Race 1: 1,4,6
Todd Pletcher has 2 runners here Mrs. S who will most likely be a heavy favorite and Indawin and in my opinion you should use both on your tickets. I have Mrs. S on top because if she improves off her debut races where she finished 2nd as the favorite she will be tough to beat. She is also getting a jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz who has is 21% this meet. Indawin is the other Pletcher horse here who is a Calumet Farms homebred and I am a huge fan of the pedigree on this one for this field. She also gets Johnny V in the irons who doesn’t just jump on 2 year old’s at this point in his career.
Race 2: 9,6,1
Love of My Heart is stretching out for her 2nd career start and based on her pedigree I think she should show a huge improvement today. She gets Lezcano in the irons today who is 20% this meet and while Mark Casse only has 2 wins this Belmont meet, he is 25% in the money with his horses this meet which isn’t too bad. For first time starters here Noble Enterprise is intriguing and at a price I would include on your tickets. I know Peter Pugh is not known for first time starters but this one has a very solid pedigree for this distance and in my opinion is one of the few here actually has major turf pedigree on both the sire and dam sides.
Race 3: 1,4,5
Plainsman is dropping out of the G2 Kelso and is stretching back out today which I think he should benefit from. He gets Rosario back in the irons who seems to fit this one very well as with Rosario in the irons this horse always seems to be in contention to win. I am also a fan of You’re to Blame here who is dropping out of stakes company today to run here as well and his last race outside of stakes company was 5 races back where he won at this distance at Gulfstream Park. Now I don’t think he is as good as Plainsman, but I’ve been on this horse all year and would hate to jump off now where he should be a fair price. Both of these 2 horses will be on all my tickets.
Race 4: 11,7,12
Sadie Lady is stretching out today to 7f and based on her running style which is right on the pace. Rosario is back in the irons for the 5th straight race and has never finished worse than 2 lengths back at the wire. Lovely La La was my top choice last time out despite Eric Cancel being in the irons and that turned out to be a mistake as Cancel gave this horse a horrible trip last time out. Today Javier gets the mount and instantly this one becomes a major contender here. I would not leave this one off your tickets. If you can afford to play a bigger early Pick 4 and 5 ticket Theaterintheround is one of those horses who always seems to run good races and is usually overlooked. Morning line 6-1 today and I am going to guess we get around 4-1 which is still solid value. I think she would need some help to beat my top 2 in here but I would not be surprised if she finds a way to get the job done or at the very least finish in the money.
Race 5: 1,3,6
Girls at Tosconova showed a huge improvement from her 2 year old to her 3 year old form in her 3 year old debut where she finished 3rd going shorter but looked very good. Today she gets Junior back in the irons and I am expecting an improvement today and with there being what should be an honest pace in here I think she can get another solid trip coming from the back and catch the leaders at the wire. Collegeville Girl is coming out of the G1 Cotillion where she was beyond overmatched against that field and she finished a well beaten last (37+ lengths), but today dropping back down to an allowance race should bounce back. There is other speed in here and her 2 career wins have been when she controls the early pace so I think she is a tough single, but I would use her on tickets because she has shown to be fast out of the gate.
Race 6: 6,4,13
If you have followed my selections either here on The Daily Gallop or just in general with Real Dynasty Picks, you know that I love Declaration of War sired horsed so there is zero surprise that I landed on Logic N Reason here, but I do have a logical reason for doing so. She is stretching out again which I love seeing on the turf and her first 2 career races have been good compared to others in this field. She is also getting Rosario back in the irons who was on her in her debut at Saratoga where she was bothered in the stretched and got placed up from 5th to 4th because of it. Also if you have been following me you know I am not a huge fan of cut backs on the turf, but against this field I think Apurate for Todd Pletcher is interesting. Has shown early speed in all 3 career starts so the cut back is less of a concern and is dropping out of an ungraded stake to run here today. She also keeps Johnny V in the irons which is always a huge plus to see. If Moral Reasoning draws in for Chad Brown she is also a must us horse here in my opinion as she finished in front of my top pick Logic N Reason last time out.
Race 7: 4,3,8
Leitone (Chi) is going out for Jason Servis who I know people can’t stand but he is 31% this meet and his horses have come in the money 60% of the time this meet so leave this one off your tickets at your own risk. I also like Mills here getting Rosario back in the irons and I think with the pace scenario that looks like will unfold here that Mills should get a very good set up for his late run. Super Dude is a wildcard for me and is the third horse I will use here as he likes to sit just off the pace and if he gets first run at the leaders in the stretch he may be tough to run down late.
Race 8: 6,4,8
Made You Look is dropping down in class today after running in 3 straight stakes races including 2 G1’s so this is some massive class relief. Yes Bound for Nowhere is in here and he has won some big races in his own right, but with issues making starting gates this year and as the morning line 6/5 favorite I am trying to beat him with Made You Look. Yes his Woodbine Mile was not a great effort, but he ran into a freak in Got Stormy in the 4StarDave at Saratoga and was right there at the finish in the G3 Poker. If he runs back to either of those 2 races the rest will be running for second place here.
Race 9: 6,12,9
I am taking a shot here with Silver Token who is stretching out a bit on the turf today for Linda Rice and ran alright in is 3 year old debut so with a bit of expected improvement I think he fits with this field. He has been working well since that start at Saratoga where he made up ground late and Linda Rice is 23% with 31-60 day layoffs. He does get a rider change to Lezcano who is solid even though it is not a great sign that he has had 3 riders now in 3 career starts. Capt. Courageous is another one I will be using on my tickets as he just missed against similar last time out here and has run alright from a 12 post before. He gets Manny back in the irons who has been on him before and at a morning line of 8-1 I think he is worth usage on tickets.
Early Pick 4: 6,9 / 1,4 / 7,11 / All
$28.00Ticket for $0.50 Play
Late Pick 4: 4,6,13 / 3,4,8 / 6 / 1,3,4,6,9,11,12
$31.50 Ticket for $0.50 Play
Good Luck and follow @PicksByDynasty for updates due to scratches and multi race plays.