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Race #11: The 37^th Running of the $1,000,000 Grade 1 Arlington Million Stakes

(A Breeders’ Cup Win & You’re In Race)

Run at 1 ¼ miles on the turf for three year olds and upward

Post Time: 7:12 PM EDT

There are several important questions that will need to be answered concerning the field for this year’s running of the Arlington Million.

First and foremost: Will Bricks & Mortar continue his string of dominating performances on the grass this year and solidify his status as the leading candidate for Horse of the Year honors?

Or will his stablemate, Robert Bruce, a very talented runner in his own right, be successful in his bid to become the first ever back to back Arlington Million winner in history (John Henry won this race but those victories came in 1981 and 1984)?

Additionally, although it has been widely suggested that the man from Ballydoyle, Aidan O’Brien, would prefer his talented filly, Magic Wand, run in the Million over the Beverly D as she looks to exact revenge on Bricks & Mortar for her narrow defeat back in January in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, that decision appears to be pending until Saturday morning and thus this race will be handicapped as if she is indeed running here instead of the Beverly D.

Finally, the pace scenario for this race looms large as outside of Hunting Horn there does not appear to be much bona fide early speed entered into this field (perhaps Bandua may flash some early gas similar to what he did last time out in the G3 Arlington Handicap). As such, the closers in this field could find themselves at a major disadvantage unless they are positioned closer to the leaders than they normally run.

Selections: (with Magic Wand): 1-3-2 with UNDERNEATH PLAYS of 5 & 10

(Without Magic Wand): 1-3-5 with UNDERNEATH USE OF #10

1. Robert Bruce (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano) 5yo horse by Fast Company, 7/2 ML

• 2^nd to stablemate B&M in the 10F G1 Manhattan Stakes at BP on June 8^th over firm going
  • Earned a 125 TF speed fig; broke a bit slowly, ran in the 2 path in mid-pack early on, was coaxed into moving up at the 5/16^ths pole, went 3w into the upper stretch and displayed a mild kick at the end but was unable to run down his stablemate
  • This performance was markedly superior to his 2019 debut in the 9F G3 Ft Marcy Stakes at BP back in May over soft going and it basically confirmed the notion that RB does his best running over firm going (a course condition he will most certainly experience on Saturday).
  • Furthermore, the effort demonstrated that RB is at his most dangerous racing at 10F and I believe that with a better break from the gates and trip (B&M got the jump on him when making his move to contend as the field turned into the stretch and RB found his path temporarily blocked at the 1/8^th pole before tipping out and by the time he did, B&M had gone on by and there was no catching him) that he could possibly turn the tables on his stablemate.
• Although Robert Bruce is rated as a closer by both Brisnet and TF, he does not run as one might think a prototypical closer might especially considering that his LP figs are not particularly strong (though he does have a rather powerful late kick). Rather, he tends to often position himself in mid-pack and is content to race from there.
  • The key for him to have a successful outing on Saturday and defend his Million title will be for his new jockey, Castellano, to give him a clean trip throughout and try and ensure that he is in the ideal position turning for home to be able to wind up and make a bid for the lead without running into traffic whilst at the same time getting a jump on his stablemate
  • The rail draw on Sat should help him save ground early and provided the leaders for the field drift off the rail turning for home, this could allow him to avoid having to tip out going into the stretch and instead shoot up along on the inside and blow past his rivals
• Brown: Past 3 Years, 46-90 Days Away: 27% win rate/61% ITM rate from 734 starts
• Castellano: Riding for Brown Past 60 Days: 24/71 from 63 mounts
  • 23/52 from 318 Turf Starts This Year
• RB put forth several solid 5F turf works over the lawn at Saratoga back at the end of July and appears to be in fine form coming into this race (I saw him on the track during morning works on Thursday and he appeared to be full of flesh and looked fantastic)
• Ultimatum: I think Robert Bruce certainly has the ability to pull off the upset against B&M and considering he has experience racing over the track at AP (something B&M) lacks, I believe he becomes the first back to back Arlington Million winner on Saturday. MY TOP SELECTION.

