Some quick comments on Sunday’s Card at the Big A.
- 3-1-5 – Short field in the opener, and Chad Brown sends second time starter Royal Flag, who ran out of track when debuting at six panels. Now has an additional quarter mile to work with and looks like a very likely winner. First time starter Candy Money seems to be his most feared rival, with good works for his debut run for trainer Michael Trombetta. If he can get an easy lead, he can be dangerous. We are Family has had many chances (0 for 11), but from the rest, he is the one that should complete the 1-2-3.
- 1-7-6 – In this NW3L field I will side with the fillies that have faced this condition the least amount of times. That last win of Ma Meatloaf was good enough to make me think he can repeat right back, and she should a nice setup to come from just off the pace. Has two solid breezes in preparation. Floss Dancer goes second after a bit of a layoff and now gets a much better trip for her (8 furlongs). Good outside post enhances her chances. Intersect is probably the speed of the speed, maybe the 8 furlongs is a bit too long for her, but the track has been favoring speed and she can be long gone.
- 5-3-6 – Macho Boy was gelded after his last effort and after that has worked four times, showing renewed energy. In this group, we don’t see much speed signed in and Cancel has been riding very well lately. Grito de Pablito debuted in a much tougher group than this one, drops now to a more realistic spot, gets first time Lasix and also was gelded. Should fare much better here. Money Ride had his share of trouble in his most recent, gets a better post now and doesn’t have to improve a lot to score in here.
- 1-5-7 – The entry looks like a solid 1-2 punch here. Later Cat should be carving out the early fractions in that first flight while Spectator Sport will be coming from off the pace. Both are extremely live in here. Yankee Division just broke his maiden, and with only four lifetime appearances, there is still upside potential. Receives a good jockey upgrade, now under Reylu Gutierrez. Digital Footprint drops sharply in class and Asmussen takes the blinkers off and switches him to the main track, looking for a reversal in form.
- 6-2-1 – Majid will face much less accomplished horses today than in his previous races, and from that outside post should be on the early mix from the gitgo. The mile trip suits him well and returns from a quick vacation with five works, two bullets included. Harper’s First Ride ships from Laurel after three consecutive wins. Is a good sign that a high percentage trainer in Maryland ships a horse to New York. Will be coming late with his run and is in tip top shape, which makes him dangerous. Veteran and always reliable Felix in Fabula completes the 1-2-3. He loves Aqueduct and has been in the money in 20 out of 26 lifetime starts. He is facing better horses now, but can’t disregard at all.
- 2-4-8 – In my opinion this is the most difficult race to handicap in all afternoon. I had first a set of candidates, but I changed and I am recommending a whole new 1-2-3. Color Chart is the most inexperienced in this bunch, and that is the main reason I like him. It is true he has been running in Finger Lakes, but if Englehart pencils him here, it’s because he is confident of her chances. Excess Capacity has been a huge disappointment, but in this group she will be forwardly placed from the start and her chances to score in such a los quality group are big. Jennemily can be the one that dictates the pace in this race, and that run on the turf should improve her fitness level coming back to the main track. Good outside post.
- 1-3-2 – Hay Field looks extremely tough in this group, against horses she has beaten consistently. She should be part of that early flight and the six and a half furlongs are right up her alley. Puffery will probably be sent to the lead by Junior Alvarado, and he hopes to encounter a fast enough main strip to try to wire this field. Timely Tradition beat my top pick five months ago, if she returns to that form she can upset the favorite.
- 7-1-2 – The two top picks ran last November 16 and it was Big Q that ran away with the win. Now there are some factors that favor Time Limit; first is the post position and second l, and most importantly, I don’t see anyone that can present opposition up front to her. So I think the tables can be turned today, but both fillies have the best chances in here. We complete the selection with Sure Stitch, who debuts in a stakes race, something I always see as a sign of confidence from the connections. Junior Alvarado has been red hot lately.
- 10-1-6 – Principal Dancer drops from MSW to claimers, and has faced some next out winners in his two races. Trainer H. James Bond hits at a 33% rate turf to dirt and at a 22% clip dropping from MSW to Claimers. Has been working steadily for this race. Apex Predator actually came in front in his penultimate race, only to be disqualified. He is the fastest of this bumch, and, as I always tell you, in these groups, there are no big late runs. The Joke’s on You is another one dropping from allowance to claimers, and is wearing blinkers for yhe first time. Speed figures have been decreasing, but in this weak group, he should make his presence felt.