Super Sunday is upon us. Not the greatest card early but we will take some chances later on. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 2-3
It looks like a chalky opener to Super Sunday. These two and no more should get you out of the first leg of the Pick 5. My top choice will be #2 Pecan Pattie. Danny Gargan is having a great meet and I expect a big race out of this newly 4yo filly. She had a year layoff and was able to trounce the field by 10 lengths. She followed that up with an impressive 2nd place finish behind a future Stakes winner in Sara Smile. Manny Franco is smart enough not to let the #3 New Year’s Wish just walk around the track. However in the event that they let the Mile Master walk around the track, this Linda Rice trainer is capable of going wire to wire.
Race 2- 3-1-2
This looks like a race where I either take a chance and single #3 Stole E or I hit the “all” button. They thought enough of Stole E to try him out in two stake races, albeit on the turf. He will attempt his first try as a 3yo on the dirt and adds the blinkers. #1 Running Violence is going out for Charlton Baker on a jail move. This is not the strongest of jail moves going from the “Ass-man” barn but Assmussen doesn’t always have them ready first time out. I expect this one to flash speed from the rail which is something that is lacking on paper from the horses who have already ran. #2- Brees Bayou will go first time out on Super Sunday. Likely to look good but come up short in the end (too soon?).
Race 3- 1-6-7
#1- For Pops- Let’s try to break the toteboard in race 3 with this 15-1 ML shot. I am digging really deep here but I really think this one has a shot to win the race and at minimum catch a piece underneath. I will be wheeling this horse up and down. Truthfully, my only concern is that the other speed, Blue Belt might put this one into submission and open it up for his uncoupled entry mate. Still let’s take a look at the positives. First, they are jumping this horse up twice in price off a loss. That is a huge angle, even for this low percentage outfit. His form is also extremely dirtied up since he does not like a wet track. He has only ran twice on a fast track since March 9th. Those two races he had excuses; one he had no shot after bobbling out of the gate. The second time he broke on top but was battled on the front end. There are plenty of excuses to strike a line through going back to 2017; but this is why he is 15-1 and why he has a shot despite no one noticing.
#6- Blue Belt is your most likely winner and is another who hates moisture on the track. Look for this one to sit right off my top pick and try to get first jump before his entry mate makes a big sweeping move.
#7- Sol The Freud is a former 9-1 Jail move winner for me and a horse who likes to catch a piece; especially at this fast oval. Must respect underneath.
Race 4- 9-8-2
#9- Kid is Frosty will be the overbet chalk but likely winner after moving into the Brad Cox barn. Shippers have done very well at this meet and I think it is interesting that they are bringing the NY bred to Ozone Park from Remington. They must believe that this one can compete with the tougher competition and bigger purses.
#8- Wadidli Princess- Raise your hand if you had the over 10% winners for jockey Hernandez. Not me but he has been riding well and gets another shot after just missing last time out. Look for my top two picks to sit off of #4 Winifred J and the one to make the right move and the right time will be your likely winner.
#2- Harley Q- The only horse in the field to come 2nd to a future Breeders Cup winner. They have given this one some time off before beginning her 3yo campaign and has been training steadily. It is very interesting that they brought the Parx jockey up to ride him. Do not ignore.
Race 5- 3-1
If we are alive in the Pick 5 entering this race these two should get us to cash. #3 Take Me to Hardoon gets back to sprinting which is what he likes most. Any one of his previous sprint races beats this group. #1 Stonesintheroad was a winner for us 1st time out. The daughter of Bustin Stones is a speedy type that will try to take them wire to wire.
Race 6- 1-4-10
This race is screaming longshot to me. I took a stab at the jockey who is most likely to bring in a nice price. To be honest this is an extremely bad group. It might come down to who gets the lead first.
Race 7- 6-2-1
#6- Unsullied showed some speed out of nowhere last time out and only lost by a length to Big Muddy. He not gets a jockey upgrade to Dylan Davis and with the slight cutback can make some noise. It is interesting Davis chose to ride this one over the ML favorite.
#2- Lutheran Rags is a horse for course type as evident by his 6 for 7 ITM at Aqueduct. His last two races you can strike a line through; one coming on the green and one going two turns. This 7f trip is just what this plodder wants. Hard to trust this favorite off the long layoff and losing his go to jock.
#1- Mister Humor- Another out of town invader who can make some noise. Does he need moisture in the track? Does he need less distance? A few question marks but not out of the running.
Race 8- 1-9
One of my favorite handicapping angles is when a maiden tries stakes company. That is what we have with #1 Always Shopping. He will need to show a little more early speed but she will be able to save all the ground going two turns and I think has a real shot to upset this tough field.
#9- Filly Joel- Despite popular belief, the more speed a horse has in these long routes the better. Expect Lezcano to send to the lead. If #11 Miss Marilyn goes for the lead, then Lezcano will probably concede and sit right off him going 2-wide around the track. That might cost him. If he fights for the lead, that will definitely cost him. This might be the difference in the race is what Lezcano will do if Alvarado sends from the outside. If they go 49 at the half, our top pick will be flying late.
Race 9- 4-5-7
#4- Shamrocked will be our price play to end the day. It has been tough to get this one on the track but when he has raced he has been competitive each time. Last time out, he lost to a next out winner. Prior to that, he also lost to Mesotherm. Trainer Raymond Handal has done a great job with this 16k claimer and if he is not a scratch, look for him to have a legit shot at a huge price.
#5- American Power cost us some big cheddar after just missing last time out. It is a good sign that Linda Rice is not dropping him and is the horse to beat.
#7- Missle Bomb- He has been a money burner of late but always cashes a check. No reason to think otherwise again and has never been out of the money at this distance.