We are back with another week here at beautiful Belmont Park!! Last week we had 2 winners on top out of 10 races. The final two races f the day our top picks got edged out by massive long shots which hurt. My bet/returned stats will be posted below after the first week of this meet. If you’d like to interact with me during the races today my twitter will be posted below as well. Let’s get hot today and try to get the meet started off on a very good note.
Twitter: @EdPiluso
Bet/Returned:
$20/$12.90
Race 1: 4-8-1
#4 INK SPLOTZ may seem like an interesting choice here but I’m looking specifically at the two races this gelding has run at this Maiden 40k level. In 2 races at this level we see his highest Beyer figure, and the highest in the field, and a 7 1/2 length win at Monmouth only to be disqualified after the fact. Today he is dropping to the level he has had much success at before, and looks to be the speed with not a whole lot of pace pressure. At 8/1 ML this is somebody to take a shot on to start the day. #8 EAGLES PALACE is the chalk here at 9/5 ML as he is taking a drop in class here coming back to the dirt and going two turns to one. Rosario sees that this horse gives him options and stays aboard here, I would include in multi-race wagers for sure.
Race 2: 8-3-5
#8 TAPIZEARANCE goes for the three peat today and at an 8/1 ML price this is very attainable here. Recently Beyer’s are among the best in the field and last race the gelding won from an outside post. The trainer is 18% in going route to sprints and has run 3rd both times over big sandy. Those were maiden races so I don’t take massive stock in them, however it does mean he is familiar with the track which I like. Let’s take another shot here as the pace will be hot and he can be off the speed. #3 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD is not only a great name but this gelding is in a race that sets up very well for a stalker/closer. He has closing speed and has hard riding Manny Franco aboard who can get him home quickly. This is his highest price to date but after running his two best races it’s justified.
Race 3: 2-1/1A-6
#2 FUTURE BOOK is an extremely timid selection here as this race seems extremely evenly matched. However to make this colts case, he ran well last time out at Aqueduct the day before the world shut down. Today he takes a slight step down in class and runs from the 2 post again. Today he gets the scorching Irad up for the first time and that’s a massive jockey upgrade. Irad and Mike Maker were 26% together last year which is very encouraging, and though the works aren’t flashy they’re consistent. #1/1A ENTRY are two different running styles which I like. The front runner gets Dylan Davis, and the stalker will get Joel which is fantastic. This race does set up well for a stalker with a decent amount of speed and Joel will give us a shot here. Hopefully Dylan will push the pace and we can get our top pick home with some stalking and Joel can come around as well. Again, this is a wide open race, go deep in multi race wagers.
Race 4: 2-6-8
#2 OWNITIFYOUWANTIT is coming in here to a race with almost nobody to push him on the front end. His last race he was nailed at the wire but was very game, today with a lot of stalkers and a 8/5 ML favorite who is a closer this guy at 5/1 ML is looking very appealing. Add in the fact I love hard riding Kendrick from close to or on the rail, this gelding is checking all my boxes here. Lastly, he ran 2nd at this distance before and a 3rd here over big sandy, very high on him here. #6 AJHAR is coming off of a very solid race last time out and Irad retains the mount today. We see a solid collection of works since the last race as well as a very solid Jockey/Trainer stat with him and Todd of 24% at Belmont last year.
Race 5: 3-5-2
#3 ALANDRA is going to be coming from the back of the field here in a race that has a good amount of pace and could see some hot fractions. She’s a Grade 1 placed horse as a 2 year old after being bumped at the start. That race was also at this distance, and Shug is 25% going sprint to routes. Rosario jumps back up here today which is promising and given the correct trip she could upset the favorite here and second choice #5 SPICE IS NICE. The second choice is the class of the field here and I can’t lie about that. However this doesn’t mean she cannot be beaten today and if she stays too close to a hot pace then she could very much get passed by the top pick. But these two look like the clear best in this field class wise.
