It looks like value will be a rarity today. Take what they give you and make it count. Feel free to check my twitter handle @jailmovemaster for updated picks and analysis once scratches are announced and in case we do not have a fast and firm track.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 Play- 1,2,3 / 2 / Entry / Entry / ALL = $13.50
Aggressive Pick 5 Play – 1,2,3 / 2,6,7 / Entry / Entry, 4 / ALL = $81
Race 1- 2-3-1
#2- Mom I Forgive You- We will make this Brad Cox 2nd time starter the tepid top pick over the other two main contenders. The breeding suggest a win early pedigree as evident by the dam having 4 starters. Three of those starters won as 2yos including one Stakes winner. First time out she ran a competitive 2nd and looks prime to win here.
#3- I’m Guilty- As I mentioned at the beginning of this meet, Rudy looked like he was about to start winning consistently and he appears to be on fire right now. This 2nd time starter has not been seen since October but the damn has 7 winners from 9 starters including two Stakes winners. One of my favorite angles is when a horse runs for many times more than the sire fee. The plus is that they bought this daughter of Verrazano for 260k which is about 15x the sire fee. The red flag is they are quickly making her available for the tag today.
#1- Excess Capacity- The connections will assure that this horse go off as your favorite. Chad Brown’s numbers dropping from the MSW ranks is legendary but I am not sure this horse can run.
Race 2- 2-7-6
#2- Wheresthebarber- Today is going to be a day of take what they give you. This drop down for Jason Servis looks a lot like Lady Bergen who romped on Saturday at short odds. It is worth noting that they claimed this horse for 25k and is still running her for above that price (2nd off the jail move). She will be 2/5 but take the likely free space and move on.
#7- Theresa’s Boy- On a day where chalk is likely, you need to find value underneath. I will try this 8-1 ML shot underneath. I am willing to throw out most of her recent races due to running on either turf, off track or bad start. Her last race at Saratoga makes him competitive. Maybe he can get back to that race.
#6- Killala Bay- When you are only 0-4 in this group and taking the big drop in class, it automatically makes you a contender. I am not sure the cutback will help but he has the least excuses of the bunch with some decent speed figs.
Race 3- Entry / 5
I am actually hoping Rachel’s Blue Moon scratches out of this race so that I can have a little value to bet on Out of Orbit who looks like a mile above the rest in this field. If OOO happens to scratch I may take a shot with Pink Twist on top.
Race 4- ENTRY-4-3
RICE Entry- Unlike in Race 3, this entry is far from a lock if they both run. Linda Rice usually does her best running with horses going 2nd time out and it is concerning with Linda is going first time out at the MCL ranks. Of the two I greatly prefer Dr.Lloyd who is bred to win early and prefer sprinting. Silver Token might want a bit more ground.
#4- Cause for Applause- If for some reason Dr. Lloyd is a scratch, I will make this firster for Christophe Clement my top pick. Clement does not do well with first time starters in MCL races but this horse is bred to win early. This is a great race to listen to Maggie for a tip or two. If she likes what she sees from this one, this is probably the value play.
#3- Rally Cap- Another class dropper (might be the theme of the early Pick 5). Handal does well with this move and might wake up if none of the firsters show up.
Race 5- 3-8-1
How about a quick rundown for each runner in this interesting race that closes out the All maiden Pick 5:
#1- Katama Moonlight- Your likely favorite is a play against for me. As much as Chad Brown excels at each stat, he does not do great with Sprinting 2yo going first time out. This horse will have to break from the fence which is not easy and is not bred to be a sprinter. I will include on my tickets but I will not put a win bet on this likely chalk.
#2- She’s a Blackbelt- Despite being the 2nd longest price on the ML, there are some things to like here. She has run decently if you just look at her dirt races. She is bred to sprint so she might improve off the cutback. The dam had 3 starters, two of which won as a 2yo including 1 stake winner. Do not ignore underneath at a price.
#3- Cariba- This is a dart throw but I am willing to give this one another chance after a disappointing first voyage. That day this expensive daughter of Cairo Prince took some money at the windows and appeared to be very green around the track. That day, she ran on a muddy track which might have been the reason. She is bred to be a good thing, and the price will be right.
#4- Noble Alma- She showed speed first time out but quickly quit. She appears to be an outsider.
#5- Mahkato- Thank you, next
#6- Carnarsie Girl- Not my girl.
#7- Moon and Stars- Dutrow usually does not have them cranked up first time otherwise I may bite. Keep a close eye on this one in the paddock and on the toteboard. If she takes money, watch out.
#8- Birdy Num- She cost a million but I think this is just a prep race for her. She is a daughter of Tapit and will probably want longer. Thomas Albertrani does not excel with first time starters.
#9- Cover Photo- Another who appears to might want longer but is well positioned and has win early pedigree.
Race 6- 3/Entry
Race 7- 2-3-7
#2- Sanavi- He looks like the clear horse to beat and will try to win his 4th in a row on fast tracks. He is one of the few horses will enjoy the distance and is expected to have a nice ground saving trip to close into.
#3- Langdarma- Gary Gullo does he best work with horses right off the claim or 2nd off the claim. He is another that should appreciate the distance and I would expect jockey Gutierrez to keep him close to the likely early pace setter, Bon Raison.
#7- Kerry Boy- If you are looking for a bomb to blow up your exotics then look no further. He has made a habit of hitting the board at a big price to pick up a check and it is usually at two turns. Key for third and fourth in your tris and supers.
Race 8- 2-3-7