Race 1
5 – Bid You Adieu – could be the controlling speed in her second start off the long layoff, and trainer Merktan Kantarmaci is a sneaky 20% winner in 2019. The June 19th try appears to be a tune-up race, and I would expect a little more punch in the opener today. Malibu Mischief (2) will finally get a fast track again today (3: 1-0-2) and has some early zip, and I have to respect Eight Oaks (1) but the year off doesn’t bode well when you see Jorge Abreu’s record in such spots. 5-2-1
Race 2
2 – Awesome Adversary – fourteen career starts with no victories but he’s been very keen since March with five straight ITM finishes and I think he’ll finally get his setup today. The 6 and 7 are very likely to fire from the bell, and I like my top pick to sit off that and use the inside spot to save ground for the drive. Southern Brigade (9) and Golconda (10) should sit similar stalking trips, so make sure they’re both on your horizontals in what appears to be a spread-type race. I’ll go 2-9-10.
Race 3
5 – Fight On Lucy – she got into a speed duel with the eventual winner and lost convincingly in the first start off the six-month break, but hung on for third and posted a very sharp work on 7/2. The second start off the bench should help, and she’s never missed the board at today’s distance (3: 0-1-2). Should get a nice price. 5-3-6.
Race 4
5 – Cash Offer – if you’re looking for a single in the early pick 5, I think this is a good choice. The Shackleford filly is pure speed and should certainly get the jump on the three horses to her outside. If the speed to her inside materializes, I think the perfect stalking trip is there for the taking. If it doesn’t and she makes the lead, I just don’t see her getting run down by anyone in here. Allowance company at a tricky distance, but she has the goods for this level. 5-4-2
Race 5
6 – Montauk Daddy – I like two year olds with a start under their belt against a field with mostly first-timers, and Linda Rice hits on 30% of her second-try runners. He rallied nicely in debut to finish 2nd in the slop, and he’ll get his first turf try today against a salty bunch. Thinking about using ALL to finish the pick 5, with a smaller ticket focused on this guy plus the Clement and Ward first-timers. 6-10-5.
Race 6 – The Dwyer (GIII, $250k)
1 – Mihos – I’m taking a swing with the Jerkens colt that hasn’t been seen since a tough fifth in the Holy Bull back in February at Gulfstream. Code of Honor is a deserving favorite coming off the Derby trail, but in a short field going a mile with tons of speed coming after him, I’m looking for the horse that can bet on a pace meltdown, save ground and take advantage late. Jerkens hits on 25% of his runners off 61-180 days, and today is a good chance at a nice price. 1-2-3.
Race 7 – Belmont Oaks (G1, $750k)
2 – Newspaperofrecord – LET. HER. RUN. I haven’t been burned nearly as much as others on this filly, but it looks like the only option left to break this mini-slump is to go and never look back. She’s the controlling speed in here but the distance is a concern… she’s faded in her last two but will be a much better price comparatively this time around. A crossroads moment for her, and I think she gets it done wire to wire. 2-9-1
Race 8 – The John Nerud (G2, $300k)
9 – Promises Fulfilled – hard to mention class relief in a very solid GII event, but this guy has been brawling with some MONSTERS as of late and he’ll certainly appreciate this bunch to get back in the win column. His Met Mile was very good against one of the best fields the race has ever produced, and he cuts back to what might be his preferred seven-panel trip (4: 2-0-2). Outside draw and a clean break and this one is over in my humble opinion. Do Share and Nicodemus look like fantastic choices to pick up the place and show spots. 9-7-4.
Race 9 – Belmont Derby (G1, $1mil) 13-3-6
Race 10 1-3-6
Race 11 12-9-11
2019 Belmont
Week 1 (4/27) – 9: 0-0-3, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 2 (5/4) – 12: 3-2-1, -44.5% ROI ($24 wagered, $13.30 returned)
Week 3 (5/18) – 12: 2-2-4, -50.4% ROI ($24 wagered, $11.90 returned)
Week 4 (6/8) – 11: 3-2-1, -56.8% ($22 wagered, $9.50 returned)
Week 5 (6/15) – 10: 3-0-1, +33% ($20 wagered, $26.60 returned)
Total – 54: 11-6-10, -43.2% ROI ($108 wagered, $61.30 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 256: 62-43-34, -22% ($512 wagered, $399.50 returned)
Win Rate = 24.2%
ITM Rate = 54.3%