Two stakes highlight the action for this Saturday at the Big A; the Atlantic Beach Stakes for two year olds on the grass, traveling six furlongs, and the Artie Schiller for three year olds and upward at a mile, also on the lawn. We hope Mother Nature gives us a break with the weather and that these two races stay on the grass, if not, we have back up recommendations for them. Let’s cut to the chase:
1st race: 1 Mile. (Turf). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE
Scotty Brown (#8) – Have been knocking at the door and seems to be the fastest of them all. He already has experimented the wet grass and fared nicely on it, and the little cut back in distance should serve him well in this spot. Saez stays on him for trainer John Terranova.
Southern Brigade (#11) – Have knocked heads with my favorite over the last two races, and on that last clash, he did not have the cleanest of trips, almost falling down at the 7/8’s pole. He needs a hot pace up front, maybe he will not get it, but anyway, he merits consideration as a major contender here.
Wacky Pal (#2) – Of the newcomers in this race, this one looks to be ready for a prime effort first time out for trainer Jorge Abreu, who excels at the maiden special weight level, hitting at a 30% clip. Jose Ortiz takes the call and he should be forwardly placed from the start.
Off the turf: 8-13-11
2nd race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
Southeast (#1) – Of this very inconsistent bunch, this is the horse that shows more stability on his efforts. Draws the rail, always a big plus at sprints at Aqueduct, and comes from firing a bullet at Belmont just six days ago. Dylan Davis should put him right on the first flight from the bell and I like him to start the Pick 4.
There Goes Joe (#5) – Just broke his maiden at Belmont at very juicy 19-1 odds, going wire to wire in an off the turf event. The light bulb angle can be in effect here, and if he can have a clear, easy lead, he will be extremely dangerous. Luis Saez replaces bug boy Martinez and has fired two straight bullet works in preparation for this race.
Vicar’s Legend (#4) – Not much of a winning machine, but then, who is in this race? I like him somewhat because his best races have come in a wet surface, and there is a good chance he will find that on Saturday. Nice last breeze, earning a bullet recognition, don’t be surprised if he comes rolling down the stretch.
3rd race: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 70k. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
Till Then (#5) – Superb effort first time out in which he drew the rail and ran hard all the way to the finish, never giving in against a very promising two year old. Now he has that race under his belt, a better post at the gate and his works have been good and consistent. He will be a very tough cookie to chew.
Mine the Coin (#1) – Trainer George Weaver always have them ready to fire right out of the box (16%, +$1.65 ROI on MSW, and 18%, $0.71 on 2 year olds), and this one seems to be no exception. A $300,000 purchase on the Keeneland sales, he draws the all-convenient rail post and Manny Franco climbs the saddle, and he has been hot at the start of the Big A meeting.
Family Biz (#3) – The most experimented in this field, I think he will be better when he starts routing. Meanwhile, he will be picking up the pieces late if a speed duel develops. First time Lasix for trainer Edward Barker.
4th race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Outer Turf) Clm 40000n2L. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
On Patrol (#7) – He is returning to a spot in which he looms big, his last two races were against open $62,500 claimers, a much more saltier group than this one he is facing today. Franco insists on him and his work pattern tells me he is ready to fire his best shot on Saturday. There is not much speed signed in, so I expect him to be forwardly placed from the latch.
Rockin Jo (#2) – I think he can be long gone from that number two hole in the gate, and his only win so far was at this same turf course. Climbing up the ladder, with options to go lower, its an interesting proposition.
Overnight Success (#3) – Dropping from a first level allowance in which he was sent at 9/2, he had some problems at the break, but in looking at the race, I think he was simply overmatched. Now goes into a more suitable spot and Irad gets back aboard for red-hot Jason Servis.
Off the turf: 13-8-2
5th race: 1 Mile. Mdn 70k. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.
Motagally (#1) – That debut race in which he took part produced a next out stakes winner (Vekoma), and he was fanned 5 wide on the turn. Now he has more ground to relax and I expect a much better effort from him second time out for Chad Brown.