2. Magic Wand (Aidan O’Brien, Wayne Lordan) 4yo filly by Galileo, 5-1 ML

• Last Time Out: Pretty much eased up when finishing 11^th in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes at Ascot on 7/27 racing 12F over good to soft going
  • 1^st time cheek pieces, was clearly not up to the task and sealed her fate chasing the strong pace set by the leader; very poor overall effort
• Prior to that had placed 2^nd in back to back efforts (6/28: G1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh over good going at 10F and on 6/18 in the Wolferton Stakes when taking on the boys over a soft going racing at 10F at Ascot) Earned 112 & 111 TF speed figs for those efforts
• She has raced in the US 3x in her career (3^rd this year in the 11F G1 Man O’War Stakes on 5/11 at BP and then 2^nd behind Bricks & Mortar in the PWC Turf Invitational at GP on 1/26 going 9.5F over a yielding turf course)
• However, she has not won a race since last June when she bested Wild Illusion in the 12F G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot
• Magic Wand might be at her best racing right around 10F and it appears she has no issues whatsoever with varying degrees of give to the ground
• Magic Wand’s running style is incredibly unique. When one of her stablemates is present in a race to fulfill the role of pace-setter, this filly adopts a mid-pack to closing running style. However, in races where a “AOB rabbit” is not present, then Magic Wand prefers to be more forwardly positioned and her running style is more akin to that of a pace-presser/stalker
  • Now if her connections opt to race her in the Million over the Beverly D, then she certainly should benefit from the presence of her stablemate, Hunting Horn, who will likely serve as her rabbit as he has in past efforts both in the US and abroad.
  • The major question is exactly which sort of running style this filly will display in this race then. I believe that given the dearth of speed in this field (outside of HH, really only Bandua has any sort of tendency to display early speed), that Lordan will have MW forwardly positioned and racing as a hybrid pace-presser/stalker rather than a true mid-pack stalker. This tactic by Lordan will keep his charge close up to the pace and remain within striking distance of the leaders at all times so as to be able to get the first jump on her rivals when making a bid for the lead
• All in all, draw a line through Magic Wand’s last performance (she was taking on Enable after all); the cutback in distance should help her, although she is only getting 3 pounds from the boys in this field (compared to the 12 pounds she was spotted by B&M back in January). I am doubtful that she can pull off the upset in this race but would not be surprised whatsoever by her finishing in the money on Saturday. THIRD SELECTION

3. Bricks and Mortar (Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr) 5yo horse by Giant’s Causeway, 8/5 ML

• WON the G1 Manhattan Stakes back on June 8^th over 10F on firm going at BP
  • Earned a 127 TF speed fig; 3w mid-pack early on, coaxed into moving up at the 5/16^ths pole, angled 5w into the upper stretch, took command at the 1/8^th pole and edged clear to win by 1.5 lengths over stablemate RB
  • Effort was a very impressive performance for this 5yo as this was the furthest he had raced in his career and he easily bested a very solid field.
  • However, he did benefit from getting a moderate initial pace to run after (thanks to Bandua and Qurbaan), got the jump on his stablemate RB when making a bid to contend for the lead and encountered a clean trip throughout (whereas RB had a little difficulty with some traffic in the stretch)
  • On Saturday, B&M will now be racing on an unfamiliar track (where RB may have the advantage over him given his prior experience and win here in this race last year) and may encounter a less than ideal pace scenario with the presence of pretty much a lone speed in Hunting Horn
• B&M’s running style like that of Robert Bruce is atypical for a closer. He does not seem to be particularly pace-dependent and rather than run consistently at the rear of the field in each and every start, it appears that he can be positioned fairly close up to the pace and still display that good late closing kick of his (his TF LP fig of 114 is amongst the fastest in the field).
  • I would expect Ortiz to have him positioned at the fore-front of the mid-pack runners early on so as to be in the most ideal position to be able to strike the front when the opportunity presents itself. 
  • It also helps that he has a runner drawn on either side of him that will desire to be forwardly placed so securing running room early on should not be a major issue for him.
  • If he can pull off a similar trip to how he ran last time out (and get the jump once again on his stablemate), then I feel that he will be incredibly lethal in this race and will be near impossible to run down in the stretch
• Brown: Past 3 Years, Shipper: 28/61 from 694 
• Ortiz: Riding for Brown Over the Past 60 Days: 17/60 from 48
  • 22/58 from 483 in Turf Starts This Year
• B&M shows a series of very solid works throughout the end of July and into August (including one bullet work on 7/21 over 5F on the Saratoga turf) and he has looked absolutely incredibly here at Arlington in the morning
• Ultimatum: While I gave the narrowest of advantages to his stablemate Robert Bruce, I would not be shocked at all to see Bricks and Mortar continue his domination of turf races in the US this year and capture the Million on Saturday and basically solidify his claim to Horse of the Year honors at year’s end. SECOND SELECTION

