If you followed along last two weeks then you definitely had some fun and made some money. Pay close attention to the track as it has been a golden rail the past couple of weeks. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 play – 2 / 2,3,6 / 1,2,3 / 1 / 3,5,6 = $13.50
Aggressive Pick 5 play- 2,5 / 2,3,4,6 / ALL / 1,3 / 3,5,6 = $144
Race 1- 2-5-6
#2 Restructure looks like a single here to start off the card. He has the inside speed on a track that has been very favorable to inside speed. It is also worth noting that trainer Clement has long been known for doing his best work going 2nd off a long layoff. The only red flag is the cutback in distance. Hopefully he still shows the early speed with two less furlongs to deal with. #5 Starry Rose is the only other horse that has a shot in my opinion. Last time out Alvarado sent hard with the outside post but was forced 4-wide in a 6 horse field. If the 2 does not break sharply, then here is the horse most likely to take the lead and the advantage.
Race 2- 2-6-3
#2- Rogue Nation should be the one in the lead after the first quarter and that might be the difference in this field. Last time out this 4yo gelding got bumped at the start and lost all chance. It is interesting to note that jockey Hector Diaz is 0 for 73 at this meet with trainers not named Rodriguez; but is 4 for 10 with Rudy. #6 Special Story is a jail move but with a lateral trainer switch. Still the near 50% hike in price shows confidence and would upgrade if the track is playing fair after race 1. He has hit the board in nearly half his career races, so he likes to cash checks but seems to be allergic to the winners circle. #3 Discreet Mission comes in off the long layoff and is capable of firing for John Kimmel and the mile master if ready.
Race 3- 1-3-2
#1 Spectator Sport will be my tepid top pick in a race where I might hit the “all” button. He will be going first time out for Rob Atras who has been winning with just about everything he sends to the track. This 2nd time runner did very little running early last time out but really started to pick things up late. If he can show more early speed with the addition of blinkers, 4-1 might be a steal. #3 Gallant Bid goes first time out for Linda Rice. Usually Rice runners need a race but it is interesting that she scratched on Friday to run in this spot. There appear to no “monsters” in this race so it is possible that this firster can win. #2- Will Dancer appears to be the horse to beat but will be up against it if the track is still playing the same. He will be a heavy favorite and this is the spot where we can really get value if this dropper were to falter.
Race 4- 1 Entry – 3- 6
The Repole entry looks tough in this spot and can work with one another considering the different styles. Expect Blewitt to fire right out of the gate and I hope that he gets the lead. If #3 Carthon inherits the lead, then look for Blewitt to try to soften him up for his entry mate. #6 Blugrascat’s Smile has hit the exact in 16 of his lifetime 27 races on a fast track. Must respect on a fair track but has little chance if speed is still king.
Race 5- 3-5-6
I rarely like Rudy firsters but #3 Neper is an expensive purchase for this barn and has been training lights out. It is worth noting that Rudy does not like to have fast workouts in the AM, but this son of Uncle Mo has put together 2 bullets including a 5F workout which is his bread and butter. If he takes early money, watch out. #5 The Big Lebanese has been knocking at the door is it is only a matter of time before he graduates. This will be his first dry track and it is possible he improves on this surface. #6 Top of the Mint ran an impressive race last time out after getting shut off on a big closing move. You can expect a big improvement 2nd time out from this horse.
Race 6- 3-7-6
#1- Oh K Funnybone- Brown and Luzzi? No thanks
#2- Brother Tez- Horse has no early speed and his lone win was on the wet stuff. If he takes early money, then watch out. These shippers can hit and the board will usually tell you which ones.
#3- Thesis- Adds blinkers and comes in well rested off a private purchase. He is the only horse in the field that can claim that he won at the MSW ranks.
#4- Mend Up- Has no early speed and his only win came on an off track. Looks like a bad chalk
#5- Power Source- Has some early speed which this field lacks and would be my top choice if it wasn’t for Bruce Brown.
#6- D Emcee- Another with little to no early speed and has no shot on a bias track. If the track is fair, he is by far the horse to beat
#7- Mac’s Revolution- The price will be right and there is a shot he can clear from the outside post. If he clears I think he can win.
Race 7- 6-1-2
#6- Stoney Bennett- He is the only horse in the field with speed and is capable of wiring the field at a nice price. He gets a huge upgrade in jockey and looks to be in the best form of his career. Worth the shot.
#1- Honor Up- On a fair track he will be tough to beat. He loves this track but only has one fast track victory. If there is a time to bet against him, it is in this spot.
#2- Syndergaard- Thor looks to be in top form, loves this track and might be better with extra distance.
Race 8- 4-1-2