I hope you were able to follow me on twitter yesterday as we were smoking. Hopefully we can keep up the good times. I will also be going to Aqueduct tomorrow, so feel free to say hi. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 5 / 1,9 / 1,3,4,5,6 / 8 / 5 = $5 (Many Many Times)
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 1,5 / 1,9 / ALL / 2,4,5,8 / 5 = $48
Race 1- 5-1
#5- Where’s Rudy- I’ll be honest, I tried to find a way to beat this horse who looks vulnerable. I mean Rudy could not have liked this horse that much since anyone could have bought him for 20k first time out, and 40k 2nd time out. However, the 5F bullet he turned in on March 12th tells me that he might have a live one here. Rudy “tell” is when he runs a strong 5F workout. He normally likes to have slow works. A repeat of his last makes him a winner.
#1- Expert- This Linda Rice jail move looks very live and likely to win if my top pick bounces off his last win. There is a ton of speed signed on in this race so Rajiv might trip out with a stalking trip from the rail.
Race 2- 9-1-3
#9- Fitzwillie- I love looking for prices with these bottom level Maiden Claiming races. This one seems to fit the bill. First time out, he received a lot of money at the windows despite being a firster for Zito. He was taken out of the race at the gate and had no shot. 2nd time out was sprinting in the mud so I can throw a line through the race. He also lost to a next out winner that day. This 550k purchase may not run a step, but I am willing to give him one more chance since he is a Bob Barker (The price is right).
#1- Our Honor- This horse is your likely winner but hard to endorse at a short price. I normally stay away from Linda Rice horses when she drops them in class. This one especially raises some red flags. They include:
- Dropping in class first off the claim
- Has not run since last August
- Failed favorite at the 30k level
- Linda Rice has very poor numbers off long layoffs
#3- Seediskid – he has never had a clean break and has improved since going into the Dharamjit barn. If he breaks clean he might improve with the upgrade in jockey.
Race 3- 6-1-4
#6- Durkin’s Call- I will admit that I do not have a great read on this race. I think the favorite is vulnerable since there is not much that separates the main contenders. I will make this my top pick going into the Mott barn. I think the Mile Master will be in the perfect stalking spot with the perfect post. He did lose to the morning line favorite last year but has improved since.
#1- Captain Frost- This horse might be overmatched but I Dylan Davis has a knack for making noise with these types. Linda Rice has already done well with this 4500 dollar purchase and I like when she gets aggressive with her horses. It is also worth noting that the horse who ran 3rd to him last time out, came back to win impressively on Saturday.
#4- Pipes- He is your morning line favorite after finishing 2nd to Not That Brady in a 102k stakes race. He went off 8/1 that day and now will be 8/5. These are not my types, especially since his best races have come with a little moisture in the track. Include but buyer beware.
Race 4- 8-5-2
#8- Stilts – I really like this horse and will be singling him on some of my Pick 5 tickets. He is nominated for the Triple Crown races and has run into a few tough horses in his 4 career races. I love when horses go back to their original distance/surface as this horse cuts back to 7 Furlongs. I think this horse is sitting on a big race.
#5- War Tocsin- He has run two decent races and I love the early breeding of Violence. First time out I can forgive after drawing the rail first time out which can be nearly impossible to win from. 2nd time out he bobbled at the gate and that took enough out of him to quit late. He can be very dangerous with a clean trip.
#2- Tri Saint Lorenzo- He took some money first time out and ran a decent 4th despite getting bumped at the start. He might be overlooked coming from a 6% barn with a 0 for 17 jockey.
Race 5- 5-4
#5- Smiles From Sadie- By far the fastest horse in the race and despite her bout of seconditis, she might have found the right field. No excuses here.
#4- Dancingwthdaffodls- Just because we like a 1/5 shot on top, does not mean we can find value underneath. I will be keying this horse, along with #2, underneath.
Race 6- 3-10-7
#3- Deputy Flag- It is worth noting that this race is for 3YO and up. Hopefully some of you have read my data on these types of races and what I look for. He should be loose on the lead and the slight cutback will help get him home. Unless one of the firsters can run, here is your winner.
#10- Light The Posse- Willing to excuse his last which came in the mud off a layoff. It is encouraging to see them wheel him back in only 5 weeks.
#7- Preston Court- My boy Luzzi (did I really say that), scored for me on Saturday so let’s see if he can get this one ITM. John Morrison has decent numbers with 2nd time runners. He took some money first time out and I have seen worse 6-1 shots.
Race 7- 1
#1- Le Cat Warrior- I can’t see who can beat him even with Worrie on board. No Worrie, he should be your Le Single.
Race 8- 5-9-6
#5- Ready To Escape- I am actually upset with myself for making this pick but I just can’t see past him. He has never been out of the money and is getting better each time out. He loves this track and as long as he doesn’t bounce he is your winner.
#9- Candid Desire- I almost pulled the trigger on this price horse who has been a popular item at the claiming box. He rarely runs a bad race on a fast track and this might be the easiest company he has found in awhile. My only big knock is the 0 for 12 record on this track.
#6- Morning Breez- For some reason I was surprised to see this horse had only won 2 races before. He has been a good check earner and might run a big races after getting some rest.
Race 9- 3
If I can make it this far, I will be singling this 5-1 shot. The bet is more a huge play against the chalk in this race. #7 First Forever is dropping for Linda Rice after losing as the chalk in both her career races. When Linda drops her horses, so should you. #9 Midnitesalright will be another horse that is over played. She has had no excuse the past few races and failed at short prices. This includes a time period where Servis was winning with everything and still couldn’t get this one home. My pick 4 and pick 5 tickets will have the #3 singled with the hopes that Englehart can improve this horse. I will also have a couple of tickets with the All button as this races is ripe for a huge price.
#10-