We head into closing weekend at Belmont as Saratoga is oh so close (July 16!) and while it will be run under different circumstances we’ll still be here to cover all the racing action from the Spa. I’ll continue to do Friday writeups throughout the summer but in the meantime we have a good looking card at Belmont Park today. Looks like there’s some rain in the forecast so like last week I’ll give both on turf and off track picks, last week we didn’t need them but I think today we will. Best of luck if you’re playing along and follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 296-78-55-65 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Belmont Spring Meet ROI: $1.78 ($78 bet, $69.60 returned)
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 64k 2 year olds, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 5-6-1
Top Pick: #5 Blame the Booze will be my top pick for both turf or off track here, he’s the ‘other’ Wesley Ward entry at 5-1 ML and we saw just two weeks ago a similar situation where Wesley sent out 2 uncoupled entries in a 2 year old race and the higher price won. Has some turf pedigree and Manny Franco gets the mount.
Next up: Hard to leave #6 King of Miami off your tickets but even money is too short of a price for me to put on top. He’s by American Pharoah and his babies have dominated on the grass, I would expect a solid effort from this colt drawing the outside as Jose Ortiz gets the mount.
Race 2 Claiming 25k 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 9-4-1-10 OFF 2-3-11
Top Pick: #9 Duncastle is dangerous on the grass as he ships over from Laurel and drops in class. Was running well at Fairgrounds earlier in the year and finds a nice spot here today for Tom Morley. He is 0-5 over the Belmont turf but 4-5 ITM and all of those races are going longer so he should appreciate the 6 furlongs today.
OFF TRACK: #2 Fox Red ran a solid race against 16k claimers last race and now steps up first off the claim for Michael Miceli. Has good dirt form and enough speed to be competitive at this level. Can improve second off the layoff and Lezcano gets the call today.
Race 3 Maiden Claiming 20k 3up, 1 mile
Selections: 1-9-8-4
Top Pick: Tough race where you could use all of the 1, 4, 8, and 9 but I’ll take #1 Heirloom Kitten who could offer some nice value at 6-1 ML. Linda Rice runner switches to dirt and has shown some potential over a dirt course last year at Churchill where he ran fourth in both starts there against maiden special company. Draws the rail and Eric Cancel takes the mount.
Next up: #9 Striking Speed is another Linda Rice runner at a much shorter price at 9-5 ML, he could also benefit from a surface switch and drops way down in class. Lezcano keeps the mount and his beyer on debut was actually than today’s par.
Race 4 Claiming 12.5k F&M 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 2-5-8
Top Pick: In a race loaded with speed #2 Miss Jak figures to sit off the pace and make a move down the stretch. Manny Franco keeps the mount for Rob Atras for this mare that is dropping in class and can improve second off the layoff.
Next up: #5 Malarkey looks like an overlay at 6-1 ML for Linda Rice and Jose Ortiz, will have to be careful to not get involved in a speed duel since it looks like he will be on the front end but can improve off her last effort off a quick turnaround from the last race just one week ago.
Race 5 Starter Allowance 50k F&M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 6-9-3-1 OFF 10-7
Top Pick: #6 Kitten by the Sea finds a nice spot to run in first off the claim for Todd Pletcher who doesn’t usually claim horses so interesting to see him ship this horse from Gulfstream first off the claim. Jose gets the mount as this filly goes for her third straight win.
OFF TRACK: #10 Bossy Bride is entered as an MTO and is even money if she draws in which should speak to the quality of any of these horses on the dirt, will get Junior aboard as she ships from Delaware.
Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 53k state bred F&M 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 9-10-7-4
Top Pick: #9 Voice of Spring is eligible to improve off a good debut where she came from way off a hot pace and close to finish fourth. Faced Vivazano and Jewel of Arabia last out and Lezcano keeps the mount for Linda Rice today.
Next up: #10 Jewel of Arabia is the horse to beat after being beaten by a neck last time in her 3 year old debut, she can improve for Christophe Clement but 2-1 is a short price for a filly who has now been the beaten favorite twice in a row.
Race 7 Claiming 35k N3L F&M 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 10-9-12-1 OFF 6-11
Top Pick: #10 Noble Jewel is the most logical choice on the grass at 2-1 ML, steps up to N3L company to face a pretty weak field as bug rider Cardenas keeps the mount. Likes the Belmont surface and distance and beyer wise she is in good form.
OFF TRACK: #6 Gracetown will probably be the favorite if this race comes off but there is not a lot of dirt form in here and she stacks up pretty well class wise. 4-5 ITM on a wet track as Jose Lezcano takes the mount for Linda Rice.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming 40k n2x state bred 3up, 1 mile
Selections: 1A-7-10-5
Top Pick: #1A I Love Jaxson is a closer in a race with a lot of speed, he should use his running style to his advantage today as Jose Lezcano stays aboard. Looks to be in good form as he drops slightly in class for Linda Rice.
Next up: #7 Dopus Point is another closer type who does his best running late, look for both of them to be making moves late with the setup. In 5 tries over the Belmont surface has not finished outside the top 3 but with only 1 win. Junior Alvarado gets the call today.
Race 9 Gold Fever Stakes 80k 3 year olds, 6 furlongs
Selections: 6-2-5-4
Top Pick: #6 Long Weekend is much the best in here opening at 1-2 ML, there’s really not much value here but he appears to be graded stakes caliber and is simply faster than the rest of them. He has worked really well as of late and Jose Ortiz gets the call today.
Next up: #2 Newstome is intriguing at 6-1 ML, won his last race against stakes company over the Woodbine surface and now ships over to Belmont with Manny Franco. Will have to run his best race and then some to be able to beat Long Weekend.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred F&M 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 3-9-14-1
Top Pick: #3 Tiny Magoo can improve off his debut at Aqueduct in February, Dylan Davis keeps the mount and 5-1 ML is a nice price on her. Michael Miceli is 27% with runners coming off of layoffs.
Next up: #9 Silent Empress is a first time starter for Christophe Clement who has positive numbers in every relevant category and has this filly prepped to run in this spot, Eric Cancel gets the mount for the debut. #14 Frenchie Frou Frou is worth a look at as an also-eligible if she draws in especially if Manny Franco opts to ride her over the 6.