4. Catcho en Die (Naipaul Chatterpaul, Sophie Doyle) 7yo gelding by Catcher in the Rye, 30-1 ML

• Well-beaten 11^th in the 11F G2 Bowling Green Stakes over firm going on the turf at Saratoga on July 27^th
  • Earned a 114 TF speed fig; let’s be blunt and just simply say that this was yet another poor performance for this horse who may be at the point in his career where retirement should be strongly considered
  • CeD has not won a race since winning the now defunct G3 Stars and Stripes going 12F over the firm AP turf last July and has not run in the money since finishing third via DQ in the Arlington Million last year
  • Since June of this year, CeD has been beaten by 8 or more lengths in each of his three starts contesting a series of G1 and G2 stakes on the turf at BP, Monmouth and Saratoga
• At one point in his career, Catcho en Die had displayed some good early speed and primarily raced as a pace-presser or stalker to good effect; however, this year while he has shown some early speed in several efforts, he has ended up tiring or fading by the time he hit the final turn and would have no impact whatsoever on the outcome of the race
  • Thus while it is entirely possible that Catcho en Die may flash some early speed, that will likely be brief, and I expect him to be completely out of the race by the time the fields enters the top of the stretch
  • Furthermore, the 2 week turnaround is very short for this gelding (although he tried the same move back in June) and I think it is theoretically possible that he has a worse outing than that effort in the Bowling Green
• Ultimatum: TOSS

5. Hunting Horn: (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 4yo colt by Camelot, 12-1 ML

• Well beaten 5^th behind Enable on July 27^th in the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth QIPCO Stakes at Ascot racing 12F over good to soft going
  • Earned 115 TF speed fig; wore cheek pieces for the first time, had the best race of the 4 Ballydoyle entrants and basically ran about as well as could be expected, was not employed as a pace-setter this time out, drawn inside of Enable and made progress to chase the initial leaders after the first 2F, briefly disputed 2^nd  at around 3F out, began to weaken at 2F out and was unable to hold onto 4^th in the final strides
  • Overall it was not one of HH’s best efforts, but his chances of holding on versus Enable were pretty much doomed from the get go after she set a blistering fast pace. Additionally, I do not believe that the distance or give in the ground helped his cause that day.
    • Although he returns to racing following just a short two week turnaround, he is a well-traveled horse and should be able to bounce right back. Moreover the cutback in distance and absence of basically any other rivals that possess similar early speed should be greatly in his favor on Saturday
• Hunting Horn’s primary running style is that of a pace setter with very good early speed and throughout his career he has primarily been employed as a pace-setter or rabbit for many of his Ballydoyle stablemates (especially Magical and Magic Wand)
  • Whilst Hunting Horn has not won in a very long time, quite possibly his best performance thus far in the US came back in May in the G1 Man O’ War Stakes at BP going 11F over a firm rated turf course. In that race, he rocketed out of the gates, set blazing early fractions, steadily built upon his lead and was only collared late in the deep stretch to finish 4^th beaten by just a length
  • If Hunting Horn can pull off a similar trip (a la similar to what Shining Copper tried to get away with in the 2015 edition of this race), then it is theoretically possible that he could take this field in gate to wire fashion (the cutback in distance from the 11F of that effort to 10F on Sat certainly helps his chances)
  • However I would not be surprised to see the two CB contenders run him down in the deep stretch and force him to settle for a minor award.
• Hunting Horn does have experience over this track and at this distance here at AP as he ran in last year’s edition of the Secretariat and he does receive a major rider upgrade as Moore will be in the irons for the first time since Feb
• Ultimatum: In my mind, I do not believe that Hunting Horn can pull off the near impossible feat of besting both of the monsters coming out of Brown’s barn but it would not surprise me at all to see him still in contention in the deep stretch in this race. Therefore, I would consider him as a Live Longshot in this race with an extremely small chance of upsetting this race but still warranting enough consideration to use in all underneath spots in exotics.

