Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Thursday, November 14, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Here I am pinch hitting for my friend Ed Piluso, in a Thursday card with nine races. Lets go quickly to the comments:

1st race: Md Claiming  $25,000 for three year olds and upward. One mile (Dirt)

3-6-7

Final Say (3) returns to the one turn configuration on the main track, in which he has performed better. Has three works in preparation and Carmouche stays over him. Yankee Division (6) has only three races lifetime, and at least has shown some improvement with each race. He has experience at a route distance, another plus. Sneads (7) goes first time for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, and he puts blinkers on him. Should be the favorite by what he has done in the track, which is not much. 

2nd race: Claiming $35,000 NW3L. Fillies and Mares, three year old and upward. 6 Furlongs (Outer Turf)

10-6-8

Stonefactor (10) has a big edge pace wise. I don’t see anyone that can follow her on that first flight, and Joel Rosario, the master of the turf sprints, acquires the mount. Will be a very tough beat.  Merlins Muse  (6) should be following my top pick two or three lengths behind her and if Stonefactor falters, she should have first aim at her. Johnny V. still on her irons. Linda’s Ballet (8) returns to sprinting on the grass, which has proven to be her best trip. Irad rides her for the first time, so we can expect some kind of improvement over her current form, which isn’t bad at all.

3rd race: MSW. For two year old fillies. 7 furlongs (Dirt)

2-7-3

This race should be controlled by the top two morning line choices that have shown some talent above what we see on the rest of the field. I will go with Water White (2) as my favorite, that has faced some pretty nice fillies on her two races. Rudy Rodriguez puts blinkers on her and Irad keeps going to the pond. Lake Avenue (7) is probably the fastest in here and goes second time out for Bill Mott. Just fired a bullet in preparation and if she is let loose easily, she will take them wire to wire. Kansas Kis (3) should run better as the distances increase, and the seven furlongs should make her late run much more effective. Has been stuck inside in her two previous races, now has a better post. 

4th race: MSW. For Two Year olds. 1 1/16 Mile (Inner Turf)

1-10-8

This race looks wide open, with the morning line favorites having some questions to answer. Legend of Bam (1) wanted to go in the turf since his debut and finally got his wish granted in his most recent. The problem is that the turf apparently was not of his liking. The question is why his connections do not drop him from such lousy efforts, and now get Irad to ride. Seems to me they are still hoping for a good performance on the grass. Danzing Dunhill (10) and Justintimeforwine (8) will provide the early zip in this race, with the Weaver trainee having the advantage of knowing how to rate more effectively. 

5th race: Claiming $16,000. Fillies and Mares, three year old and upward. One Mile (Dirt)

6-4-1

This is another race that looks to be controlled by two horses. Viradia (6) has the speed and ships from Delaware Park to run in this very soft $16,000 claimer. Joel Rosario has the assignment and looks to be a very hard beat. Stay Fond (4) also takes a plunge in class and returns to the one turn configuration, definitely her favorite. Manny Franco has had the best results with her and will ride for trainer Linda Rice. Cotton Candy Cutie (1) hasn’t win in a long time, but her aces are good enough to consider her part of the trio. Should be right behind Viradia on that early flight. 

6th race: OC 40K/NW2X. For Fillies and Mares, three year old and upward. 6 Furlongs (Outer Turf)

10-4-7

Puzzling race to handicap. High Jingo (10) will try to go to the lead, if not, Irad will sit right off the pace and that outside post will work wonders for her. A Little Faith (4) is inexperienced, but has proven he belongs to this group and still hasn’t reached her ceiling. Johnny Velazquez keeps the mount, a positive sign. Hannah’s Smile (7) returns from a long layoff working constantly for Michelle Nevin. She is a distance specialist, so if she comes back good, she can be dangerous. 

7th race: Claiming $40,000 NW2L. For three year old and upward. One Mile (Dirt)

9-6-5

Soul Fight (9) can be the beneficiary of a hot pace that probable develops in this race. Joel Rosario is as hot as anyone in the last week and the horse comes back to one turn, configuration in which he had his only win. Hasn’t ever faced no winners of two. Hizaam (6) drops for a claiming tag for the first time for trainer Chad Brown (42% for the year), and he should have first jump on the dueling leaders. Castellano acquires the mount ands should be in a very cozy garden spot from the start. The big upset in here can be Violent Delights (5). If we draw a line over that last race, he is as capable as any participant in here, and the mount by Carroll will maintain his price attractive. 

8th race: Allowance $75,000N1X. For three year old and upward. One Mile (Inner Turf)

6-8-2

Spirit Animal (6) ran last year against horses way better than these. Names like Forty Under, Casa Creed, Somelikeithotbrown and others pop up when studying his PPs, so is an important drop in class he is experimenting. Race should set up fine for closers, and in my opinion, he is the most tested one so far. Everyonelovesjames (8) is also running vs better turfers and if he is able to dictate a reasonable pace, he will be dangerous, with Joekl Rosario up.  Conviction Trade (2) showed good talent in winning his debut, although it was in a group of much lesser quality than this one.  He will need to step it up a notch, but I think the talent is there.    

9th race: Maiden Claiming $40,000. For three year old and upward. Six furlongs (Outer Turf)

10-2-4A handicapping headache to conclude the afternoon. Alphalfa (10) cuts back from seven to six panels and Jose Ortiz picks up the mount once again for main client Linda Rice. He will come from mid pack with his late run. Exchange Fever (2) seems to be the speed of the speed. Unfortunately for him, he drew an inside post, but Irad will try to clear from there, lets se how far he takes them. Watch out for Plebe (4), forgotten in the ML at 12-1, but as close as in June, he has a race that iof he repeats it, he will be a force to be reckoned with.    

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