We have a peculiar 10 race card today. Many short fields and suspect track conditions. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends, which is likely today.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 4,6,7 / 4 / 3,4,6 / 1 / 3 = $4.50
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 2,3,4,5,6,7 / 4 / 3,4,6 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,3 = $72
Race 1- 6-4-7
There is a reason that this is a bottom level Maiden claimer. These horses leave a lot to be desired as evident by only one horse has ever been in the lead in their career. With no speed on paper I will side with #6 Mr. Wonderful, who I expect to be on the lead, with ultra aggressive jockey, Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. The race 2 back wasn’t terrible and George Weaver is hitting at a 45% clip when removing the hood. #4 Everything Pazible is a horse I wanted to put on top but it is hard to get past his running style. This colt likes to drop back to last and make one big sweeping move. That will be difficult to do in this spot with no early speed on paper. If he breaks cleanly and is a little more forwardly place, he is your horse to beat. #7 Mission Statement is an interesting shipper for Jonathan Thomas. He hits at a 30% clip when taking horses from the MSW company to the MCL ranks. However, that is a little misleading since he is a NY bred and the purse here is actually higher than what he was running for down south. Still must respect an outfit who win together 29% of the time and has done the least wrong out of this group.
Race 2- (OFF TURF) – 4-7-6
Uncle Sigh will be a strong single and likely to be at short odds on this off the turf event.
Race 3- 6-3-4
#1- Walkoff – It is hard to endorse this horse despite the fact he is likely to take a lot of action due to the connections. Those that have followed me know that I almost never bet Pletcher 3yo first time starters. They generally under perform. Here is another example. Buyer beware.
#2- Bad Sueno- Son of Bodemeister has been working steadily for a trainer that is not known for having them ready first time out. He is bred to go much longer so this would appear to be a prep race for something further down the line. Pass
#3- Ninja Dust- If you get anything close to the 8-1 ML price, I would jump on it. Look at the company he has run with to start his career. The cutback and the ultimate equipment change (sorry buddy) should help. He may not win but he is well worth the 8-1 price.
#4- Ari’s Naughty Luca- He is your likely favorite after facing Haikai and American Mandate in his debut. In that race he had a troubled start and faded after taking no action at the windows. He is another that can win but will be overbet
#5- Indigestion- Low percentage outfit despite the decent works in the AM. The breeding does not suggest a win early pedigree.
#6- Suremoney- This is a stab in the dark but I landed on this horse who should find himself on or close to the lead early on. He is the lone 4yo in a race which is an angle I like this time of year. Nice spread race to try to catch a price with suspect favorites. Also watch the board for clues.
Race 4- 1-2-4
No big surprise here. Chad Brown on turf with an Ortiz. Yadda Yadda Yadda.
All Go might get loose on the lead but the turf course yesterday played to closers.
Race 5- 3-1-2
#3 Simona will be my top pick despite the jockey that gives me headaches. This 4yo filly has run the fastest races and Rudy does a great job 2nd off the bump. If the jockey doesn’t do anything crazy, he is your likely winner.
#1- Dancingwthdaffolds- He is an interesting horse on the cutback. His best races seem to be at this 6F distance and he will definitely be upgraded if the track comes up less than fast. Very interesting at a price.
#2- Viradia- Her speed figures fit here and should get a favorable setup with a great amount of speed signed on here. Not likely to win but can catch a piece.
#7- Midnitesalright- Here is your wildcard for Jason Servis. This horse has always quit until last time out where she drew off to win easy. She is a fast one and if the track is playing kind to speed early, you have to take note and adjust.
Race 6- 3-4-5-9
#3- Broken Border- This will be one of my best plays of the day if the track is playing fair. This horse loves this track and his form is a bit dirtied up having run on 4 different tracks in his last 4 tries. Some may be concerned with the long layoffs but if you look at his past patterns, this horse excels 1st off the long layoff. There might be concern that as a 7 year old her best days are behind her but I think she wakes up in this spot for Jason Servis.
#4- Lovely LaLa- From the looks of it, the world will be on this horse after exiting a tough NY bred stakes race. She is two for three over this track and with any improvement, she wins easily. She appears to be the lone speed in the race and a likely winner on the turf (yawn) for Chad Brown.
#5- Bareeqa- Gargan + Carmouche + Midwest Thoroughbreds. Expect an improvement.
#9- Tudox Lifting Off- Very interesting horse for Geroge Weaver off the jail move. Watch the board to see if he is live.
Race 7- 7-8-5
Wow this race looks loaded with a bunch of good 3 year olds. I hate that I Browned/Pletchered out in this race but I really think they are holding the good hands here. Ultimately the board will tell me who is live but here are a few notes about my top picks:
#7- Fullness of Time- He ran into two monsters (at least at the time) in Mucho and Aurilius Maximus. He ran second to both and Chad Brown felt good enough about this horse that he nominated him for the TC races. It might be a stretch but it would not shock me to see this one break out today and then try his hand on Belmont Stakes day.
#8- Looking at Roses- He has been a star in the AM and if he breaks cleanly he might be the star of this race.
#5- Presto- He is another that was nominated for the TC races and was supposed to be one of Pletcher’s go-to horses. First time out he had everything go wrong (which was common around this time for Pletcher’s 1sters). Although Pletcher does not do well with the hood move, he gets the help and it might wake him up.
My advice is to watch the board and see who is live and spread in your multis.
Race 8 – 8-7-1
#8- Miss Hot Stones- I am a sucker for a Bustin Stones and this one has been ultra consistent. She should sit off the cheap speed and sit the right trip if the track is playing fair. She is going 3rd off the long layoff and should improve off her last effort, which if repeated may still be good enough to win here.
#7- She’s Trouble- Linda Rice does a great job with 2nd off the long layoff and is another projected to try to close into the likely fast pace. She does seem to find trouble coming out of the gate, however if she breaks clean, she might be the one to beat.
#1- Forever Daisy- I am a sucker for my jail moves, despite this not being one of the greatest ones. Franco at 10-1 is too good to pass up and if the track is the same as yesterday, should be able to fly down the rail and catch a piece at a big price.
Race 9- 6-7-4
#6- Fire Key- I am married to this horse after winning me a boatload last October. This horse will appreciate getting back to sprinting on this track, which is what she does best. She loves give in the turf course which she will get here and is a pretty strong choice to win in this spot if ready.
#7- Fear No Evil- He has been beaten by Goldwood and Fire Key already but I think this might set up nicely for Jersey Joe Bravo. He is sitting perfectly on the outside where is where I like my horses on turf sprints. He should get some give in the turf course which is something that he appears to like. He will have to run his best race of his career but there is a lot to like.
#4- Mrs. Ramona G. – She is not as fast as my top two picks but she loves this course and will be more forwardly placed than my top two picks. She could get first jump on them and try to steal the race.
Race 10 (Off turf) – 4-16-13