Quick write up today since it appears to be a bit of a chalk fest and racing on the turf is in doubt. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 2 / 3,6 / 1 / 4,6,8 / 1,4 = $6 (Many times)
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 2/ 1,2,3,6 / 1,4 / 4,6,8 / 1,4,6 = $36
Race 1- 2-4
Fort Worth was supposed to be one of Pletcher’s good ones when he debuted down south. With a clean break he should win easy.
Race 2- 3-6-2
This is an ultra competitive race despite only 6 horses signed on. We also have two giant Jail moves, and will be using this angle to structure our tickets. #3- Stabilize will be the top pick with a huge trainer and jock upgrade. Rob Atras will have to upgrade this horse big time to win as evident by already losing to Warrens Vengeance and Quietude in his last three races. Still, this barn has worked magic before and it’s a good spot to find value. #6 Warrens Vengeance is another jail move, an angle that I love from Linda Rice, but it is hard to move horses up from the Rudy barn and she has selected a jock that is not known to be her go-to. She is still projected to be forwardly placed and has the perfect post. Should sit the trip if Rice can upgrade her. #2 Quietude would be a live contender if the track turns up less than fast. #1 Diamond Princess was even money when she lost to Quietude (60-1) back in January. She can win, but I am not in love at this price.
Race 3- 1-4 (Turf) / 7-6 (Off turf)
Race 4- 6-4-8 (Turf) / 8-4-1 (Off turf)
Turf- #6 Duncastle will be a nice jail move for Tom Morley. He is not known for being great with this angle but this is a 4yo running against younger, and she has a few nice runs on the lawn. She can upset at a price since the world will be keying on the 4 and 8.
Race 5- 4-1-6
#1 Standard Deviation will be taking a ton of money due to his last race, when he cased Global Campaign down south. My only concern with the horse is the lack of early zip and the cut back in distance. I think the mile will set it up perfectly for #4 The Right Path, who should get first jump on the heavy chalk. Don’t overlook #6- Back to Back who may try to wire this field and gets the services of Centeno. Although he shipped up North to ride in the feature, he can make some noise here.
Race 6- Turf (6-4-1) / Dirt (5-1-8)
Race 7- 5-4-6
I will be siding with the Mile Master and #5 Sandy Lane to win what appears to be the toughest race on the card. I love the jump in class off a loss and it appears that Klesaris has been improving this horse each time out since getting her in the barn. #4- Special Story is a horse I wanted to put on top but she appears to be a need the easy lead type and I am not sure she will be able to get it so easy with Flatexcel in the race. #6- Desert Light helped me close out a Pick 5 last month and appears to also be improving each time out. Definitely a nice race to spread in your Late P4 tickets.
Race 8- 9
#9 Queen of Bermuda will be my best bet of the day and if I knew I could get the 5/2 ML on this horse, I would send it in now. She was my choice to win back on BC day and with a little more luck, would have at least gotten 2nd place. Expect her to win here and be among the top of the 3yo class this year.
Race 9- 1-2-6 (Turf)