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Race 1: 5,1,3
Cordington is cutting back today to 7f and adding Jose Ortiz which is a move I like a lot. Her 2 starts in 2019 she has sat a few lengths behind the pace and kept on late. Today with Jose on her I expect him to sit close to the pace again and with the cutback in distance she should be a threat turning for home.
Theaterintheround was nearly my top pick today and will be included on all of my tickets. She adds Joel Rosario in the irons today which is a huge improvement, but trainer Raymond Handal is a sneaky 32% with horses cutting back from a sprint to a route. The reason she was not my top pick is because most of those wins for Handal have been on the dirt as he is only 7% on the turf, but with the addition of Rosario in the irons I think makes this one very playable.
Puffery is trying turf for the first time today and does get Lezcano back in the irons who was on her in her only career win back on December 13th at Aqueduct. She has shown tactical speed on the dirt and if that translates to the turf, she could be a threat. Trainer Mark Hennig has not been doing well with the dirt to turf switch however as he is only 4% and is an uninspiring 0-26 with first time turf. Using this one underneath in exotics and if I have the room due to scratches may include on a Pick 5.
Race 2: 5,3
I have been against Inclunation in his last few starts but today boy if he is ever going to win a race this has to be the spot. He gets a jockey change to Saez today who should be aggressive with him out of the gate and I don’t see anyone else in this field being able to stick with him early. Yes, he hasn’t had a kick late in his career but I don’t think he will need it if Saez is able to control the pace up front.
Power Boss is going from turf to dirt today and was nearly my top pick, but I am not a fan of him coming from so far back each race. If the pace is not hot like I am expecting, then I think he will have a tough time catching the front runners. The only time he has been close to the lead early in a race was back on May 11th here at Belmont on the turf with Kendrick on him who is on him again today. If he can sit close like this, I think he can beat this field so I will keep him on my tickets.
Race 3: 4,9,3
Uhtred gets Irad Ortiz back in the irons today and I think that will make all the difference. Was 3rd last time out against similar at this distance with Cancel in the irons but broke his maiden with Irad riding and there is a reason that Irad is considered one of the top jockey’s in the country.
Seanow is coming off a win last time out at this distance against similar here at Belmont for Pletcher. He gets Saez back in the irons which I like and should be able to be on the lead early. My only issue with Seanow has he has not been able to win without being the controlling pace as both career wins are gate to wire and I do not think he is lone speed in here.
Rucksack is trying turf for the first time and while I already talked about Raymond Handal’s turf struggles in race 1, this 4 year old gelding is sired by Blame who has been a very productive turf sire. If Rucksack takes to the turf I would not be surprised if he is a stubborn foe in the stretch, especially with Rosario in the irons.
Race 4: 3,6
Analyze Your Risk in my opinion is the obvious single in the early pick 4 and pick 5 sequence and I think he is too tough to try and beat here, especially with Pletchers stats when dropping horses from a MSW to a MCL (41%). He ran 3rd last time out and is adding a bit of distance today which I like. He is also adding Saez who is having a very solid meet so far winning at 22%.
Best Surprise Ever is getting an honorable mention here because I am a fan of horses sired by Giant Surprise going 6f or less on the dirt. He does get Lasix first time out and has some decent workouts. If you have room on your ticket or don’t like the Pletcher horse I think best Surprise Ever is the next logical horse in this field.
Race 5: 1,3
Landed on Candid Desire here to close out the early Pick 5 who is a first off the claim horse for fan favorite trainer Jorge Navarro (Sarcasm). I am more of a fan of the jockey change to Saez here more than I am the trainer change which is why I put this horse on top. He has been making up ground in his last 2 starts at this distance and today with a jockey change to a more aggressive rider in Saez I think he sits close enough to be a win threat late.
Blue Belt on paper looks to be the controlling speed here for Lezcano and I think is too dangerous to be left off tickets, specially coming into this race with 2 very nice workouts. He may be a bit camera shy, but gets Lezcano in the irons who is red hot this meet and has always run well at this level.
Race 6: 5,4,6
Militiaman goes out for Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz back in the irons and is coming off a win last time out at this distance here at Belmont. He showed a significant improvement from his debut race back in March and another improvement today would make this one tough to beat.
Rapt is dropping out of stakes company and is stretching out which I like. Jose Ortiz gets the mount which I like on a horse with his closing running style. Not sure if he will get a fast enough pace up front today, but is one that should be considered for exotic wagers at least.
Hierarchy is one of those horses who always looks good on paper but can never seem to find the winners circle. He gets Lezcano back in the irons today for his 3rd start in a row and has run well in his last 2 races. If he has solid value I think he is worth a play and for multi’s should be used, but if you need a cut a horse out to make a ticket more affordable I think he is on the chopping block for horses to be left out.
Race 7: 8,9,2
Rossellini is going to be price, but I’m not sold heavily on any of the top few choices so taking a shot with her in this one. She has improved in each of her career starts including a win last time out here at Belmont. Will need to improve again today to win here but at over 10-1 I think she is worth keeping on tickets, especially with her pedigree.
Architect did not running last time out in her only career effort at Belmont and was wide in that race and breaking from the outside won’t help her today. She ran against similar last time and did not do enough to win here with that effort. She does get Jose back in the irons which is encouraging and Linda Rice on the turf is always worth a look.
Enlisting jumping back to the turf today after 4 straight races on the dirt is a bit surprising. She ran in 2 races on the turf in her career but did not run particularly well in either effort. She has been running against tougher on the dirt and does get Javier in the irons today which is a positive sign. I would include this one on your tickets.
Race 8: 8,7,5
Life in Shambles is going from dirt to turf for Jason Servis who is 25% with this move and 34% in turf sprints. Ran against much tougher on the dirt including finishing 4th length behind World of Trouble in the G1 Carter Handicap back in April. There is enough pace in here that if Life in Shambles sits 3-4 lengths back like usual I can see a big move in the stretch happening.
Oleksandra (Aus) is a coming in off a win last time out and gets Rosario back in the irons again today. An improvement will be needed today to beat this field but is another one like Life in Shambles that should sit a few lengths behind the pace and pounce late. Also, Rosario has been on fire on the turf this year.
Dr. Shane has a chance here to be the outside early speed and I think that makes him very dangerous. There is other speed in here, but he has shown the ability in the past to press and still have enough left late. Also, Danny Gargan is 25% with sprinters.
Race 9: 1,3,8
Go With Honor is shipping in for his 3 year old debut and is switching to the turf for the first time. Baker is 23% when dropping horses from MSW to MCL and is 21% with maidens 2nd time out. His turf stats are not that great at all but this field seems very weak where I am not willing to take a horse at lower then 4-1.
Lorri’s Candy gets a jockey change to Saez and I think has a shot to go gate to wire against this field. I worry that he jumped up so much in his last start that he does not improve today and I am not sure that his left effort is good enough to win here. Will keep on tickets at a price.
Magnesite would’ve been my top pick if he was not trained by David Donk who is ICE COLD this meet with only being 2 for 57 this meet. Irad is on him today and I will use this one defensively, but I can’t put a horse on top that is coming from an ice cold barn.