Happy 4th of July to all readers!!! We begin the Stars and Stripes Racing Festival and the final weekend at Belmont Park. We all know what that means, Saratoga is ONE WEEK AWAY! Let’s send Belmont off with a bang and make some money by the pool celebrating America!
Race 1: 4-1-2
#4 PAGLIACCI is just the best horse in this field by a good amount. The second selection could upset, so I will not single the gelding here, how ever he is the one to beat. He has the best speed figures in the field and is up for sale for the first time today. A large step down in class here should see him victorious.
Race 2: 4-7-5
We have a very competitive and wide open contest here in the 2nd. #4 MALTHAEL looks like the one to top them all here however. The last two races this gelding ran were at the distance and that’s his two best speed figures. He has lost by less than a length and a half in both races and was caught just before the wire last time out. We get a rider upgrade today with Jose jumping up which makes me confident in the trip he will get and there’s a great collection of workouts coming off this layoff.
Race 3: 1-3-5
#1 PLANET TRAILBLAZER is the 1/2 ML favorite and rightfully so. This gelding is 5 for 6 in his last 6 dating back to November. 2 for 2 here over Big Sandy this year and both times Jose Lezcano was up. This one should be a rather easy winner today, the only other threat I see is the second choice here but I believe our top selection will prevail easily, could be a single if you don’t like the second choice.
Race 4: 1-7-5
This is an interesting race here, the favorite is the classiest animal in the field, however that large layoff and speed figures comparable to the rest of the field makes me nervous. Because of that #1 BIRD’S EYE VIEW is the top selection and with good reason. He’s getting a step down in class today, leading rider Lezcano up and a cut back in distance. His speed figures are comparable to the favorite and we won’t take the favorites low price off a layoff.
Race 5:
The last leg of the late pick 5 and the beginning leg of the early pick 5 is a race full of un-raced maidens. Big thanks to NYRA for setting that one up perfectly for revenue! Regardless we will push on and select the second longest shot on the board in #4 GREEN LIGHT GO at 8/1 ML. Over the course of June this colts workouts have improved tremendously and he just ran a bullet in a tune up for this. Junior gets the mount and based off the improving works I think he has a good shot here.
Race 6: 8-10-3
#8 BELLAMY KNOWS is an interesting play here at 8/1 ML. This filly is coming off what looks like an underwhelming 5th place finish at this exact same level. However, look at the running line, she was 2-3 wide at the half mile which went up in 45.28 seconds. That’s a fast fraction to run going wide like she was, she then drifts into the 7 path in the lane and is the widest runner of all by far and still gained lengths. We get Manny Franco, a great turf rider up, who will definitely give her a better trip today. She faces the same caliber of competition as last time and today with a better trip she can see the winners circle at a very good price. My value play of the day!
Race 7: 6-3-9
#6 MR. MASSENA runs his best speed figures and races over the green. His last two races here at Belmont he won and they were both closing after a stalking trip. Today he should be able to get that trip again and gets Irad up. He seems to get stronger as the race goes on and the extra 1/8th of a mile today should help him, tentative choice in a rather wide open affair.
Race 8 Manila Stakes: 6-5-8
#6 FOG OF WAR is a lightly raced colt but is already a Grade 1 winner in just his second ever start. Last race out as the heavy favorite he was checked hard 3 wide at the top of the lane after getting off to an awkward start. That’s a lot to go through in a race ans still win, so we can excuse the last race. This race we see 9/2 ML and this guy still has a lot of potential. Workouts since that race have been extremely consistent and we get Javier back up today.
Race 9: 8-6-2
Bombs away in the finale as always boys! #8 DONTCALLMEFRANCIS is coming off a stinker on the turf so let’s throw that race out. The race before that shows a lot of promise, he gained 6 1/4 lengths in the final furlong. This race gives him a whole extra furlong to run at a lower level than he ran before. At 12/1 ML and an improvement in her two races on the dirt there’s no reason to not take a shot here in the finale. There’s potential here.