will be to send him on the front end and try to keep him there. Opens at 9-2 ML so he’s certainly worth watching.
Race 3 MCL 25k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 1/1A,2 B: 3,5,7
Top pick: #1A Tannuzzo
- In a group of lowly maiden claimers this lightly raced 4 year old has early speed, I think he is better than he looks on paper and don’t let bug rider Benjamin Hernandez dissuade you. 3-1 ML should be telling you something after he she went off 8-1 last time.
Exacta play(s): #3 Two Graces, #5 Irish Banker, #7 Tarallucci
2nd Choice: #2 Appletini
- Another early speed drawing from the rail because of the entry, 8-1 ML is a nice price to take a gamble that she will like a fast track as she tries it for the first time.
Race 4 CLM 10k fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 5 B: 2,7
Top Pick: #5 Tiz R Bella
- Opens as the 6-5 ML favorite and could very well be under even money by the time the gates open, ran a really good race 2 back and now runs for a 10K tag first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez who has a positive ROI with his runners first off. Hoping she can track the pace just like he did 2 back and get up when asked.
Exacta play(s): #6 Zecha
- I think she’s intriguing at 12-1 ML, not a contender to win but drops into a bit of an easier spot after a grueling Saratoga meet for her (she raced four times!) and Joey Martinez is an up and coming bug rider who very well could have her in the mix late.
2nd choice: #2 Elizabeth Nicole
- #2 Elizabeth Nicole is 7-2 ML and I didn’t think she offered a ton of value but she has the speed to be a player in this race and if there’s anybody who could take down Tiz R Bella today, it’s her.
Race 5 CLM 30k fillies and mares 3up Nw2L, 1 mile turf
Multi Race- A: 5,8 B: 3,4
Top Pick: #8 Zandora
- In a race with not much closing speed she should be forwardly placed by Dylan Davis and when they turn for home I’m not sure anyone will catch her at the wire.
Exacta play(s): #3 Ascender, #4 Alley to Cavalry
2nd choice: #5 Moyne Spun
- Javier Castellano opted to rid her over Alley to Cavalry who he rode the last two times, after breaking his maiden in the maiden claiming ranks the n1x allowance level proved to be too much and he didn’t get the best trip that day either. Now gets some class relief as he drops in for a tag.
Race 6 AOC 40k n2x state bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 1/16 miles
Multi Race- A: 4,5 B: 1,2
Top Pick: #4 Might Be
- Finger Lakes shipper making her first start for Bruce Levine and comes off a second place finish there. Takes the blinkers off in hopes that she won’t go out too fast and gets Joel Rosario who can hopefully rate her off the pace.
Exacta play(s): #3 Beyond Discreet
- Another long priced bomb who has a good shot to outrun her odds and hit the board. Finished third at a similar level last out and now goes out first off the claim for Richard Schosberg, slight cutback in distance may help too since she is 5/9 ITM going this long.
2nd choice: #5 Ratajkowski
- Will be very dangerous if she can continue to improve as a lightly raced 5 year old mare. Got a chance to see her run at Saratoga and I didn’t think her win last out was all that impressive. Thinking that she might be headed towards a bounce, plus the fact that there is a lot of speed in this field kept me from making her my top pick at 6-5 ML.
Race 7 AOC 80k n1x fillies 3 yo, 1 1/16 miles turf
Multi Race- A: 2,6 B: 4,5
Top Pick: #2 Nay Lady Nay
- Improving 3 year old and Castellano gets the mount again, higher price of the two uncoupled Chad Brown horses and he has enough late speed to be in contention late.
Exacta play(s): #3 Chasing the Kitty
- Jose Ortiz should have her out on the lead, always a bit of a mystery how these Presque Isle Downs shippers will run on the NYRA circuit but she does get Jose Ortiz at 20-1 and could provide some value for the exacta.
2nd choice: #6 Fierce Scarlett
- Have to respect her given the quality of horses she has run against recently but she loses Irad and I’m just not going to play her at 4-5 ML.
Race 8 MSW 62k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Multi Race- A: 1,12 B: 5,6,7
Top pick: #1 Petalite
- Draws from the rail and fits the pace profile pretty well based off her last race, another instance where it could pay to pay attention to the odds- goes off 23-1 ML last out and is now 9-2 ML. Improving in form with every race and Johnny V stays aboard.
Exacta plays: #5 Sterling Beauty, #6 Marquet Legacy, #7 Sandra’s Mine
2nd Choice: #12 Two Cent Tootsie
- Longshot play at 12-1 ML, she’s also improving in form and her last race is better than it seems since she didn’t get the best trip. Now adds and extra 16th of a mile and Lezcano stays on, hoping she gets a good break drawing from the far outside since she has speed.