We’re back in business as racing returns to Belmont with a really competitive and puzzling Friday card. Some salty maiden races and the feature is the Commentator Stakes with Mr. Buff who is going for his 5th straight win. Good luck if you’re playing along and be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats- Total: 257-70-43-60 (27% win, 67% ITM)
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 64k 2yo, 5 furlongs turf
8-1A-7-2
Top Pick: #8 Alda is one of a few fillies facing boys in here and this homebred has been training well over the Fair Hill synthetic surface. Graham Motion has a positive ROI with 2 year olds and first time turf starts and 5-1 is a nice price if you can get it as she draws the outside. Johnny V aboard.
Next up: #1A Mrs. Frankel looks ready to go on paper coming from a sire who is getting 12 percent winners from his first-time turfers. Comes from a barn that performs better than average with first time starters.
Race 2 Claiming 25k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
8-3-7-9
Top Pick: #8 Bertranda will be tough to beat if she can repeat her last performance and she has the tactical speed to be dangerous today. First off the claim for Mertkan Kantarmaci who is hitting at 25% with that move and will have to get a good ride especially if the 2 and 4 show speed but like her the most in this spot.
Next up: #3 Gentle Annie is more of a pace play than anything seeing that there could be 3 early speed horses so she could come off the pace and has won with Cancel before.
Race 3 Claiming 25k 3up, 6.5 furlongs
5-1-7-4
Top Pick: #5 Long May You Run could get out to be the lone speed seeing as he has flashed speed against tougher and this hard knocking 9-year-old gelding finds a nice spot to run in today. Has been training well off the layoff as he ships over from Parx.
Next up: #1 Coltandmississippi does his best running late and likes the distance. Might get some pace to run into and be in the mix late.
Race 4 Claiming 40k 3yo, 1 mile turf
1-5-4-9
Top Pick: #1 King of Ranch is one of several shipping up from Gulfstream to take to the Belmont turf course and he is in good form coming off a couple solid efforts. Has the tactical speed to be close to or on the lead early then close down the stretch.
Next up: #5 Torres Del Paine drops down in for a tag after a stakes race at Turfway proved to be too much. That said, he ran really well over the Woodbine synthetic in a grade 3 that would make him competitive here today and should handle the Belmont turf well enough.
Race 5 Maiden Claiming 30k state bred fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
13-1A
Top Pick: #13 Charlotte Webley has shown speed against tougher at the maiden special level and Jeremiah Englehart is hitting 32% making the switch from msw to mcl. Will be competitive if she can get out of the gate and get to the front from the outside.
Next up: There’s some value to be found underneath and #1A Queenofeverything will be dangerous if she draws in. Has a lot of speed and her form has been good enough recently to be competitive today.
Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming 62k/n2x fillies and mares 3up, 1 ⅛ miles turf
10-4-9-5
Top Pick: #10 Noor Sahara is one of two Chad Brown runners debuting in the states and has been working well coming in to this race. Finds a nice spot to run in and should have no problem handling the Belmont surface.
Next up: #4 Matty’s Magnum offers some nice value at 15-1 ML, if you look past the recent dirt races he was in good form over the turf and has the back class to be competitive at a price.
Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 53k state bred fillies and mares 3up
11-6-1
Top Pick: #11 Jewel of Arabia will be tough to beat if she can run her best race and maybe this is an unpopular pick cause she will be the chalk of the field but I do think she is well spotted by Christophe Clement today and keeps Rosario aboard.
Next up: #6 Allure Fortune has speed and should be up front most of the way around. Will be dangerous is she can improve second time out for Jeremiah Englehart while cutting back in distance.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming 62k/n2x 3up, 6 furlongs turf
5-2-9
Top Pick: #5 Fortune’s Fool has speed and can run a big race with one of the best turf sprint riders in the game in Carmouche aboard today. Not much turf form to look at but if he can get to the lead he could be dangerous at a price.
Next up: #2 Chewing Gum does his best running late and if he can repeat his last effort that will make him very tough in this spot today. Rosario stays on for Bill Mott.
Race 9 Commentator Stakes 125k state bred 3up, 1 mile
8-3-7
Top Pick: #8 Pat on the Back comes into this race training well after the Grade 1 Cigar Mile proved to be too much. If there is one horse who is able to beat Mr. Buff today he is it. Won the Kelso Handicap last year and will almost certainly be challenging Mr. Buff on the lead. An older male like Mr. Buff can only hold his form for so long and couple that with the layoff he seems vulnerable today.
Next up: #3 Funny Guy is a bit of a longshot if you’re looking for one here but gets a jock upgrade to Rosario and has the back class to get a piece here if he can run his best race.
Race 10 Maiden Special Weight 64k 3yo, 1 ¼ miles
2-11-10
Top Pick: Tough race in the finale going this long on turf but I landed on #2 Shamrocket. Has been running well recently and has the most experience of this group and could be to handle this extra added distance. Junior Alvarado hops on today.
Next up: #11 Amano draws the outside and can improve off his debut where he closed well at a mile and one eighth. Gets Joel Rosario and will be dangerous if he shows improvement second time out.