Race 2
3 – Shandian – he’s only had one crack at a fast dirt surface in his young career and asserted himself well finishing second back in July upstate. He’s been on the turf for the last three but the Contessa barn opts for the surface change today against a pretty soft bunch. His early speed should be a weapon and it’s worth noting that the very-aggressive Kendrick Carmouche gets the mount today. Looking for him to be involved from the bell, let’s see if he can finally break through. 3-4-7
Race 3
7 – Kreesie – comes out of listed stakes company for David Donk and sports some nice speed figures in the process. This (slight) drop in class could prove to be just the recipe for success, as she has a nice stalking style and always finds herself near the wire despite having not won in almost a year. Her best chance in here is to hope the 4 and 6 get hot up front to set her up for a one-run finish. 7-6-4
Race 4
3 – Harlem Heights – the Bernardini filly makes her second career start today for Shug after a somewhat troubled debut at 6.5 furlongs here at Belmont a few weeks back. He’s stretching her out on the return trip and adds lasix for the first time, both angles historically proving profitable for the veteran trainer. I like that he’s moving forward with her at the longer distance, and Lezcano stays aboard in hopes of continuing his recent turf success. 3-6-1
Race 5 – Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational Stakes, $150k
7 – Disco Partner – I can’t quit this horse. He’s finished in the trifecta in 25 of his 32 career races and always runs hard for trainer Christophe Clemente, and I’ve always enjoyed watching the now-seven year old lay it down in these turf sprints. This isn’t all about nostalgia though…. he got absolutely no pace to close into last out going 5.5 panels at the spa, and today’s favorite (#5) got a nice wire to wire win as a result. I don’t believe that will be the case today with all the early speed signed on, and I think it allows Junior Alvarado to park this horse off the pace and make that one late run he’s known for. The distance hits him right between the eyes as well, as he’s an ultra-impressive 11: 6-3-1 going six furlongs. 7-5-4
Race 6 – Matron Stakes, $150k – Grade 3
5 – Karak – taking a little swing against the even-money favorite (#1) in here with the Wesley Ward filly fresh-off an easy victory in the Tyro stakes at the Jersey Shore. The works at Keenland have been sharp and steady and she returns to the site of her maiden victory today… even gets the rider back from that debut voyage in Irad Ortiz. 5-1-2
Race 7
5 – Cowtown – Todd Pletcher debuted this one at 1 & 1/8th miles at the spa back in August, a very confident move that didn’t pan out well in a non-threatening 5th place result. The return try will come at a mile, and the barn connects on 26% of their maiden second-timers. Johnny V gets the mount today, and the way Pletcher horses have been firing as of late I think the worktab on this one indicates a nice positive move heading into start #2. 8-1 morning line is very attractive as well. 5-9-11
Race 8 – Hill Prince Stakes, $400k – Grade 2
2 – A Thread of Blue – not going to overthink this one, and as much as it’s a wide-open betting race I can’t get away from this guy being the only speed in the field. He is definitely facing some tougher customers than he did in his last two, but doesn’t the pace scenario set him up perfectly? The wire to wire win at Saratoga came at 1 & 3/16th so this should be no problem, and the last try at 1 & ½ was likely asking too much. Look for Saez to send from the bell and not look back. 2-6-5
Race 9 – Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, $500k – Grade 1
1 – Zulu Alpha – the last three efforts have been in graded stakes company at three different tracks and he’s handled himself very professionally in all three. He lost the United Nations at Monmouth by a neck in a great stretch run, then came back to run a solid 5th in the Bowling Green despite finding little racing room. Mike Maker brought him back again at Kentucky Downs last month and he won impressively with a stalk and pounce trip. The two works since have been sharp and I think he’s primed to take home his first Grade 1 today. The distance suits him well as he’s 6: 3-1-1 going 1 & ½ miles, and the inside draw should help if he wants to save ground into the turn. 1-7-3
Race 10 – Champagne Stakes, $500k – Grade 1
5 – Gozilla – the debut at the spa was very impressive when he drew away at 3/5 over a fast track going six panels, but the second start in the Grade 1 Hopeful found him not firing over the sloppy surface. Steve Asmussen brings him back into Grade 1 company again here and will face some tough foes in Green Light Go and Tiz the Law, but I like the price considering he might just not like wet surfaces and gets back to the preferred fast track. Great race indeed. 5-7-3
Race 11
4 – U S Army Corps – taking a swing with the Shug second-timer here after an adventurous debut at the Spa back in August. Johnny V in the irons for the first time here, and the barn does reasonably well with maiden second-timers. The 60 Beyer figure in the debut is solid considering the trip, and drawing towards the inside could help if the goal is to try and flash more speed at a nice price today. 4-1-3
2019 Belmont (fall)
Week 1 (9/7) – 11: 1-1-2, -74.5% ($22 wagered, $5.60 returned)
Week 2 (9/21) – 11: 1-1-3, -86.4% ($22 wagered, $3.00 returned)
Week 3 (9/28) – 11: 2-5-2, -4.1% ($22 wagered, $21.10 returned)
Total: 33: 4-7-7, -55% ($66 wagered, $29.70 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 426: 100-83-72, -17.4% ($852 wagered, $703.50 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.5%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.9%