Race 1: Claiming $10,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
5, Theyallcomehome: He’s won three out of his last five, while being forwardly placed each time. Ships in off a win against slightly weaker at Parx, and takes a big cutback in distance. I don’t know if he’s the most likely winner, but in a race with a vulnerable favorite, he’s worth a bet.
4, Haul Anchor: The aforementioned vulnerable favorite, he was in great form early in the year, but was soundly beaten in his last two. Makes his first start since June 23 in this spot. No idea what to expect, and I don’t want to take low odds to find out.
6, Sir Ballantine: This grinding gelding doesn’t have enough early speed to win it, in my estimation, but he’s got a good enough closing kick to be used in the exotics.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, NY-bred, 1 1/16 Miles (Outer Grass)
5, Troubleshooter: This firster goes out for the Christophe Clement barn, which has been hot with their debuters as of late.
6, Dante’s Fire: Stretched out for the first time last out, was a good third while closing into a slow pace. With a bevy of firsters in her, it’s very difficult to imagine how the pace will develop, leaving him possibly at the mercy of a slow pace once again. He’s established some good form, and is worth using in pick 4s and pick 5s.
9, Hellbender: He’s been well-backed in his two starts, but has just missed both times. Should be forwardly placed by Joel Rosario, the big question is if he can kick on.
Race 3: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
8, Bondurant: He’s tried open claimers all year long, but without much success. This is probably the weakest field he’s seen in that span, though, and will get Joel Rosario aboard, a definite upgrade. Ran his best brisnet figure in months last out, to boot.
9, Machtree: Goes first off the claim for Rob Atras, and takes a drop in price from $32,000. His worst race of the year was at 1 1/16 miles, and he’s done most of his running at shorter distances, so he’s a bit of a question mark in this circumstance.
2, Mobridge: Whooped a fairly similar field back in June when trained by Danny Gargan. Now in the Mertkan Kantarmaci barn, he’s making just his second start since July 1. Should be closing late.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 6 Furlongs
7, Hemlock: Will seek to brush off his poor last effort in this spot. Raced gamely two starts back, when he was nailed at the wire while running a big figure. The Mott/Alvarado trainer/jockey tandem is always a dangerous one.
3, Obsessed: $330,000 purchase for the Pletcher barn has been working well in the past few weeks getting ready for his debut.
4, Trash Talker: Finished a good fourth in his dirt debut two starts ago after showing speed. Didn’t do well on the grass last out, but now returns to his preferred surface. He should improve as such.
Race 5: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, NY-bred, 1 1/8 Miles (Grass)
4, Nutzforboltz: Strong-closing gelding has just missed in his last four starts, after making furious rallies each time. Now, he’ll get more ground to play with. Will that play into his style?
3, Steelersfanforlife: Almost wired a similar field last out at 13/1. I don’t think you’ll get that price here, but he’s been rounding into peak form, and Joey Martinez stays aboard. Expect him to send his mount to the lead, and try to slow things down as much as he can.
6, Saltking: Lightly-raced colt makes his third start against winners. He was wide throughout last out, but still closed well for fourth.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
9, North Dakota: The Shug/Forest Boyce combination has been doing well in Maryland, and they’ll try their luck in New York. His late pace figures have been good, and he was a good-closing third last out at Churchill Downs.
2, Brahe: Improved second time out with a strong fourth. Tries straight maidens for the first time in this spot.
3, French Reef: Chad Brown firster is sure to get a lot of money, especially with Castellano in the saddle. I’m never big on betting debuters against horses with experience, but this one has all the credentials of a horse who will fire big at first asking.
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, NY-bred, 6 1/2 Furlongs
8, Collegeville Girl: If you take out her non-effort in the Cotillion Stakes, where she was badly overmatched, she’s been in excellent form when going around one turn. Should find this group just to her liking.
3, Mary’s Girl: She’s been knocking on the door in her last three starts, with runner-up finishes in all those races. In her career, she’s finished second or third nine times, without a win. The perfect kind of horse to use underneath.
10, Carlisle Belle: Deep closer has made good ground late in her last few, but hasn’t won a race since mid-June. That win, incidentally, was at today’s distance of 6 1/2 furlongs.
Race 8: Key Cents Stakes, 2yo, Fillies, NY-bred, 6 Furlongs
2, Playtone: Impressive maiden winner battled on the lead and drew off to victory last out. She’s facing tougher here, but is rapidly improving and has the best last-out figure by a good margin.
3, Time Limit: She’ll try to go to the front and stay there as long as she can. Hung on well against tougher last out in the Matron Stakes, and could very well find the distance right in her wheelhouse.
6, Single Verse: Two-time stakes-placed filly has been consistent in her career, always running figures in the high 70s to low 80s. I don’t know if she has it in her to jump up and beat the top horses if they show up with their best.
Race 9: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, 1 Mile (Grass)
3, Wish Upon: Drops in class after a runner-up finish behind the classy Fifty Five in the Ticonderoga Stakes. Has the most early speed in a race that does not have a lot of proven pace.
2, Altea: She’s been knocking on the door at this level, but hasn’t been able to get it done. Last out, she had a great pace to run into, but did no better than third. Irad and Chad can’t be doubted, though.
1, Music of Life: With grass season over in Maryland, Brittany Russell has sent this one up to New York for a race. She was wide on the turn last out, but still closed decently and lost by 2 1/2 lengths.
Race 10: Claiming $30,000 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, FIllies and Mares, 6 Furlongs (Outer Grass)
5, Ellanation
11, Chiclet’s Dream
8, She’s Dreamin