Race 1: 4-5-1 – Looking for someone that can take them wire to wire, I think Desert Lights can be the one. Track played speed favoring all day yesterday. Danny California takes a drop in class and a cutback, should be considered the favorite. Purchasing Power was preferred by Rosario over the ML favorite, but it’s pace compromised.
Race 2: 1-4-10 – First time starter Menelik has works that indicate she is ready to fire a big shot in his debut for trainer Jonathan Thomas. The one post is somewhat troublesome. Manny Franco preferred him over ML fave Turned Aside, who has run twice and just by replicating those efforts he has an enormous chance to break through here. Trash Talker tries the turf after a solid debut on the dirt. Seems to be the controlling speed in here, lets see how he takes to the grass.
Race 3: 5-2-4 – An extremely bad group of fillies face off in this race, and nothing will surprise me in here. My recommendation is to hit the all button on the horizontal plays. I will go with Princess Mikayah as the top pick, as she is the one that has shown some improvement lately. Stella B is maybe a better turf runner, but against these fillies, she should do well, and Alvarado is a big jockey improvement. Little Nanny has been running in Finger Lakes, she has four wins, the most in this group.
Race 4: 8-2-1 – Ava Malone has only two races, and already in her most recent she showed a sizable improvement. Rosario takes over and should be close to the pace from the beginning. In Front ran well in her debut and improvement is expected from her, going second time out for Mc Gaughey. Coilean Bawn failed as the favorite last time out, now returns to a much shorter trip and will be present when all marbles count.
Race 5: 8-7-1 – Mental Model goes second time after the claim for trainer Linda Rice, who hits at a high percentage doing this. From that outside post, Alvarado will be looking for the lead at all costs and should be fitter being her second after a four month break. Other Things Equal had to drop to the 30K level to break his maiden, but did it with authority, leaving something in the tank. He will be attacking from the garden spot and Franco repeats. Jerome Avenue was claimed by Steve Asmussen, so improvement is expected from him. He will be following the footsteps of my top pick, lets see how he fares for his new barn.
Race 6: 5-6-4 – Dream Passage scratched from a Stakes race yesterday in favor of this allowance, in which she seems to be the controlling speed. Will be tough to catch. My Sister Nat has been sort of an underachiever, having participated in races of superior quality than this one. Maybe Johnny V will be what she needs to wake up here in the states. Alasaayil has performed nicely in stakes races recently, now drops a tad and with a clean trip, she definitely has a chance to score.
Race 7: 8-7-10 – The hardest race to handicap in this card. Local Hero isn’t a winning machine at all, but he has been running against much tougher horses. The 15-1 morning line is in my opinion, way too high, and Rosario takes over the reins, in a race in which he should have pace to close. Tusk has been running in Delaware and Monmouth, so the fact he shows up here is a good sign. Carmouche will send him right to the lead, let’s see how he can withstand pressure. Siding Spring is extremely consistent, unfortunately he drew the outside post, which is a disadvantage. But if he can make the curves without losing too much ground, he will be right there at the end.
Race 8: 6-5-1 – Osidy is a filly that has been the talk of the town over the last two or three months. She has tried to get into races with no luck. Finally she gets a race and her works are phenomenal for this American Pharoah daughter. Barista Vixen goes first time out for Bill Mott, who is better 2nd time out, but her work tab indicate that she should give a good account of herself today. Princess Pao was hammered at 35X her stud’s fee, and has good works in preparation for this, her vow run.
Race 9: 1-9-3 – Simply Breathless is the only one of these fillies that has been competing versus grade quality fillies. She has a definite class edge and Rosario should be a good jockey for her style of running. The rail post is another factor in her favor. Xenobia was facing better than these in Europe, and this is her third race after a ten month break. Johnny Velázquez takes the call and we should expect a better showing from her. Sweet Bye and Bye is the up and comer, climbing the ladder gradually, and with Jose Ortiz, we will see her at or near the front. With a little more improvement, she can pull the upset.
Race 10: 11-4-2 – Tatterazzi and Corey Scores both will be dropping to maiden claimers for the first time in their careers. I prefer Tatterazzi for two reasons: she has run fewer times than Cory Scores, so she has more upside, and the fact that she is taking a cutback in distance. Saez stays for the finale. Cory Scores also has been favorite to break her maiden four times, with no wins to show for. Rousey debuted three weeks ago and now trainer Abreu outs blinkers on her and drops her in class. She doesn’t need to improve a lot to win in such a low quality group.