Last week we had 3 on top winners and we’re hoping for some more this week. Today’s feature is a blacktype turf sprint for older fillies and mares and there’s some good value to be found in the card today. Best of luck if you’re playing along and be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts35.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 277-74-48-63 (27% win, 67% ITM)
Belmont Spring Meet ROI: $1.77 ($40 bet, $35.30 returned)
Early pick 5 ticket: 4/2,3,6/1,3/3,4/1,3,5,7 ($24)
Race 1 Claiming 40k N2L 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 4-1-6
Top Pick: I’ll be siding with the 4-5 chalk in #4 Star of the West here. Looks to be the lone speed and comes off a romp of a maiden win in his 2020 debut at the same distance. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a positive ROI and a 33% win rate second off the layoff so if he improves his last beyer he will win easy today.
Next up: #1 Big Boy Mo might offer some value at 8-1 ML if you’re looking to play against the favorite. First time facing winners and broke his maiden coming from way off the pace, could be there at a nice price if he gets the right trip. Even still, tough to see the 4 getting beat here.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming 20k 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 6-2-3-4
Top Pick: #6 Lost in Rome offers some nice value at 5-1 ML and could be dangerous if he is able to improve off his last effort. Draws a nice spot in a smaller field than his last race and will be coming from off the pace with the right trip.
Next up: #2 Carters got Sass looks to be the best of the speeds in this race and is a contender should he fire first off the layoff which is no problem for trainer Gary Gullo: he’s 22% with a $2.62 ROI with runners coming off extended layoffs. Gets a jock upgrade to Manny Franco and sits at a nice 4-1 ML.
Race 3 Allowance 66k n1x 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 3-1
Top Pick: This is a short field with not much pace with it and #3 Kid Bourbon could make things interesting if he can run to his turf debut two starts back. Has a nice turf pedigree and with an aggressive rider like Luis Saez aboard today he may just be able to pull this off at 6-1 ML.
Next up: #1 Good Governance is easily the horse to beat in this field. Finds a nice n1x race to make his 2020 debut after finishing a game second in the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga last year and Chad Brown’s numbers off the layoff are stellar. That said, there’s no value at 3-5 ML and he may not get the pace he needs to run his best race. I’d look to beat him in this spot.
Race 4 Claiming 25k F&M 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 4-3-11-2
Top Pick: #4 Sanity offers a nice alternative to another potentially overbet favorite here. 6 year old mare is in good form in her 2020 campaign and she finds a nice spot to run in today. Has the back class to be competitive today if she can to run her recent form.
Next up: #3 First Appeal is clearly the horse to beat in this field. It’s a pretty weak race and just on beyers alone she has a sizable advantage over almost all of them. Brad Cox is 26% with runners second off the layoff and she will certainly benefit from the class drop too. Winner at the distance and over the Belmont turf but I’m playing against at 4-5 ML.
Race 5 Claiming 10k 3up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 7-3-1-5
Top Pick: Tough race here and I would use all four horses in multis but #7 Tale of Mist could be a nice value play if you can get a price near 7-2 ML. Gets a jock upgrade to Eric Cancel again and will appreciate this class drop second off the layoff. Winner at Belmont and at the distance, could be there if he gets the right trip.
Next up: #3 Blinded Vision looks to be the speed of the race, I’m not sure he can wire the field going this long but he will set the pace and is certainly a contender if he is not challenged on the field. Demand a price at 3-1 ML.
Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 53k state bred 3up, 1 mile turf
Selections: 4-9-7-5
Top Pick: #4 Barleewon can win here if he can run to his last race and gets a jock upgrade to Johnny V who rode this colt at Saratoga last year. Will be pressing the pace and should make a closing move down the stretch.
Next up: #9 Lord Cadbury is the only first time starter in this field but gets Joel Rosario and Tom Morley has good numbers in all the relative areas. Has some nice turf pedigree and the highest tomlinson number in the field for this distance. 12-1 ML seems like a huge overlay to me which makes him worth looking at.
Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 9-5-6-8
Top Pick: Interesting to note here that every horse is making their 2020 debut here and I like #9 Rinaldi in this spot. He has speed so he should be on the front end with Luis Saez and has the back class to be competitive today. His race in the Saranac was good and now he finds a nice n2x spot to run in drawing from the outside post.
Next up: #5 Dopus Point broke his maiden over turf in 2018 and didn’t take to the grass last year. He is certainly an interesting player if he can run to his turf pedigree and should be closing late. Christophe Clement is 20% with both extended layoffs and making the surface switch. Consider at 7-2 ML.
Race 8 Hessonite Stakes 75k blacktype state bred F&M 4up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 7-5-1-4
Top Pick: #7 Saratoga Treasure drops down to a blacktype stakes after facing tougher in a grade 3 last out. 5 year old mare has the back class to be competitive and she will be dangerous if she can improve second off the layoff for David Donk. Cancel stays aboard and she should be sitting off the pace then making her closing kick down the stretch.
Next up: #5 Mentality appears tough in this spot shipping from over from Churchill after finishing a strong second against allowance n2x company. Dylan Davis has won on her before and she can win if she can improve on her form second off the layoff for Wesley Ward.
Race 9 Maiden Claiming 25k state bred F&M 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 7-9-1-13
Top Pick: I’ll take a swing with a 10-1 ML longshot in the finale with #7 Queentigua. Scratched out of a race yesterday in favor of today and finished a game second against slightly tougher last out at big odds. Will have some pace to run into and if she improves off of that effort she may just be there at a price.
Next up: #9 Mopolka is the most logical choice as the 7-2 ML favorite. Ran a solid race against tougher on the turf so she should benefit from both the drop in class and the surface plus she cuts back to 6 and a half from a mile. Gets a jock upgrade to Luis Saez and will be tough to beat if she is able to improve off her last effort. Beyer par for this level is 57 and she ran a 52 last time.
Worth a mention: #1 Kefaliani is an interesting choice at 9-2 ML. Finished second in the slop last out where she put up a lifetime best beyer behind a next out winner. Will have to improve off the layoff and might get into some trouble drawing the rail in this big field but if she gets the right trip from Cancel she could be there late.