Most likely the track will be good to fast. Normally the track is kind to speed as the track dries out. It is something to look at and adjust. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends. I’ll be traveling to Atlantic City for the week but feel free to say hi.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 Play- 2,5 / 2 / 7 / 5 / 1,2,3,4,7,8 = $6
Aggressive Pick 5 Play – 2,4,5,6,7 / 2 / 3,4,7 / 5 / ALL = $60
Race 1- 5-2-6
#5- Stonesintheroad – For complete transparency I am a sucker for a Bustin Stones firster. I was the last owner to a horse named Bustin It and since then I have always loved the sire. They are usually fast out of the gate and this one has been training well in the AM. The dam has 5 winners from 6 starters so this filly is bred to run a little.
#2- Abraxan- She has yet to run a bad race but is already a twice beaten favorite. If none of the firsters can run, she is your likely winner.
#6- Countable- Of the two Rice runners I actually prefer the longer price of the duo. She is bred more to be a sprinter and has more of a win early pedigree as opposed to her counterpart. Rice’s horses usually need a race.
Race 2- 2-5-4
#2- Zap Zap Zap- He is by far the horse to beat and will be a single on most of my tickets. It is a little concerning that he is leaving the Rudy barn; a barn that is hard to improve off of. Any of this horses last 4 races put him in the winners circle. It is also worth noting that the horse loves the off going in the likelihood that the track has some moisture in it.
#5- Borsa Vento- This is the price horse that I am going to try to key underneath with the favorite. On the surface it looks like this horse is done. However, this horse has yet to run on a dry track in any of his last 5 races. Her races on a fast track make him a competitor here. In the event that the track does come up less than fast, I would downgrade the horse.
#4- Nobody Move- He is another that would be upgraded on a less than fast track. Some of his best races are in this one-turn mile and he attracts the mile master.
Race 3- 7-5-4
#7- Pier Forty- He was a distant second against a horse that became a monster overnight. Still despite losing by 11 lengths, he was one of the few horses who didn’t completely break down; managing to stay in second. I am not enamored with the favorite considering he has had his chances and there appears to be other speed on paper. He seems to be the likely winner over the favorite.
#5- Klickitat- This is a nice price to wheel underneath. He has yet to get out of the gate, but if he can break clean he should be a contender. He went for about 15x the sire fee so there must have been something they liked. A very interesting price horse for Brad Cox.
#4- Woodbury- He has already burned money for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and there is no reason to think that he will have an improved effort which he will need to win.
Race 4- 5-Entry-4
#5- Deep Sea- Rudy Rodriguez level 2 jail move. Enough Said. If that isn’t enough reason, there is a ton of speed that should allow this stalker the perfect trip. He also does not mind a little moisture in the track.
Race 5- 1-8-4
#1- Movie Score- I really like this private purchase by the team of Rudy and Repole. It is very interesting that Rudy is now his NY trainer after a successful duo with Kimmel. The cutback is just want this horse needs and I hope that the entry gets scratched to bring a little value to this one.
#8- Honey I’m Good- I would imagine that this is the horse that goes off the favorite after his impressive maiden victory. She is another that will appreciate the cutback and should be loaded after a nice break. She is perfectly positioned on the outside and I would actually make this my top choice if she is not the favorite.
#4- Waving Flags- She won impressively for Brian Lynch at 11-1 last time out and now gets lasix. He will need to improve off his last but should not be left off your tickets.
Race 6- 5-6-2
#5- Athwaaq- She lost as the favorite last time out but did so after tiring due to her outside trip. The slight cutback and a better trip should get her in the winners circle. She is also bred to love any moisture on the track.
#6- Proportionality- If not for the lack of off track success, I would lean toward this horse on top. She towers over most of the field when it comes to starts and wins and should be sitting the perfect stalking trip on the outside.
#2- Honey Graeme- Throw anything from this barn out at your own peril. She prefers a fast track but I would not ignore this one in your multi-race bets.
Race 7- 8-5
This running of the Bay Ridge looks like a two horse race and I expect a similar result of what we saw during the Empire Distaff where Bonita Bianca beat Split Time by 6 lengths. Unbridledadventure and Frostie Anne are horses that can fill out your exotics.
Race 8- 7