GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 458: 107-90-76, -17.2% ($916 wagered, $752.00 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.4%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.6%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
Race 1
1 – Daria’s Angel – drops back into optional claiming company after two commendable tries in the allowance ranks, and more importantly returns to a track where she’s won four out of seven and has never missed the exacta. Draws the rail for the always-reliable Rob Atras barn and has the tactical speed to get into a nice spot early. Though she’s never won at today’s seven-panel distance (5: 0-2-1), she has showed herself nicely in those tries and looks primed to fire in her third start off the bench. 1-3-2
Race 2
9 – Smack – her four career tries have come on the grass and she’s been in the trifecta in all of them, the most recent effort being a brutal beat on the wire where she really flashed nice tactical speed. Joel stays in the irons for the return-try today, and in a field that might not have much speed I think she’s a prime candidate to take them right around up front. 9-7-2
Race 3
12 – Devoted Kitten – taking a swing with the Monmouth shipper for Danny Gargan from the way-outside post. He’s coming back after breaking the maiden at the Jersey shore over Labor Day weekend, and the barn connects with 20% of runners on the 61-180 day layoff. He had two nice stalk-and-pounce trips at Monmouth, both at today’s distance, and he’ll get the services of excellent turf rider Jose Lezcano here today. Watch out at a price, especially if the pace gets hot. 12-10-2
Race 4
5 – Somebody – go ahead and draw a line right through the Saratoga effort as he was probably in over his head and then bumped heels and checked at the top of the lane before fading. He hasn’t been seen since and pops up today for a barn that does very well off this break. More importantly he gets back to the friendly confines of Ozone Park and his preferred Aqueduct main, where he owns a win and two place efforts in four career tries. His speed figures fit in nicely here and if he flashes the early speed that got him his maiden win back in April he should be right in the thick of it on the turn for home at a price. 5-1-3
Race 5
7 – Aziza – on paper the debut doesn’t look like much losing by 10 lengths to a far superior horse, but on the replay you can see she gained some steam late and passed a few in the process. If Johnny V can avoid the wide trip and break clean I think there was enough there in the debut to back at a square price for a barn that hits with 27% of their second-start maidens. 7-2-4
Race 6
5 – Instilled Regard – I’m going with two “trends” here in that I’m backing the “other” Chad while also following Irad in the midst of his current hot streak. This horse ran 4th in the Kentucky Derby and is on somewhat of an odyssey, finding himself in only his third career turf try while coming off the long layoff in a very salty race with a favorite from his own stable. Naturally I would assume Irad would get the mount on the Irish-shipper in the North American debut, and though Javier is nothing short of magnificent in his own right I’m going to follow my gut and hope Flavius gets crushed at the windows to the benefit of our price on Irad. 5-6-8
Race 7
1 – Philanthropic – speaking of Irad, I’ll make this one simple…. He’s on the Jason Servis speedster in a field that doesn’t have much speed. I think she breaks and doesn’t look back, and I’ll be singling in the late pick 5. I like the two outside horses to round out the chalkiest trifecta of the day, but this race for me is all about getting through in the horizontal wager. 1-6-7
Race 8 – The Artie Schiller, $150k
1 – Frontier Market – another Chad and my third consecutive Irad selection, but I absolutely love his consistency (10 exacta finishes in 11 career starts) and he should get an ideal pace scenario today being able to save ground inside and use that monster closing kick to mow them down late. Chad has him working sharply and he owns three wins over today’s mile distance (with three other seconds in six total starts). This is a very solid field, so although I’m siding with the most popular trainer / jockey combo I think there’s a chance we still get something close to the 3-1 morning line. 1-8-9
Race 9 – The Atlantic Beach, $100k
11 – Mystic Lancelot – in another race with plenty of speed signed on, I like this Todd Pletcher-trained colt to sit a nice stalking trip with Johnny V returning to the irons for the first time since the debut victory. He ran up against the very-talented Kimari in his last try at Keenland after having gate issues at Woodbine two starts back, so maybe today he finds a better trip? I don’t mind the outside draw in the one-turn races, but he’ll have to break clean and sit a perfect trip behind the inside speed if he wants a chance. If they’re giving us 6-1 to find out, I’m in. Too much talent (and a $450k price tag) to pass that up….11-6-4
Race 10
I say this every week and I’ll say it again today… the last race on these NYRA Saturday cards, for whatever reason, is always pure LUNACY. Today it looks like Chad has the two most obvious choices in Toledo (#3) and Aasr (#6), and as much as they make sense on paper I’m just going to lean a different direction… I’m rolling with Bill Mott and his first-time starter Divine Leader (#5). The $230k Will Take Charge colt makes the debut for a barn that doesn’t usually have them cranked at first-asking, but in a field lacking experience and “wow” running lines, why not take a swing at a big price? The workouts sure look like he’s ready to run, and he gets the services of the very savvy Junior Alvarado. I’ll go 5-3-6 and SPREAD to close the pick 5 because as I said… LUNACY AWAITS.
Have a great Saturday everyone!