Tacitus (#6) – Jose Ortiz will be looking to put him on the lead from the gitgo, and I don’t see much of that penciled in here, so it can be him all the way from start to finish. Horses for Bill Mott generally are better second time out.
Erlich (#5) – Good effort on his debut run, but I feel he needs to take a step forward in order to beat my two first options. Irad Ortiz is a sizable improvement in jockey from the talented but much less experimented Jimenez.
6th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf). Atlantic Beach S FOR TWO YEARS OLD.
Backtohisroots (#1) – That second place finish looks much better now after Uncle Benny just missed last Friday in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Not crazy about the one post sprinting in the grass, but he should get a nice set up upfront and should be rolling late. His works leading up to this race have been steadily improving and should be in tip top shape for this one.
Gins and Tins (#4) – Was part of a melting pace in his last race, in a track that wasn’t favoring speed at all. Now coming back from close to three months on the shelf, blinkers coming off and Johnny V. getting on board are signs of improvement that should not be taken lightly.
Absentee (#7) – Interesting placement for this horse, who has shown affinity for the main track. Most probably his connections are hoping the race comes off the turf. Anyway, Parx shippers always look good at Aqueduct and the trainer scores at a high rate with shippers (24%).
Off the turf: 1-7-3
7th race: 6 Furlongs. Alw 50000s. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Four Freedoms (#9) – Whenever you see Chris Englehart at Aqueduct and not at Finger Lakes, you need to pay attention. He is been on the board in his last five starts and gets a good hike in class, indicating that he is ready to take on higher challenges. Working beautifully in preparation, and Davis stays on his saddle.
American Power (#3) – Don’t know what to make about that last race, in which he was even money and didn’t fire at all. It is his second race with Linda Rice, and she scores at a 32% rate second after claiming, so improvement is expected. Irad stays up, which is a good sign and he was given a month and a half in his new surroundings.
Malibu Action (#1) – This horse is slowly improving with each and every race and climbs to the allowance ranks for the first time since June. Gets the rail and Manny Franco follows him from Belmont. There is a lot of speed signed in, but if he can rate just a tad, he can be a good upset possibility.
8th race: 1 Mile. (Turf). Artie Schiller S.. FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD
Blacktype (#5) – This is a horse that wasn’t mentioned at any moment as a Breeders Cup candidate, and that precisely is what I like about him. He was pointed to this race all along, and, although his best races have been when he can grab the lead, he has shown the ability to come from just off the pace. Rosario is his regular rider and is in his best form ever.
Bricks and Mortar (#6) – This Grade II winner is returning from a thirteen-month layoff. He is four out of six, and in both races he has lost, he has had more than plausible excuses. In form, I have no doubt he is the best horse in the race, but the long layoff is definitely a concern. He hasn’t missed a breeze since August, let’s wait and see what he can do off the shelf.
Qurbaan (#1) – He has settled quite nicely in the US, with a Grade II win and a Grade I placing on his resume. Found somewhat strange that he wasn’t considered for the Breeders Cup, apparently Mc Laughlin prefers the low hanging fruit.
Off the turf: 12-7-3
9th race: 7 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.
Abominable Snowman (#7) – Some of the worst horses on the ground face here in the finale, so I will go with the horse that has not faced this condition yet. Trainer Michael Dilger checks all boxes with this horse (maiden win last race 28%, $+4.52 ROI) and 35% in claiming races). Cancel repeats with him and he should be prominent from the start.
Takeoff (#5) – If you look at his past performances, it is clear that he is the best horse ability wise. But the fact that he is racing here at the bottom and connections willing to lose money after claiming him tells you he is not even close to the horse he was when he competed in the Grade II Lecomte. Will his class alone enable him to win here? That’s the question.
Spa Jazz (#8) – That last race on the grass was pretty bad, but now I think he is in a much more suitable spot for him. Davis stays aboard for veteran trainer Barclay Tagg and he will be part of that early flight, and does not have to improve dramatically to win in this weak group.