Race 1
2 – Cash Offer – She’s been knocking heads in state-bred allowance races all summer and doing so very impressively (3: 1-2-0), and in fact she’s been terrific in all six starts for Mark Henning. Saez keeps the mount today in a salty field, but she should definitely be on the lead from the bell and I like her chances to wire them here.
2-4-1
Race 2
7 – First Deputy – the first two starts came on the lawn at the spa and he handled himself fairly well despite a bump in the debut and a very wide trip in the return voyage. Linda Rice hits with 17% of her turf-to-dirt runners and the 9/9 work was nice and sharp. $200k purchase and he keeps Jose in the irons. 7-1-4
Race 3
5 – Digital Footprint – got his first career win on the Belmont turf back in June then took two more cracks at routes over the summer, ultimately coming up just short. He’ll get a cut-back today for the Asmussen barn, a 20% angle if you care about such trends; can’t ignore the jockey switch as Irad hops back aboard for the first time since the aforementioned maiden victory. 5-1-8
Race 4 – The Vosburgh, G1 – $300k
5 – Promises Fulfilled – my long, exhilarating, heartbreaking odyssey wagering on this horse comes to another fork in the road this afternoon, and I’m reluctantly choosing his path again. I absolutely loved him on Travers Day and he never had a chance once he missed the break and Mitole had the burners on anyway… similarly I loved Mitole on Dandy Day when Imperial Hint freaked on a biased-track… all of this leads me to want to beat Imperial Hint at a very short price and I think Promises is the one to do it. He has a win at Belmont and two wins at today’s distance, and I like him to get the nice stalking spot (if not the outright lead) as the only horse to his outside wants to run late. For me this entire wager is based off the favorite bouncing, and my top pick reverting to previous form. 5-6-4
Race 5
1 – Laughable – I know it’s tough to try and beat an American Pharoah first-timer (especially when it’s Chad Brown on the lawn), but I like the inside draw and the penchant for early speed on this $300k Distorted Humor filly. Pletcher tried her at today’s distance in the debut upstate and she was sent right o the lead by Gaffalione before fading on the far turn. He connects with 27% of his maiden-second-timers and I think it’s encouraging that he’s sending her right back out for a route of ground. Front-running win today?? 1-4-7
Race 6
10 – Toledo – not much to say on this race as all but one of the ten runners are making their career debut. When in doubt I’ll settle for the Chad Brown colt on the outside, as I usually prefer that trip more than being jammed near the rail. Irad gets the mount for a barn that needs no statistical bolstering. 10-
Race 7
5 – Stonefactor – ran very nicely in Saratoga back in early August going 5 ½ panels on the grass, then followed it up with a rocky start in the slop here at Belmont a few weeks ago. I’m giving her a pass on the most recent try as she drew inside and was bumped pretty hard at the start of the race and never got comfortable even if she was up near the lead. The race doesn’t look like it has much pace on paper, and with Carmouche back aboard I like our chances to get an aggressive ride at a nice price. 5-1-3
Race 8 – The Beldame, G2 – $300k
1 – Midnight Bisou – she should win for fun in here, right? The early scratch of Vexatious only helps the matter in my opinion, as nobody but Wow Cat has figures even close to the sensational Steve Asmussen filly. She’s two for two at Belmont and has never missed the trifecta at today’s 1 & 1/8th distance and I think she gallops. 1-6-2
Race 9 – The Pilgrim, G3 – $200k
1 – Tuggle – well, his first career turf start was an absolute disaster huh? In one of the more curious rides of the 2019 Saratoga meet, Jose Ortiz kept the front-running Englehart colt under a solid hold and never really advanced him during the race before finishing a non-threatening sixth. Jose Lezcano gets the mount today, draws inside and will certainly be more aggressive in a race that doesn’t have much speed. I like him to wire them at a nice price.
1-7-2
Race 10 – The Jockey Club Gold Cup, G1 – $750k
3 – Vino Rosso – he’s appeared four times in his four year old season and has locked horns with quite the cast of runners in the process. His last three tries were all Grade 1 company, the most recent of which a game third in the Whitney despite a very wide trip the whole way. This is a short field with a front-running favorite in Preservationist, and I think he gets a nice stalking trip behind the Jimmy Jerkens runner and challenges him in the lane. Pletcher is removing the blinkers here, the works have been sharp and the layoff hits him right between the eyes. With the three year olds taking a lot of money, we could get a very generous price on a hard-knocking colt. 3-2-4.
Race 11
10 – Chantry Flats – the outside post is a concern but his early speed should carry him towards the front in time for the far-turn and I like his chances in this spot. His last four races have been fantastic for this level, and even with Michelle Nevin hitting at a modest 13% off the 61-180 day layoff, the works have been very sharp and the colt seems to enjoy the Belmont lawn. 10-8-7
2019 Belmont (fall)
Week 1 (9/7) – 11: 1-1-2, -74.5% ($22 wagered, $5.60 returned)
Week 2 (9/21) – 11: 1-1-3, -86.4% ($22 wagered, $3.00 returned)
Total: 22: 2-2-5, -80.5% ($44 wagered, $5.60 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 415: 98-78-70, -17.8% ($830 wagered, $682.40 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.6%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.3%