Welcome back to beautiful Belmont Park! Loaded card today, and I have some prices on deck. Good luck to all those playing along!
Race 1
5 – Mohican – first race out of the blocks for me in a few months and I’m taking a swing with the 15-1 gelding going out for the Randi Persaud barn after the claim from Rudy. This feels like an overlay at the price considering he’s won vs. similar and has knocked around in the allowance ranks a bit as well. He owns a win at Belmont going seven panels back in the fall, and with the speed signed on in here he should sit a nice stalking trip if the young Cardenas so chooses. I also like the cutback from two-turns into a sprint, a 19% angle for this outfit. 5-4-6.
Race 2
11 – My Éclair – Maybe it’s because Tampa has been alive and well all spring, or maybe it’s seeing Carmouche back in the PP’s again… but more than likely it’s the ever-consistent Michael Stidham barn taking that 20% form up north with a nice speed horse and a front-running rider in a race that might just let him get loose on the lead. There is no fooling around with this one, the lead will be his if he breaks clean; I like that he almost got them up front going a mile two-back, and I believe he certainly has the staying power against these today at six panels.
11-4-12
Race 3
3 – Break Beat – the $160k Blame colt from the 2018 Keenland fall sale makes his debut today for the Gargan barn, an outfit that has connected at a 34% clip in 2020 with 86 starters. This is actually another Carmouche play for me, as you always prefer first-timers to get out quick and avoid trouble, and they have the right rider to do just that. I understand the Shug runner looks very sharp coming back off the Gulfstream debut, but this one at a nice price is very attractive considering the connections. 3-5-7
Race 4
11 – Scotty Brown – If we get anything close to 5-1 this would be a very aggressive wager for me, as I see him as the lone speed in a shaky maiden group. The PP’s are deceiving, as the dirt tries were pretty brutal but they occurred 18 months ago. He hasn’t been seen in over a year, but John Terranova does well off the big layoffs and Lezcano takes the mount. Not a ton of speed in here, so there’s wire to wire potential for this one and I’m in.
11-7-5
Race 5
10 – Kosciuszko – this is a very salty bunch with some speed on the inside of the draw, and on the running lines alone he looks a notch below from a few of these… but he caught a beautiful stalking trip last time out and should get a similar setup today with the big rider upgrade to Rosario. He hasn’t missed the triple in all three tries at Belmont, likes the distance and the barn is sharp off this break. Price will be right on this one. 10-6-5
Race 6 – Fort Marcy – G2, 1 & 1/8th (turf)
6 – Synchrony – forget the two Fairgrounds tries, never had a shot in those pace setups and got less than ideal rides in both. This distance hits him right between the eyes and he gets a huge rider upgrade to Johnny V. As we’ve noted earlier, total respect for Stidham on the grass and in a good field I think he gets it done as a possible overlay with the numbers he sports. 6-5-3
Race 7 – The Westchester – G3, 1 & 1/16th
1 – Endorsed – I love the setup in here for the Bill Mott-trained colt. He’s two for two at the distance and should get a nice ground-saving trip on the rail for Joel with a lot of speed signed on. We can toss the two starts at the classic distance as he’s clearly not built to go much longer than nine panels, but that’s not the case today and he’s trending upward at a nice price. 1-9-7
Race 8 – The Intercontinental – G3, 7F (turf)
6 – Jakarta – has been impressive in winning her last two tries, the second of which came off the turf at Gulfstream just a few weeks back. This will only be her second career start on the lawn, and she was sharp on the lead winning over five panels in south Florida back in March. It’s possible she finds herself loose on the lead today if Newspaperofrecord doesn’t fire off the long layoff, and Carmouche will have her on the engine early I imagine. Feels like something has clicked since the change to the Maker barn, and the price will be very generous. 6-12-9
Race 9 – The Carter Handicap – G1, 7F
11 – Vekoma – this one is a straightforward opinion in race that came up very tough on paper… I LOVE his 2020 debut at Gulfstream back in March, and considering we hadn’t seen him since the Derby it was eye-opening how be buried them over the same seven furlong distance he’ll try today. Just has the look of a horse with a ceiling not yet reached, and George Weaver is a 25% winner who spots his horses very keenly. The scratch of Performer opens this up a bit from a pace scenario, and I think Vekoma will benefit if he can clear from the outside draw and settle in a nice stalking spot before the turn. 11-1-5
Race 10
12 – Financialstability – at the point of the day where most of us are very concerned about our finances, here comes Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz to get us started on the get-out double with a horse aptly named Financialstability. We’re probably not getting 5-1, but this is a horse that has been battling in allowance company since the fall and is due for a win to be honest. The last two have come over sloppy tracks, so if we go back to the 10/19 sprint over six panels I think we see what he’s capable of. Works are good, lay-off feels right. Watch the tote and hammer, because Jose has been cold and that actually could work in our favor this afternoon. 12-9-4
Race 11
7 – Voodoo Zip – I’m going with the single in the late pick 5, a risky proposition in these maiden finales at NYRA but this Danny Gargan colt has been ultra-impressive in defeat through the first four tries of his career, and should find the winners circle today with Lezcano in the irons. He ships up from Gulfstream where he caught bad luck three races in a row, and today he gets his the breakthrough with a front-running trip. 7-6-3
Have a great Saturday everyone!
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 569: 131-111-94, -16.8% ($1,138 wagered, $946.50 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.0%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.1%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Final Total: 121: 26-23-20, -13.8% ROI ($242 wagered, $208.50 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)