Hopefully we can have as much fun this Sunday as we did last week. We have a short but very competitive card today. But just in case please check my twitter handle @jailmovemaster for updated picks and analysis once scratches are announced and in case we do not have a fast and firm track.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 6-2-1
#6- I’m an Ocala Dude- Many of these horses are being dropped multiple levels. This tells me the trainers are begging someone to claim away their horse. Most of these are negative angles for a trainer. The one positive angle is Michelle Nevin who hits at a huge rate when dropping horses. The horse seems to like the track and the off going and should have a nice outside post which has been the place to be on wet days. My tepid pick in a head scratcher of an opener.
#2- Javelin- We have not seen this one since the summer and is dropping which leads me to believe that something went seriously wrong with this horse. The break in works between May to October would back up that statement. He will be a short price and the fastest runner but I can’t trust a horse at this price who obviously has health concerns.
#1- Devine Entry- I have made a good amount of money betting against Linda Rice horses dropping. This horse fits the profile except for the fact there is also a surface switch. Linda does a great job going turf to dirt but it would appear that she just doesn’t want this horse in the barn.
Race 2- Will post after scratches.
There is nothing more frustrating than trying to handicap a MTO race with no MTO’s in the race. I will post the selections on twitter. The 2 and 10 are most likely the horses to beat but I would also include the 8. Will wait for scratches until making official picks.
Race 3- 3-2-6
#3- Analyze the Odds- I am not crazy about the downgrade in jockey but this horse is by far the one to beat as evident by his win at this level 3 weeks ago at 1 / 2 odds. I will be playing a very heavy triple bet with this horse and my two prices underneath.
#2- Proximate to Power- If you are looking for a horse to upset my top pick then look no further. Brad Cox off the jail move is something you need to take seriously. He will need to improve this horse about 4 lengths but it is not like we haven’t seen this before. Expect an improvement claiming off of Phil Serpe.
#6- Big Thicket- We scored on this horse back in January as a near jail move. The one turn mile is exactly what this horse wants and gets the mile master to do the job. He will have the perfect post and should be flying late. The perfect horse to include in your exotics and will be the largest price in the field.
Race 4- 10-4-7
#10- Blue Skies Forever – Another MTO race with no real MTO runners (1a is the only horse). My top pick is this 20-1 ML. I believe he has just run the best dirt races against tougher company. He should be rating on the outside which is not a bad thing in a one-turn mile. I do not expect 20-1 but I would not be surprised to see our top pick score at odds of at least 7-1 considering the connections. In races like this, I hope horses like the 8 and 9 draw in and take bad money.
#4- Theresa’s Boy- Rates an upset chance if you go back to his May 20th mile race on the dirt. I just question if this is too far for him. He should be forwardly placed and if the track is playing fair or toward speed, he is very dangerous.
#7- Run for Boston- He has the best dirt speed figures but his lack of any early speed usually leaves him with too much work to do. He is the perfect horse to key underneath. He will likely be your favorite but hard to endorse on top.
Race 5- 9-11-2
#9- Fight On Lucy- For some reason I feel like this race can have a 50k superfecta attached to it but I will stick with the main contenders on top. This horse has improved from race 1 to race 2 and should be upgrade on the off-going. The addition of blinkers and a cleaner break from the gate can put her on top at decent odds.
#11- Flush- This 180k daughter of Violence is bred to be a good state bred. Kiran usually needs to give his 2yos a race but I would not be surprised to see this one run well. The dam has 5 winners from 8 starters which includes 2 Stake winners.
#2- Midnitesalright- Your most likely favorite is projected to be on the lead which is not a bad thing on a fair track with no known speed elsewhere. You have to like a horse who has improved each time out and this one is going to break her maiden soon.
Race 6- 7-9-2
#7- Saratoga Heater- Let’s try to light up the tote board with my top two picks. This 10-1 shot gets the 10lb bug and with a decent ride I think this one will outrun his odds. I find it very interesting that Rudy is showing enough confidence to double his claim price despite losing a sprint race by 5 lengths last time out. The two prior starts you can strike a line through since they came on the green. If he runs back to his April 7th race at this same level, he fits. Rudy also has a bullet 5f workout with this horse which is usually his “tell”. Rudy looks confident so I will be as well.
#9- Bluegrass Flash- I like that this horse can win on the lead or rating, and with the outside post Jockey Hector Diaz will be able to decide what is best. He is a horse who likes to cash checks but not win. I see why that shouldn’t change today.
#2- Rectify- He has been a popular item at the claim box which is often a good sign. However he as is inconsistent as a horse as they come. Your guess is as good as mine as to which Rectify shows up today.
Race 7- 3-1-4
#3- Wine Not- Something tells me he will go off the favorite come post time, but if the odds stay similar to that of the morning line then I will be placing a nice win bet on this horse. He has just flat our faced tougher and is more experienced than most of this rivals. The last two times he ran the one-turn mile he lost to a next out winner and had a win. Last time out he lost by a length to Stan the Man.
#1- Business Cycle- It took a while to break his maiden but he did face some tough customers. Sometimes when a horse like this breaks his maiden and taste victory they just don’t stop losing. Still I think the 5/2 odds is a huge underlay on this horse and will need to improve to win here.
#4- Eagle Pass- I am not sure what happened last time out. Maybe he didn’t like the track. Maybe he is a wet-track specialist. But I am expecting him to get back to that September 9th race which will make him a contender here at big odds.
Race 8- 2-3-10