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Top Pick Results Belmont:
2019 Belmont Overall:
Top Pick Results 2019: 99-36-22-16
2019 Overall: +0.20
Top Pick Results Overall: 140-46-32-17
$-10.80
Race 1: 1,5,2
With a likely fast pace with both Equal the Score and Professor Snape I landed on T Loves a Fight going out 1st off the claim for Brad Cox. Cox has been excellent putting horses in spots like this and with Kendrick in the irons breaking from the rail I think he will get a great trip and set up. He also beat Professor Snape back in February at Aqueduct at this distance and class.
Professor Snape is dropping back down for a tag after running against tougher last time and gets a jockey upgrade to Manny Franco today. He also has run well over this Belmont track in the past finishing in the money in 7 of 9 career starts here.
Equal the Score goes out for Rob Atras who is coming off a fantastic Aqueduct meet and is coming in a perfect 2-2 in 2019. There is other speed in here include Professor Snape, but if either of these two get loose on the lead in the early stages they will likely wire. I would use both these two in your early Pick 5.
Race 2: 3,6,5
Warrens Vengeance has run 2nd against similar in her last 2 races and today with a jockey upgrade to Manny Franco I think today is the fay. The early speed is directly to her inside which should result in a good stalking trip.
Queendom is coming off a win against similar last time where he closed into a fast pace to win. I am not sure if the pace will be fast enough upfront for her, but at morning line 10-1 I will take a chance against this field and use her on my tickets.
Stabilize has finished behind Warrens Vengeance in her last 2 races for Rob Atras. She is another who has tactical speed and I will use her underneath for exotic wagers.
Race 3: 1,3,8 *Off Turf -7,2,6
Salsa Bella (Fr) ran well in her 4 year old debut only being beaten by a little over a length. With that race under her belt this year I think we see an improvement for her 2nd start off the layoff. She gets Manny in the irons and gets a soft field.
Helen’s Tiger is stretching out today and with her pedigree I don’t see why she can’t upset this field. The top few betting choices are not exactly the most consistent runners and she gains Rosario in the irons. She has finished in the money in 7 of her 10 career turf starts as well.
Vortex Road is making her 5 year old debut today and gets Kendrick in the irons. She has run well both at this distance and at Belmont in the past and has the tactical speed to be dangerous late.
* If this race comes off the turf, South of the Shore is coming off an impressive maiden win in her 4 year old debut and has run against much tougher in the past on dirt. If it is off the turf she would be my single on the dirt.
Race 4: 3 *Off Turf -11,8
Race 4 is a tough race in the early Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences. Field is full of a bunch of lifetime maidens, but someone has to win here. If I had to pick one on top it would be Crater Rim who has past turf races that make her tough here including a 3rd by less than a length last time Joe Bravo was in the irons. I would use 1,3,6,7,8,9 here if the race is on the turf.
*If this race comes off the turf, I would use both Bella Via Mi Amor and Homemade in my multi race wagers. Both have run alright on the main track in the past and have decent off track pedigrees.
Race 5: 8,3,7
Avalina was my single back on March 29th at Aqueduct where she got caught at the wire going 1 mile. Today they are cutting her back a bit to 7f and with the chance of a wet track she will be my single again here. She broke her maiden over a sloppy track by 13 lengths.
If you aren’t sold on the favorite here Don’t Rush goes out for TAP and is coming out of the same race. She did finish a distant 4th, but had a very poor start that day. She gets Maragh back in the irons and TAP has great numbers going from routes to sprints.
Big Bennys Tribute broke her maiden in the slop and if the track is sloppy, I would use her if you are not going to single Avalina. She has a very good wet track pedigree being sired by Curlin and should improve 2nd time out.
Race 6: 9,7,5 *Off Turf -10,11
First turf starter of the meet for Chad Brown and I’m not going against her. Yes she has been the beaten favorite in all 4 career starts, but her season debut was good and the added ground today should only benefit her.
Saffira ran 3rd in her North American debut last time out and like Moreliklythannot should appreciate the added distance today. She has the Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado team who are about 20% when teaming up.
Lido Key went off at nearly 50-1 last time and ran 4th, right behind the favorite Morelikelythannot. I am not expecting her to be as high of odds today, but at morning line 10-1 and a pedigree that is turf all the way I will not be shocked if she hits the board at the price.
*If this race comes off the turf it will be tough to find an alternative to Safta who is my single if the race is run on the main track. She is coming off a 5th place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks against much tougher and with no one else in this field wanting to run on dirt, she lays over the field if it is a wet main track.
Race 7: 1,4,2
Regal Retort is coming off an open length win over a sloppy track and today with a chance of the track being wet again I will take a shot with her. She has tactical speed and does have a win in her career breaking from the rail.
Mizzen Max will be the favorite in here, but coming off an 8 month layoff I will try and beat her on top, but will include her in my multi race tickets. In 7 career starts she has never finished worse than 2nd and 2 of her 3 career wins have come at this distance.
Aunt Babe has been running her best career races in 2019 and while she has failed to win, she has finishe din the money in 3 of the 4 races and in 2 of those races she was over 10-1. For exotic wager players she is one that you may want to include underneath.
Race 8: 6,4,5
If the track is wet today I will be shocked if we get 4-1 on Eye Luv Lulu. The 8 year old loves the wet track with 8 career wins over it. In her 2 starts this year she already has a win over a wet track and a close 3rd against similar over a dry one. Also Jason Servis is 32% with horses coming back off 61-180 day layoffs.
Pat on the Back may need a race back off the layoff and is not a huge fan of wet tracks. His first race back in 2018 was his worst race in nearly 2 years and was over a wet track. I also think Pat on the Back wants to go a bit longer as her last win was at 1-1/8th here at Belmont. Even so I think she is a must include as she has never finished worse than 3rd here at Belmont.
I will only use Sudden Surprise if the track is wet, but if it is do not overlook Sudden Surprise. Career 7-4-2 over wet tracks and has 5 wins in 11 starts at this distance while getting a jockey upgrade today to Manny Franco.
Race 9: 10,4,12 *Off Turf -13,15,4
Chad Brown with Javier in the irons on the turf, I’m sold. Chiclet’s Dream is coming off a 7 month layoff, but she has never finished worse then 3rd in her 6 race career. Chad is over 30% off layoffs but is only 21% going from routes to sprints. This field does seem weak enough that if she breaks well, she should be a threat late.
Questeq just shows up every race and some days it is good enough, some days it isn’t. In 2019 so far she has finished in the money in 4 of 5 races including a narrow defeat last time out. She can run well on either surface so rain or shine I would use her in exotic wagers.
Drynachan is the 2nd City Zip sired Chad Brown filly in this field who is also coming off a long layoff. She is stretching out today and is running against older horses but in her 2 starts did show tactical speed. If she breaks well she should be a factor here. She also should have solid value on the board with being 6-1 morning line. I am going to include her as she has raced against tougher in the past.
*If this race comes off the turf I am going with My Last Million for Carlton Baker. She has back to back wins at Finger Lakes and is shipping here today against a field who does not have anything stellar regarding dirt horses. She also has finished in the money in 4 of 6 career wet track starts including a win last time out.