Belmont Park Racing Analysis — Wednesday, October 16, 2019, by Chris Felts

Back at it with a quick turnaround for some Wednesday Belmont action, the forecast is calling for rain starting in early/late afternoon so I will include off turf picks if they do take them off the grass (races 3,5,8). I would include all off track picks in your multis if you decide to play them. First post is at 1:15 PM, best of luck if you’re playing along and follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.

Through 18 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 151-36-33-29 (24% win, 65% ITM) 

Race 1 MCL 20k fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 1 B: 7

Top pick- #1 Fusi

  • Looks to be the fastest on paper in a race that really doesn’t have any pace. Expect her to be on the front end and it always helps to be on the lead with slow horses behind you.

Second choice- #7 Cairo Queen

  • 4-5 ML as she cuts back to sprinting, the class drop will help but I’m not playing her at under even money.
  • Underneath- #2 Sander’s Empire

Race 2 Str Alw 50k 3up, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 4,6 B: 2,3

Top pick- #6 Wicked Trick

  • First off the claim for Linda Rice stepping up to face tougher at 2-1 ML. Won his last race against 16k claimers drawing away by 6 lengths despite hitting the gate at the start. He’s been in good form since trying dirt and should have good tactical speed drawing from the outside and a good amount of pace to run into.

Second choice- #4 Shock Therapy

  • Closer type should benefit from the pace up front and will be running late to pick up the pieces. Rosario stays on who has been hot recently.

Underneath- #2 Coolboy, #3 Four Freedoms

Race 3 MCL 40k 3up, 1 1/16 miles inner turf

Multi Race- A: 2,4  B: 1,6

Top pick- #4 Championship Alley

  • Will get a nice price at 8-1 ML, will benefit from the stretch out and trainer Kelsey Danner has great numbers and positive ROI’s in every relevant category.

OFF TRACK:1/1A-2-4-8

  • An off track maiden race means chaos so play at your own risk but I’ll take a shot with the entry who both have good tomlinson numbers in the wet (both over 400) as an alternative to the 2 who would probably be favored should this race come off.

Second choice- #2 Sandy Lane Kitten 

Underneath- #1 Montatham, #6 Empirically

Race 4 CLM 14k N3L 3up, 6.5 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 5,6  B: 4

Top pick- #5 Autostrade 

  • 8-1 is a really nice overlay for me here, this 4 year old gelding has run his best races when sprinting and he will love the 6 furlongs today against softer company. Underrated for a barn that has been sneaky this meet. 

Second choice- #6 Desert Lights

  • Last race wasn’t so great so hoping he can get back to his prior form. Has been running competitively at the N3L level and Benji Hernandez gets the mount again today who has ridden him quite well in the past.

Underneath- #1 Take it to Scale, #4 Business Cycle

Race 5 MSW 62k 2yo, 1 mile widener turf

** This is one of those restricted maiden special races that NYRA started this summer 

Multi Race- A: 2,6  B: 7,8

Top pick- #6 Danzing Dunhill

  • Seems like the most logical contender after a very solid debut and keeps Manny Franco today. Have a feeling both entries (1/1A, 2/2B both coupled) will take a lot of money so you could get a decent price here.

OFF TRACK: 6-2-5-4

  • Will stick with Danzing Dunhill based off his 441 tomlinson number in the wet as well as having the right to improve second time out. Manny Franco staying aboard helps too.

Second choice- #2 Fame to Famous

Underneath- #7 Feeling Dangerous, #8 Imperial Might

Race 6 Str Alw 35k fillies and mares 3up, 7 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 3,5 B: 6,7

Top pick- #5 Honor Way

  • Has been running competitively lately and finds a nice race to run in today. Gets Irad and has some sharp works in prep for this spot.

Second choice- #3 Queen Nekia

  • Ships over from Delaware for a trainer who picks his spots very well; don’t be fooled by a new face in the jock colony today, jockey Jeremy Rose rode Afleet Alex and has some familiarity with this Belmont course. Save the Delaware Handicap he has finished ITM in all of his races since September of last year.

Underneath- #6 Breaking Bread, #7 Daria’s Angel

Race 7 Alw 77k n1x fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs

Multi Race- A: 1,3 B: 2 

Top pick- #1 Break Curfew

  • Ran a really good race in the Grade 2 Prioress at Saratoga last time out and now drops back into her eligible condition. Will be on the front end in a race loaded with speed but hoping she has enough class wise to hold off her foes down the stretch.

Second choice- #3 Alisio

  • Another early speed horse with Luis Saez who always does well with front runners. Hopes to get a nice trip and be in the running late.

Underneath- #2 Our Circle of Love, #4 Al Shamkhah

Race 8 CLM 30k N2L 3up, 1 1/16 miles widener turf

Multi Race- A: 1,7 B: 2,8

Top pick- #1 Dashing Dan

  • I expect Luis to put him on the front end and we all know how he does when it comes to him being on the lead on the turf. There’s a lot of pace in this race but not much late speed so he should hold them off coming down the stretch.

OFF TRACK: 8-16-10

  • The AE’s and MTO’s don’t look all that great and #8 Pipes has a win in the slop going this distance and that was to break his maiden. Playing underneath if this is on the grass but will be my top pick on an off track race where not many horses have good off track form.

Second choice- #7 Mr. Vincent

Underneath- #2 Uncle Curly, #8 Pipes, #10 Bad Guy, #11Tricky Magician

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