6. The Great Day (Arnaud Delacour, Trevor McCarthy) 5yo horse by Harlan’s Holiday, 12-1 ML

• 2^nd beaten by nearly 2 lengths back on July 13^th in the G3 Arlington Handicap racing 9.5F over the firm turf at AP
  • Earned a career best 122 TF speed fig; raced in the two path in the first turn, then gradually shifted out to the three path in the second turn whilst remaining in mid-pack throughout, loomed at the ¼ pole, and improved position within the final furlong but made no impression upon the leader
  • This was a decent performance for a horse in just his second US turf start and first against graded stakes company after having begun his career racing in his native Argentina
  • The Great Day’s overall effort suggests that he should appreciate the slight increase in distance (although he is likely to encounter an even more unfavorable pace scenario on Sat).
  • His overall speed figs though are a few notches below those of the main contenders in this field
• The Great Day’s primary running style is that of a closer with modest LP figures and not a particularly strong late kick
  • The TF PP suggests that TGD will be towards the rear of the field early on (not exactly an ideal position given the composition of this field) and will have to make up ground late in order to get by many of his rivals
• Delacour: Past 3 Years, 3^rd off the layoff: 29/61 from 72 starts
• McCarthy: Turf Races This Year: 24/61 from 177.
• Ultimatum: TOSS. With the expected pace scenario for this race and given the fact that The Great Day is expected to make the step up in class from G3 to G1 company, I am not particularly high on his chances of running well on Sat.

7. Pivoine (Andrew Balding, Silvestre De Sousa) 5yo gelding by Redoute’s Choice, 15-1 ML

• WON the Class 2 John Smiths Diamond Jubilee Cup Handicap Stakes at York on July 13^th going 10.5F over good to firm rated going
  • Earned 117 TF speed fig; quite possibly the best performance of his career (he has shown a real affinity for racing at this track and distance) as he cut back from a complete non-effort going 12F in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes in June at Ascot; he looked comfortable throughout the entire race, remained in contact with the leaders whilst at the fore-front of the mid-division, once he got to the front in the final furlong of the race, he easily powered home to win.
  • The 10F distance of the Million should present no issue for him (although he has won just once in 5 tries at 1 ¼ miles).
  • The more pressing matter is that over the course of his career, Pivoine has yet to step up in class beyond the Handicap level over in Britain and thus this race presents a massive challenge for him as he will taking on extremely experienced and seasoned stakes company foes for the first time in career
• Pivoine’s preferred running style appears to be that of a hybrid pace-presser/stalker who may be most comfortable tracking the leaders from mid-pack in this race
  • Although De Sousa has prior experience riding Pivoine, he has yet to ride at AP so the unfamiliarity with the turf course here could create even more potential issues for this longshot
• Ultimatum: TOSS. This appears to be just way too tough an ask for Pivoine to even be remotely competitive on Sat. While it is always nice to see the European trainers send over their runners each and every year to race on Arlington Million Day, a softer landing spot for this five year old might have been a better choice.

8. Captivating Moon (Chris Block, Jose Valdivia Jr) 4yo colt by Malibu Moon, 20-1 ML

• Ran a valiant 3^rd last time out in the G3 Arlington Handicap going 9.5F over the firm AP turf on July 13^th when making his 2019 debut following a 287 day layoff
  • Earned a 119 TF speed fig (a career best); raced well off the pace early on (15 lengths initially), began moving up at the 3/8ths pole, was running in the 4 path throughout the final turn and made a bold rally late to get up for third
  • All in all this was a very solid performance for this colt especially considering it was his seasonal debut following a ridiculously long layoff and he came flying late from the clouds to get up late to hit the board once again
• Whilst Captivating Moon is a multi- graded stakes placed horse (at the G2 and G3 levels), he has yet to win a stakes race of any order over the course of his career and thus defeating this field will be a tall order (though conceivably another placing would not be out of the question)
• CM has attempted this distance just twice in his career and finished off the board in last year’s Secretariat and then going 10.5F at Kentucky Downs ran third behind Channel Cat and Cullum Road in the $400K Dueling Grounds Derby
• As previously mentioned, Captivating Moon is a drop from the clouds late running closer with incredibly late speed (his 120 TF LP fig is the fastest amongst the entire field)
  • The major concern for him in this race given his running style is the dearth of proven early speed, outside of Hunting Horn, which unless HH decides to pull a repeat performance of his Man O’ War effort and set a blistering pace, then the pace of this race could be fairly pedestrian and thus would compromise his late kick to some extent
    • Although his experience in his most recent start encountering a similar situation perhaps might be a valuable lesson and given the addition of one of Arlington’s leading riders in Valdivia, it is possible that he may not have to close from as far back as last time out
• Captivating Moon put forth a very strong 5F work on August 3^rd over the AP Polytrack and thus should be in good form coming into this race (he certainly appeared to be in fine spirits and looked fit Friday morning when strolling over the Polytrack during morning works).
• Ultimatum: This is rather tough ask for him in this spot though I would be far from surprised to see Captivating Moon unleashing another of his patented late closing kicks down the stretch to hit the board for a small share in this race. Thus I would recommend using him underneath to help fill out exotics.