Race 6: 6-8-5
#6 WINGS OF FURY has been ITM in 3 of 4 races on turf that she has run in her career and those are her best speed figures. Her last race she threw in a bit of a stinker but I think she will be primed and ready to go as the trainer has a 22% stat in this kind of layoff. She’s cutting back in distance which isn’t a bad thing and may even help her if she’s on the lead which is very possible. #8 MERLINS MUSE has been ITM in 4 of 8 races here over this Belmont turf. JohnnyV has had success on this mare which is promising and he has won on her at this distance. She did throw in a clunker last time over this turf at this distance which is worrying but she had some success at this level last time out.
Race 7: 3-6-4-1
#3 DANNY CALIFORNIA is getting a nice drop in class here and is getting a nice pace set up for his stalking trip. There is a good amount of speed to sit off of and we have an immaculate finisher in Joel up here. He won over big sandy before in a lower level claimer drawing off to win by 9 1/2 lengths, plus Joel and him have had some very solid races together before. I think he needed one after that slight layoff and coming in to a lower level second off the layoff makes him looks very appealing here. #6 RUN FOR BOSTON is 2 for 3 ITM here at Belmont and ironically enough, all those races are here over big sandy. Jose won on him the last time he was on him and he ran very well last time out which ism encouraging. He has closing speed which will help a lot here with speed up front and he’s run his best Beyer’s in his last 3 races. All at 12/1 Ml which is great to see. Please note, I like the #1 as a bomb for the under’s here as well.
Race 8: 7-9-10
Full disclosure, this race is wide open and absolutely stacked which makes me so excited. #7 MR. ALEC gets my nod here VERY slightly over the other top two. Reason being is that I only see one speed in here and he should get a perfect stalking trip. He has some of the highest Beyer’s in the field and is extremely consistent. A win and he is only 3 photo finishes away from being unbeaten, all of those he finished second. That one win is here over this Belmont turf at this distance they are going today. That race he sat a great stalking trip right off the pace and won after holding off some on comers. This is exactly what I’m expecting today. #9 MILITIAMAN has a win over this Belmont turf at this exact distance as well but he will be coming from further out. The slower pace up front will make it tougher for him to come from further out. The trainer has a stat of 5 wins, 2 seconds, and a third in 11 races with getting a new router on the turf. That’s a very solid stat to back him and at 12/1 ML he looks to be a great play for under’s and maybe even on top.
Race 9 Flat Out Stakes: 8-4-6
#8 YOU’RE TO BLAME ran on a sloppy track last time out so I drew a line through that. The last two races weren’t great but he gets blinkers today to give him focus and maybe a little more speed which will help him. If we look at his running line his best Beyer figures come in races that are over 1 1/4 miles. With his highest Beyer coming over Big Sandy in a race longer than this one. The distance isn’t the question, if he gets back to form here then at 12/1 ML he can really be a major player here. Full disclosure I really love #4 SIR WINSTON ever since he was my 2019 Belmont Stakes hero. Is that a contributing factor to why I picked him here? Possibly. However with that being said I genuinely do think he has a very solid chance to win here. He’s ahead of most of this field in terms of class which makes me confident he can overcome if there’s a slower pace up front.
Race 10: 12-3-5
A wide open finale here at beautiful Belmont but I landed on #12 WILD NORTH. This filly ran well in her lone turf start and yielded a nice Beyer figure considering. She broke from an outside post that day and gets a further one today which isn’t worrying for me. She should be able to get the trip here as there is a lot of speed that she should be able to sit right off of. That last race was promising and blinkers on with some maturity, let’s take a shot at 8/1 ML. #3 STUY TOWN BABY had a very solid race on turf back in November where she got caught at the wire. That race was at this level and it makes me optimistic that she can hand on to get a piece here at very least. We see consistent workouts and a jockey/trainer stat which wasn’t too bad last year at 21%.