Lets quickly get down to business, in a very solid card that we again hope to be running with the cooperation of the weather. Three very good stakes races are part of the offering today for the Big A, so lets go to the analysis.
1st race: 1 Mile. Clm 16000n2L. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Double Deep (#3) – Not much quality in here, and I hate to take a 1 for 13 lifetime horse as the favorite, but, again, not much to choose from here. I think he can get a little more pace from his race nine days ago and Franco stays on board for Rudy Rodriguez. First time since April in which the dirt was his first option.
Confederation (#1) – With only two starts lifetime, he still has a right to improve, although that win on November 2nd was against a very weak group. Apparently there were big expectations for this horse, being bought by the China Horse Club, but now they know that was an illusion.
Call Me (#5) – Pletcher brings him back from eight months on the shelf dropping him from half of where he ran last time out. Not a good sign at all, but hey, we need a third horse to complete our selection, so there he is.
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. MC 20000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.
Burkey’s Babe (#7) – At the risk of sounding repetitive, not happy at all with an 0 for 10 first choice. However, I think the race sets up nicely for her, being the fastest of this bunch and Irad takes the call in a maiden 20, in a card with three stakes races.
Midnight Crossing (#1) – This is her second race since being claimed in California, and she really ran creditably in that first race. Now Di Prima sends her back to where she was claimed and she had more time to acclimate to her new surroundings.
Sacrifice (#3) – Was claimed by $50,000 just a month and a half ago and now he is running for much less than half of this price. If that is not a red flag, I don’t know what it is. If she is alleviated, there is no doubt she is the best of this bunch. But the cloud is too dark not to be scared to take her.
3rd race: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 70k. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
Mihos (#2) – If he repeats what he did first time out, he will be a very tough beat in here, losing by only four lengths to next out stakes winner Vekoma. Now he gets Lasix and Rajiv follows him from Belmont. He was a vet scratch less than a month ago, so I suspect is was not because of an injury.
U R Not So Bad (#6) – Should be forwardly placed from the start right behind the number 5, who should be the early leader. Alvarado will return to the saddle after a nice showing and will be present when all the marbles are counted.
Loverboy Lou (#5) – I like what I saw from his debut run, and should be able to dictate the pace from the latch. I’m very skeptical of being ridden by a 1 for 21 jockey (but a good jockey nevertheless), and being trained by an 0 for 13 trainer.
4th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) ‘OC 40000n2x. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE.
Ghost Giant (#6) – He was eased a lil more than a month ago, but from that time on, he has three very good breezes at Belmont Park, and he stays in the same group than in that most recent race. Before that, he won two in a row, so I expect an improved performance on Saturday.
Discretionary Marq (#9) – Has been a fixture in this group, winning three of his last four races,a nd in the process beating some of his rivals in here. Irad knows him as the palm of his hand and will be sending him to the lead at all costs, his best efforts have been that way.
We Should Talk (#8) – Rosario has been riding him regularly and apparently recommended his trainer to put blinkers on him. He is not that far from the best in here, so he can light up the board with a win.
Off the Turf: 1-9-8
5th race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) ‘Mdn 62k. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
U S S Archerfish (#8) – Don’t like any of the horses that have run already, so I will go with a first time starter out of Arch, a proven turf influence. Leah Gyarmati has solid numbers debuting at the MSW level (17%, +0.98 ROI), so we can expect a good showing from this horse.
Uncle Curly (#1) – The same logic applies to another debut runner, this time for trainer Christophe Clement. Although Curlin is more known for his main track offspring, he has thrown some nice turfers along the way.
Bernardino (#3) – This is the horse that I feel has the more upside of the ones that have experience. He ran a very even race in his debut and was wide on the turns. Now with blinkers off, should be more focused. Franco keeps the mount.
Off the Turf: Same
6th race: 1 1/8 Mile. Discovery-G3. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
Plainsman (#3) – Since Brad Cox took over his training, his improvement has been notable and steady. There should be plenty of pace in the race, so Joel Rosario should be sitting chilly with him about five lengths from the leaders and go after them from the three sixteenths pole on.
Roaming Union (#4) – Goes from Albin Jimenez to Irad Ortiz Jr. That should improve him about two or three lengths. After a disastrous Haskell, has won two in a row and he is a fighter. If he is in the midst of a stretch duel, he can be dangerous.
Gronkowski (#6) – Dropping from Grade I competition, that alone gives him top consideration to score. But what was his excuse for such a no show in the Jockey Club Gold Cup? He had a blistering pace right in front of him, and he only managed sixth? Don’t like him that much.
7th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf). Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Disco Partner (#9) – For a sprint on the turf, I don’t see that much speed signed in here, so he should be on the first flight from the gitgo and that ninth hole should allow him to see where are his enemies. Looks very solid of a good effort in the Breeders Cup. If turf is yielding, will be an iffy proposition.
Kitten’s Cat (#3) – I think Saez will try to put him on the lead, looking at the lack of good initial foot that we have in this event. Had some problems in that most recent effort at Woodbine and he is on the upswing.
Hembree (#1) – A proven wet grass horse that will come flying down the stretch. He broke slowly in the Breeders Cup, so we can draw a line to that one. Jose Ortiz has already guided him to a win and he hopes to have a hot enough pace in front of him for his late run to be effective.
Off the Turf: 4-1-5
8th race: 6 Furlongs. . Alw 75000n1x. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
The Caretaker (#6) – Had his three race winning streak snapped in his most recent start, but he ran very nicely at odds of 27-1 after breaking thru the gate. Now drops back to a group which I think suits him perfectly. Saez repeats with him.
Fully Vested (#2) – Had to go from the rail to go get the lead, maybe he exerted too much of an effort in doing so. The 2 hole is not that better, but I think that last race prepared him well for today. Jose Ortiz takes over from Joe Bravo, and Albertrani is a 24 % trainer when running a beaten favorite next out.
Tommy T. (#4) – It is clear that this is a horse with some problems. Has run only twice this year, with six months in between, and now runs for the first time since July. Comes from gaining a bullet work nomination just last week, so we expect a good performance from him.
9th race: 1 3/8 Mile. (Turf). Long Island S. Grade III. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD
Pollara (#1) – Don’t think she was too keen of the Woodbine surface, and she didn’t have pace to run against. Now she runs her second race after shipping from France, in where she was a Grade III winner. I am sure she will run much better today.
Lady Montdore (#2) – Franco was way too conservative with her on that last race, staying behind a 51.3 pace. I think he will go to the lead today and if she can have an easy enough lead, she can take them wire to wire.
Lady Paname (#10) – She just got up in her first race after a year long layoff, in a distance much shorter that the ones she prefers. Irad comes back on her saddle and we can expect her to come flying in the latter parts of the race.
Off the Turf: 5-8-9
10th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf). Mdn 62k. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Draiotch/ Little Song (1/1A) – Steady pattern of works for both components of the entry in a race in which no one has shown to be any world beaters. My guess is that if it comes off the grass, the 1A will run alone, and Davis has him as first choice.
Mike’s Girl (#7) – Maybe the fastest of them all, now returning to the lawn in which she performed much better than on the main track. This is her second race with new trainer De La Cerda, who is very good with beaten faves on their next commitment.
Trumpit (#12) – That last race was definitely disappointing, but the fact that he is sporting blinkers now makes me think there were some distractions that didn’t allow him to perform at his best. 12-1 is a very good price on this filly, look out.
Off the Turf: 1-14-3