Race 1: 6
I’m not a fan of the price that we are going to get today on Bebaeu as he was a beaten favorite at a short price last time out, but that race was against similar and all things considered it wasn’t a bad race, especially when you go back and watch it to see that he was almost on the rail at Saratoga which was not the place to be the summer. Coming back against similar company here, if this one is ever going to find the winners circle for TAP this is the spot.
Race 2: 8
I know Junior took a spill on Thursday, so I am hoping he is all set to ride today. If he is not, I will need to see who the rider is on Stretchthestory. For now, though with the assumption that Junior is in the irons she will be my top pick. She should improve 2nd time out for Clement and her debut race she finished very well after starting slow. Junior and Clement have been a very profitable team to play all year with their limited starters together. Only 14 starters but a $3.59 ROI with a 29%-win percentage.
Race 3: 6
With only 6 runners here and them all in my eyes being fairly equal I may use the “All” button here on my early Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. As a top pick though I landed on Today Comes Once who is coming in off a 6 month layoff but does have a win at this distance this year and gets a major jockey upgrade to Johnny V.
Race 4: 2
Jen’s Battle looked solid getting on the turf for the first time in her 3rd career start. Unfortunately for her she was met with other speed and went to quick early. With Irad on her today I think she is going to sit right off the pace and hopefully she will have something left for the long Belmont stretch.
Race 5: 5
A Jason Servis turf horse that isn’t going to be the favorite…yeah sign me up. Now I won’t single Broken Border, but at this point if you aren’t using these Servis horses on the turf you are playing with fire. This one dominated against weaker last time out, but the others in here have been camera shy so stepping a bit up in class and stretching out doesn’t bother me one bit, especially at 9-2 morning line which we will likely get if there aren’t too many scratches here.
Race 6: 3
Going with Imperioso who was purchased for only 3K in March of 2019 and now is in here for a 50K Tag. He has been training well over the past month and gets Rosario in the irons first time out. Stidham is 29% in maiden claiming races and him and Rosario are 19% in 2019.
Race 7: 1
Landed on Misericordia (GB) here as she is stretching out and has been close in her last 2 races. She is also getting Lezcano in the irons who has been hot to start the meet. This might be another race where I use the “All” button and hope to get a price home. This is a short field where in my opinion there are no standouts and 8/5 morning line on JC’s Shooting Star while not a horrible overall price on a horse, isn’t exactly great for this one who has been camera shy recently but is too dangerous here to leave off tickets.
Race 8: 9
Whiskey Is My Wine I think looks very tough here for Jorge Abreu with Irad getting the mount today. This one does his best running from off the pace and Irad is a perfect fit for this one. Not a huge fan of the cutback in distance but I think if Irad keeps this one mid pack early he should have enough left in the tank late to run the leaders down.