Bet/Returned
$68/$80.10
We are back before closing weekend at Belmont Park after last Thursday was cancelled. I personally need $3.90 to finish the meet even and obviously anything more will put me over positive. Let’s get hot for the last Thursday of the Belmont fall meet!
Race 1: 3-1-7
#3 MR. SHORTANDSIMPLE ran a solid race last time out here at Belmont but that was over the turf course. Don’t fear however because Rudy Rod is 2 for 3 at this level with horses going turf to dirt and 16% overall. Rudy Rod and Saez are 29% here at Belmont this meet and 23% overall as well and this one looks to be the best.
Race 2: 6-4-3
#6 DANGEROUS EDGE had a nice improvement off his first start at good odds and we are seeing the same thing here. We get a great rider upgrade in Irad today and we are going to get the most experienced horse in the field who earned the second best Beyer, at a 6/1 ML price with a top rider up. I’ll take a shot on that every day of the week.
Race 3: 6-3-2
#6 BAFFIN BAY won above this level here at Belmont in September with this rider up. There is going to be a speed duel up front between the two favorites and this gelding should be able to sit off a pace that could be hot and be able to get a nice stalking trip here which can get her to the winners circle.
Race 4: 3-1-4
#3 TRIAL AND ERROR has run twice at this distance and finished second both times. The last race out she earned an 83 Beyer which is well above the field and lost to a horse that won again next time out. Her speed early should be able to carry through to the wire here as this field looks to be softer than before.
Race 5: 1-9-2
#1 LONHTWIST should be sitting off the pace here and it looks like with so many front runners the pace up front will be hot. This will obviously set up for a closer and Jose is one of the best at this. This horse is 3 for 3 ITM at this distance as well. Interesting pace play here at 9/2 ML even though there have been others in this field that have finished ahead of him.
Race 6: 4-8-7
#4 IRISH VALOR is another pace play here as we will have a lot of horses with speed, some tactical and other just trying to get to the front. This guy is the only real closer in the field and we get Manny Franco who will be able to give him a solid trip. This guy is also 7 for 9 ITM with 4 wins at this distance.