1-2-4 – Some of the worst horses in training at New York compete in the opener. The entry seems like a good alternative, just for being two for the price of one. Carnegie Song had some trouble in his debut and Kendrick Carmouche is the best jockey riding in this race, and Legend of Bam seems to be te fastest out of the blocks, and in such a bad group, we won’t see any big late runs. Honorable Avenue drops from MSW in Finger Lakes to maiden claimers at Aqueduct. Its looks more like a lateral move than a drop, but the cutback in distance should help. Cray Cray ran poorly last time out, but his debut wasn’t that bad and acquires the mount of the very hot Eric Cancel. It will not be a bad idea to buy this race in the horizontal plays.
4-5-2 – Cover Photo goes second time for trainer Brad Cox, now sporting blinkers for the first time. Cox secures Lezcano for the ride and the drop in class should help her. Miss Mi Mi should be stalking the pace from that near outside post and trainer Gary Gullo ships very effectively, at a 23% clip. Nisha completes the selection, maybe she is the fastest of this bunch and if she is let go easily, she can take them wire to wire.
4-3-1 – Hostile Witness ran just a week ago, cutting back from running a mile to these six furlongs, which should suit him better. Reylu Gutierrez stays on for the ride and will be part of that early flight. Trainer Rudy Rodriguez takes the shades off. Victory Boulevard changed barns in his most recent and has two bullet works in preparation for this contest. Don’t like at all that he has been bet heavily in both of his races and has failed to deliver. Eric Cancel rides for the first time. Grito de Pablito showed marked improvement in his last effort, and the fact that Junior Alvarado sticks with him is interesting. Rob Atras hits at a 30% clip 2nd off the layoff.
2-7-1 – Elegant Rose has a distinct advantage in speed and Carmouche will send her to the front, looking to wire this field. Working great for her return from a two and a half month rest, the six furlongs should be right for her. Dirty Bird returns to a sprint distance, which I think are better suited for her. The cutback from a mile is perfect and the outside post is a definite improvement. Cadeaux de Paix completes my selection. She won last time out in a NW of 2 and seems to be in the best form of her life.
10-6-3 – Soul Fight flunked in a sloppy surface last time out. I expect a drier track today, hence a much better performance from this colt, helped also with the sharp drop in class that he will experiment. Later Cat had to do all the dirty work for his entry mate in his last, now is all by himself and Lezcano will look to come from near the lead for his late run. Mommouth Dr is another one that was terrible in his most recent, but that was two months ago and in a much better group. Now faces lighter competition and he should be part of that early flight. Dylan Davis sticks with him.
6-1-3 – Conquistador has been running against very good horses in Woodbine and, before that, in Churchill and the Fair Grounds. I think he is catching the easiest group he is faced, and is working lights out for his return from a five month break. The outside post benefits him and will be staking the early leaders from the start. New Frontier should be the favorite, but he is 0 for 10 already and has burned some money along the way. Let’s see what Manny Franco can do with him, he has had a very cold meeting so far. Tri San Lorenzo showed some talent last year in his first two races, now returns from an eight month stay in the shelf. He maybe needs this one for tightening up his condition, and the six furlongs can be short for his style.
5-2-3 – Vorticity is lightning fast, and against this bunch, that is his biggest advantage. The mile distance is a question mark without a doubt, but I prefer to take a risk on a speedster rather than with a come from behind horse. Expect a jockey change on this horse, Correa got hurt yesterday. Haikal is the class of the field by a lot. He is a Grade III winner and competed against quality horses last year. Maybe needs one to be in tip top shape, but his class can make him overcome the layoff. Multiplier is definitely the best of the rest, he has been running primarily on the grass, but has some good efforts on the main track and Lezcano has been winning races by tandem.
5-6-3 – Truth Hurts looked very good in winning his debut after having some problems at the beginning. Now gets more ground to work with, which I think can only help his cause. Autonomous failed as the less than even money choice last time out in a stakes race, without an excuse. Now drops to a more suitable level and should be dictating the pace from the gitgo. Franco takes the call for Chad Brown. Quality Heat has been running primarily on the grass, but last time out he stayed on the main strip after they took a stakes race from the turf, and ran ok. Connections must have been happy with his performance that makes them want to try a drier main track today. Watch out for him.
2-4-6 – The best races for Vineyard Sound have been on the main track, and this is the first time he will go in a race programmed for the dirt from the beginning. With Lezcano on the saddle he will stalk the early speed and pounce from mid race on. Looks very solid to me. Justice of War failed as the favorite in August, now comes back five months later under Linda Rice’s training. That alone makes him a contender, but its hard to rely on him, with only one race since May. Works have been solid,not flashy. State of Mind is one of the few in here with some upside potential, with just three races lifetime. It’s a good sign that Franco stays aboard him, and with some further improvement, he can spring the upset.