Race 4
3 – Red Storm Risen – trying to beat the even money Mott horse on the rail this time, as I think Motion has this one ratcheting up towards a two turn triumph. Kept on going despite coming up short at a mile on the Belmont sod last month, keeps Johnny V and adds the extra panel today. Not a ton of speed in here so he should be forwardly-paced, and it looks like he certainly wants the added ground. Motion is a 25% trainer 2nd-off the 180+ break. 3-4-1
Race 5
3 – Tiz He the One – not the best meet for Linda Rice, but she’s been improving as of late and shows up here with a very nice Tiznow gelding who’s dropping into optional claiming ranks from grade 3 and listed company at Laurel. He’s shown very nice tactical speed and should find a nice pace to sit off with the speed signed on, and the works look like he’s ready to fire. Will likely be boxing with Irad on the outside to the tune of a heavy exacta if the prices stay fair, and will use just those two to close out the early pick 5. 3-7-6
Race 6
11 – Zaccapa – going with the French newcomer out of the Brad Cox barn, as he connects with 43% of his first-time North American starters and does so at a $4.09 ROI. In a much larger sample he’s 24% with first-time runners out of his barn, and he has his trusted friend Florent Geroux in the irons. The 8-1 ML seems too good to be true, but with the Chad runners in here we actually could get something close. 11-12-10
Race 7
8 – Danfusi – not crazy about Clemente horses second off this layoff (1 for 29), but I don’t want to over-think it. I think he has a real shot to be a loose leader in a field that doesn’t have much speed on paper, and he hasn’t missed the exacta in both tries over the Belmont lawn going today’s 1 & 1/16th distance. Look for Joel to get him out there and try to walk them down the backstretch. 8-4-2
Race 8
1 – Dream Friend – hasn’t missed the board in all six career turf tries and ran a bang-up second to today’s likely favorite last month in an optional claimer here at Belmont. He has consistent, reliable early speed and draws the rail, and his two works since the last race have been very sharp. 8-1 on the ML and it should stay there considering the names in this bunch. Let’s see Jose get him on the lead and see who can catch him. 1-9-2
Race 9
3 – McKinzie – I’ll admit he really let me down in Saudi Arabia as I had him behind Max in a sizeable straight exacta, but that’s one race on another continent and this is a really good racehorse. He’s been in some huge spots at classic and two-turn distances, but I think the one-turn mile here at Belmont hits him right between the eyes. Last year’s Met Mile, another fantastic edition, found him behind a wall of horses on the turn and he weaved through to finish a hard-luck second to perhaps an all-time sprinter in Mitole. He doesn’t have such an opponent today, and though this field is very salty and maybe the best race of the year on paper in North America thus far, I think he gets the trip and shows his class this afternoon. 3-2-6
Race 10
2 – Rockemperor – lost a brutal bob at Santa Anita in May at this distance, but was DQ’d anyway for some lane shenanigans. Made his move late that day even though he sat a nice trip off the pace. Not a ton of speed in here today, so I expect Johnny V to have him somewhat forwardly placed to avoid needing that “from the clouds” trip against the race-flow. He’s tried 1 & ¼ seven times and has landed in the trifecta in six of those, so you can rely on him to show up. This has the “other Chad” feel, as Instilled Regard to his inside will likely be the fav and Irad hopped off to take that mount, so let’s hope for an overlay here and get a perfect trip on a very live runner. 2-1-5
Race 11
4 – Mr. Buff – writing this as of 11:30am on Saturday, Joevia is now scratched and the pace scenario just changed drastically in the favor of John Kimmel’s six year old battler. He knows one speed and fires every time out, and today he might be alone out there on a racetrack that he’s very familiar with. If he gets a fast surface, he sports an 11 for 29 record on such occasions (with nine more place and show finishes), and I’m not too worried about going the extra panel for the first time. Tacitus looms in here, but he’s somewhat pace dependent and has trouble finding the winners circle so I’ll try to beat at a price. I like Irad on Just Whistle to get a good trip and round out the exacta, and I’ll use my top three in here for the late pick 5. 4-7-1
Have a great Saturday everyone!
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 611: 137-116-96, -19.1% ($1,222 wagered, $989 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.6%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 57.5%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Final Total: 121: 26-23-20, -13.8% ROI ($242 wagered, $208.50 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)