9. Intellogent: (Fabrice Chappet, Florent Geroux) 4yo colt by Intello, 12-1 ML

• Finished a credible 4^th beaten less than 2 lengths in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp back on May 26^th racing 9F over good to soft going
  • Earned a career best 117 TF speed fig; was held up in the final pair early on, dropped to the rear of the field after 3F and then was pushed along to move up just over 2F out, responded well, continued to progress from over 1F out, and then picked up well inside the final furlong whilst racing primarily on the stands-side of his rival to secure 4^th
  • There are several concerns about that performance by Intellogent:
    • Although this colt has been competing primarily against G1 company in France throughout the course of his career to varying degrees of success, this spot does seem like a bit of a tough ask for him, especially considering the layoff of over 2 months
    • Furthermore, his running style, which is similar to that of Captivating Moon as extremely deep closer with an excellent late kick, does not appear to be well-suited given the pace scenario for this race
    • Finally, the winner of Intellogent’s last race, Zabeel Prince, has not raced back to that form having been badly beaten in his last three starts (although granted he was bested by the likes of Enable, Crystal Ocean and Too Darn Hot)
• During the course of this week, Intellogent initially looked quite keyed up and ready to explode when working out on the Polytrack at AP; however since his initial couple of forays onto the track, he has calmed down quite well and has exuded a sense of professionalism.
• The 10F distance on Sat should not present any issues whatsoever for this colt and the addition of a rider in Florent Geroux who knows a thing or two about winning at this track on big days (he famously won the 2015 edition of this race aboard the IL-bred The Pizza Man) certainly boosts his chances of at least being competitive against this field
• Geroux: Riding on Turf This Year: 20/43 from 229 starts
• Ultimatum: Although I am somewhat tempted to toss this horse, given that he has better back class than the horse drawn to his inside in Captivating Moon, I would not begrudge anyone considering using this colt underneath in their exotic wagers, especially if he goes off at or around his ML odds.

10. Bandua: (Jack Sisterson, Adam Beschizza) 4yo colt by The Factor, 6-1 ML

• WON the 9.5F G3 Arlington Handicap over a firm rated turf course at AP on July 13^th and in doing so set a course record for the distance
  • Nearly equaled his career best speed fig as he earned a 125 TF speed fig for that effort; without a doubt experienced a major bit of class relief in that race as previously he had squared off against Bricks & Mortar in the Manhattan whilst serving as the initial pace-setter for that race; this time out, Bandua was content to let another rival go on and set the initial fractions whilst he stalked from just off of the pace, he ran in the 3 path in the final turn, and with an impressive burst of speed drew clear by the 1/8^th pole and held on for the win
  • I believe that not only did the class relief play a major factor in his win last month but also the slight cut back in distance certainly aided Bandua’s performance that day
    • Now Bandua has to step back up in class once again and stretch out to 10F whilst squaring off against familiar foes in B&M and RB
    • Although Bandua has finished ITM 3 of 4 times (including 2 wins) at this distance, there is part of me that believes that perhaps 10F might be testing the limits of his abilities and could be the deciding factor as to whether or not he stands any chance of finishing in the money on Sat
• Bandua has shown excellent versatility throughout his career with regards to his running style: he has served as a pace-setter, a pace-presser and a stalker in multiple route attempts this year on both the dirt and turf
  • Now the TF Pace Projector has suggested that Bandua will be loose on the lead n this race given his superior EP figures. However, I completely disagree with this notion as I doubt this situation would ever play out except in the instance that Hunting Horn breaks poorly from the gates. Rather it is much more likely that Bandua will be forced into a pace-pressing role on Saturday w/ Beschizza aboard and will have to try his best to hold on late and not only pass by Hunting Horn but also hold off the two Brown contenders
• Sisterson: Past 3 Years, Graded Stakes: 21/37 from 19 starts with a $4.42 ROI
• Bandua also has posted two very sharp works both going four furlongs (one over the turf course at Keeneland and the other on Keeneland’s dirt track) at the end of July and in the first week in August
• Ultimatum: It would likely require an extraordinary effort by Bandua to turn the tables on both Bricks and Mortar and Robert Bruce and exact revenge for his defeat in the Manhattan; however, with the right trip and a smart ride from Beschizza it would not be out of the question to see this son of The Factor finish in the money on Saturday at a solid price. Thus I would recommend using him as a live longshot underneath in this race.