Top Pick Results Belmont:13-4-6-0
2019 Belmont $2 win bet: -$7.00
2019 Belmont $2 win/place bet: + $11.30
Race 1: 5,6,4
Golden Vale is coming off a 3rd place finish against similar and with the jockey upgrade to Carmouche today I am giving her another shot. She has tactical speed and does have a win over the Belmont track. Also Brad Cox has started hot this meet.
Zecha ran poorly last tie out, but her start 2 back makes her very competitive in ere. She gets a jockey upgrade to Saez and is another one with tactical speed. She has never won here at Belmont but has never finished out of the money in 3 career efforts.
Salty Smile is a horse I would only use underneath in exotic wagers. She has finished in the money in 4 of her 6 career starts at Belmont and is coming off losing a photo finish for 1st in her last effort against similar. She will be a shorter price in this small field so is a horse I would key for 2nd and 3rd.
Race 2: 1,3,6 *Off Turf – 7
It’s a Shaw Thing is getting back on the turf and getting a slight relief in class. With her early speed I am taking a shot here that she can take them all the way around. Looking back at her lone turf effort, it was against much tougher horses including the winner being Concrete Rose who ran down Newspaperofrecord on Kentucky Oaks Day.
Getmotherarose is dropping back down to a maiden claiming where last time she ran at this level she lost first place late by a nose. Saez is back on her today and he was on her in that last maiden claiming effort back in December. Will be interesting to see if she is aggressive or not out of the gate like she was on that day. I am going with the idea that Saez will sit her off and the 1 horse will be alone on the lead early.
Unblemished is a horse who I would not touch if she gets bet down under 4-1. Never a good sign in my opinion when a horse has only had a couple of chances and then thrown in for a tag. Using her as an example, she ran okay in her debut race in February, then ran on the main track after the race was taken off the turf and did not like the track. Now dropping in class and in here for a claim…eh I am going to need some solid odds to back this one.
* If this race comes off the turf I will single Queen Kahen for Rudy and Zayat stables. Has the pedigree to handle a wet track and has been working well on the dirt.
Race 3: 1,5,3
Candy Promises is dropping a bit in class today and is keeping Kendrick in the irons which I like to see. He also gets back at Belmont where he did win a race last May. Duggan has not been too successful with cutbacks or sprints, but in a race with no pace I think Kendrick takes this one right to the lead.
Javelin is the horse to beat coming in off back to back wins, but I am unsure if there will be a fast pace in here today with this field. His last 2 races the half mile times have been :46 and :45 and I do not see anyone in this field running though numbers. Even without a pace though he is the horse to beat and I would not leave him off your multi race tickets.
American Lincoln is inconsistent but is a horse that if the good one shows up can upset this field. He has never run at this distance before and trainer Andrew Williams has never won a claiming race, but this field is weak enough that today could be the day. If he stays around 10-1 like his morning line, I think he is worth using on some tickets.
Race 4: 5,11 *Off Turf – 10,3
Poppy Joe Rocks will be the favorite in here but trainer Joe Sharp is so successful with this move that he is a worthy favorite. Sharp is over 25% in claiming, sprints, and cutting horses back from a route to a sprint and additionally is 32% specifically in turf sprints. Also he gets a jockey upgrade today to Saez.
If Jose wasn’t riding Lem Me Tel Ya I would single Poppy Joe Rocks, but Jose in my opinion is one of the top 3 turf riders in the country and it doesn’t matter if it is a claiming race or a G1 stake, Jose brings out the best of his mounts on the turf and I can’t toss him on multi race tickets.
*Off the turf Shamrock Kid is the one to beat. Has been running well against much tougher than this and gets Kendrick in the irons and with his front-end running style will be a huge threat to go gate to wire.
*I would use Major Flirt underneath if this race comes off the turf as well. Had her in her maiden win, then did not want to go a full mile last time out. Cutting back today she will provide value and should run well.
Race 5: 5,7,3
I know TAP didn’t have a great 2018 with his 2-year old’s, but I am thinking 2019 is going to be much different for him. I am going with Wudda U Think Now on top who is a son of Fast Anna who was just fast. In this 5f race I am hoping Irad plays catch me if you can here.
The other TAP in here is Mo Ready for Repole with Johnny B in the irons. He has solid works and anytime Johnny V is put on a 2-year-old for TAP the horse must be considered. Not using this one on top because I am not a huge fan of 2 year old’s breaking from the outside post, but I will use this one in all my multi race bets.
Theitalianamerican was purchased for 30K as a 2 year old and while that is not a ton of money in horse racing, he does get Rosario in the irons for his debut and has some fast works. At morning line of 10-1 he should provide value and I can see this one running a big race first time out.
Race 6:
Nothing about race 6 makes me want to play it. Maiden claiming race on the inner turf, no thanks. If I had to play I would play the 3 Funny Money honey dropping in class and getting a jockey upgrade to Junior, but if you do not need to play this race then personally I would skip it.
Race 7: 2,4,5
Identity Politics ran in the G1 Carter last time out and well overmatched, but today is dropping back down and if he runs back to his form on March 3rd will be very tough here. Probably will be the favorite but is a must use. Achilles Warrior goes out for Mark Hennig and had an impressive 3-year-old debut as he just missed against olders first time off the bench. If he repeats that effort, he will be tough again here today and should stay around 3-1 if there are not any scratches.
American Power runs consistent just usually not good enough to win, but for exotic wagers is a must use. Has finished in the top 3 in 11 of 14 career starts and the 3 times he missed the money he rounded out the superfecta.
Race 8: 5,7,1
Direct Order is in here for a tag for Jason Servis who has been red hot with moves like this. He was also a narrowly defeated 2nd last time out against similar and today at Belmont I think he gets the job done.
Bernin’ Thru Gold is coming off a dominate performance in the slop at Gulfstream, and if the trac is muddy today this one better be on your tickets with his pedigree. He gets a jockey upgrade to Lezcano today as well that makes him very dangerous on a wet track.
Sniper Shot either freaked in his last race or is a late bloomer for Pletcher. I am thinking that this one just loved the slop last time out. If it is muddy again then he is a must use with his pedigree, but if the track is dry or not sloppy then I would play against this one at a short price.
Jimi Bags has been close in her last 2 efforts but just can’t find a way to win. Today’s field is fairly soft and if Enthusiastic Gal doesn’t fire off the bench Jimi Bags will be the likely winner.
Race 9: 10,9,3
Mandatory Payout is dropping in class today and cutting back in distance and I think that should benefit him a lot. Rob Atras has cooled down significantly since that hot start he had at Aqueduct, but he is still over 50% in the money and at 9-2 morning line I will take a shot with him.
Lone Pioneer is another one going out for Rob Atras and is getting back to the dirt today but keeps Junior in the irons. This one comes from off the pace and I can see winning, but as the likely favorite I prefer the other Atras horse.
Our Honor is adding blinkers and is going out for the first time for Schettino. If no one runs with him early I can see him going gate to wire here but would be tough to play in my opinion at a short price. Morning line is at 4-1 and I think he will get bet down. If he is 4-1 or 7-2 I think he is worth a play, any shorter and let this one beat you.