Race 1
8 – Waynes Footsteps – the Brad Cox gelding finally broke through in the maiden ranks last month over this very turf course, and he did so with his usual front-running style. I think while it’s certainly a jump up in class, he does have the speed to potentially sit a nice trip up front and Saez stays aboard for the fourth consecutive time for this barn. 8-3-5
Race 2
3 – Critical Value – she ran two bang-up races at the spa over the summer, grabbing the maiden win on 8/29 going six panels on the fast Saratoga main. She’ll stretch-out a bit for Jeremiah Englehart today, a 25% angle over his last 141 tries doing so. Junior Alvarado should be hustling from the bell, but will have to watch a potential speed-duel with the favorite to his inside. Works have been sharp and I like the price if in fact the 2 gets hammered at the windows. 3-2-1
Race 3
3 – Silver Bank – I’m taking a swing with the first-timer for Michael Stidham, who’s had this filly working consistently at Monmouth since late-May. He connects with 23% of his first-time runners and Joel Rosario gets the mount, so why not take 5-1 (ish) in what appears to be an open affair. 3-10-1
Race 4
6 – Gucci Factor – this horse just shows up and runs – 15 career starts, seven wins and has only missed the trifecta five times, and he absolutely loves the Belmont turf (four wins in five tries at today’s distance). I love him in this spot for Christophe Clement as the pace should get just quick enough for the late-run setup. He’s versatile enough to sit just off or come rolling from the clouds, and I love that advantage in an evenly-matched field such as this.
6-8-4
Race 5
2 – Dynamax Prime – a stone-cold closer in a short field with tons of speed, I like the Rob Atras gelding to get the perfect set-up and pounce on the two big favorites in here. The three outside horses all want the lead, and while my top choice is by no means the best horse in here, we’re going to get a huge price on a potential pace meltdown. 2-4-3
Race 6
4 – Eye Luv Lulu – sure, the last two starts haven’t been too impressive… sure, this is a salty bunch with more than a few horses in better form at the moment… but this is EXACTLY when you want to bet the Jason Servis lone-speed type at a price with Irad in the irons, right? His front-running style should get him into a very favorable spot, and I wouldn’t put anything past this barn sprinting on the dirt. 4-3-2.
Race 7
7 – Satisfy – unlike the previous race on the card, this sprint looks to have some quick fractions on the horizon with more than a few speedsters signed on. Though the Bill Mott mare has gone wire to wire before, there is also a very clear ability to stalk and pounce, which should be very advantageous in this spot. The works are sharp and the horse hasn’t missed the exacta in her five Belmont starts. 7-9-1
Race 8
4 – Captain Bombastic – won on debut for Jeremiah Englehart, and though not quite as impressively as some of his rivals it was only his first start and the barn has been very sharp with the development of their two year old runners. I love that he showed some patience on debut, and that stalking ability could prove to be very useful with the speed in here going the tough one-turn Belmont mile. Look for a nice price too. 4-5-2
Race 9
5 – Dream Passage – things have gone very well since the decision to start going longer, and the recent form has been very sharp in similar company to what she’ll see today. She’s been in the trifecta in eight of her 11 career starts over the Belmont sod, and Brad Cox connects with 28% of runners coming off a victory. Jose Ortiz will likely have her on the engine, and I love her chances to walk them down the backstretch here. Should get a fair price if the Chad Brown / Javier runner (#4) takes the expected money it should. 5-4-3
Race 10
6 – Out of Orbit – she clearly appreciated going longer last-out at the spa, and won impressively on he lead. Distance is not a concern for her, and the layoff should help in a field that’s very comparable to what she faced upstate before the well-deserved break. Does Saez send her to the front here? Or can he rate a little and see if the pace unfolds quickly in front of him? Either way I love her chances at a price. 6-9-1
Race 11
Although the finale seemingly always comes up with come ridiculous result…. this one looks very chalky. I’ll go 1-10-8, spread where I can throughout the rest of the sequence and try to bring this late pick 5 home.
2019 Belmont (fall)
Week 1 (9/7) – 11: 1-1-2, -74.5% ($22 wagered, $5.60 returned)
Week 2 (9/21) – 11: 1-1-3, -86.4% ($22 wagered, $3.00 returned)
Week 3 (9/28) – 11: 2-5-2, -4.1% ($22 wagered, $21.10 returned)
Week 4 (10/5) – 11: 0-3-1, -100% ($22 wagered, zero returned)
Total: 44: 4-10-8, -66.3% ($88 wagered, $29.70 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 437: 100-86-73, -19.5% ($874 wagered, $703.50 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.9%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.3%